模拟降解去除人工湿地营养物

人工湿地能有效去除水中的营养物,作为净化水质的方法之一,正得到广泛的应用.同时,尝试建立数学模型模拟去污过程,预测处理效果,并为湿地的运行管理提供理论支持.综合比较了目前常用的4种模型:回归方程模型、一级动力学模型、Monod模型和生态动力学模型,从分析各模型的原理出发,提出了各类模型的优缺点及适用条件,对湿地模型的建立具有指导作用.     

A Stream Network Model for Integrated Watershed Modeling

We describe a flexible, computationally efficient stream network model, which forms the core of a simulation framework that spatially integrates the contributions from point and nonpoint sources in a watershed. The model uses the map and stream topology information in the US Environmental Protection Agency’s Reach File 3 to generate a spatially explicit network of stream reaches. Water and materials are routed through the stream network to the watershed outlet, and the routing process accounts for transit times and for possible nutrient losses in streams. This model can be applied wherever Reach File maps or maps from the newer National Hydrography Dataset are available, and it can be combined with models of other watershed processes to create a complete watershed simulation system. We present an application of the stream network model to two watersheds of different sizes in the Patuxent River watershed of Maryland, USA. Simulated predictions of streamflow and nitrate concentrations are either very good or good according to standards developed for evaluating the widely used Hydrologic Simulation Program – Fortran (HSPF) watershed model.     

Design of an Air-Quality Surveillance System for Buenos Aires City Integrated by a NO x Monitoring Network and Atmospheric Dispersion Models

This paper presents an air-quality surveillance system designed to detect the occurrence of air pollutant concentrations greater than a reference level in an urban area. The system is integrated by an air-quality monitoring network and atmospheric dispersion models simulations. An objective methodology to design an urban air-quality monitoring network is proposed. This methodology is based on the analysis of air-quality modelling results. The procedure is applied to design an air-quality monitoring network to control NO _x concentration levels in Buenos Aires City. Results indicate that six monitors will detect the occurrence of concentration greater than the air-quality guidelines with an efficiency of about 67%. Once a violation is detected, results of atmospheric dispersion models will help in the determination of affected areas. Four possible examples are included to illustrate the assistance that the results of atmospheric dispersion models can bring to a better estimation of possible affected areas in the city. Combining these results with the last census data, an estimation of the inhabitants possibly exposed is obtained.     

Comparison of Numerical Street Dispersion Models with Results from Wind Tunnel and Field Measurements

Numerical dispersion models developed and validated in different European countries were applied to data sets from wind tunnel and field measurements. The comparison includes the Danish Operational Street Pollution Model (OSPM) and the microscale flow and dispersion model MISKAM. The latter is recommended for application in built-up areas in the draft of the new German guideline VDI 3782/8. In a first step the models were applied to simplified street configurations. Different parameters as length and height of adjacent buildings and the angle of the incoming flow were varied. The results were compared to recent wind tunnel measurements. In a second step the models were applied to two extensively investigated field data sets from Jagtvej, Copenhagen and G ttinger Straße, Hannover. Intensified and more transparent and accessible validation procedures would be helpful for the thorough user.     

Projecting population trends of endangered amphibian species in the face of uncertainty: A pattern-oriented approach

Amphibian populations have been declining worldwide for the last three decades. Determining the risk of extinction is one of the major goals of amphibian conservation, yet few quantitative models have been developed for amphibian populations. Like most rare or threatened populations, there is a paucity of life history data available for most amphibian populations. Data on the critical juvenile life stage are particularly lacking. Pattern oriented modeling (POM) has been used successfully to estimate life history parameters indirectly when critical data lacking, but has not been applied to amphibian populations. We describe a spatially explicit, individual-based, stochastic simulation model developed to project population dynamics of pond-breeding amphibian populations. We parameterized the model with life history and habitat data collected for the endangered Houston toad (Bufohoustonensis), a species for which there is a high degree of uncertainty for juvenile and adult male survival. During model evaluation, we focused on explicitly reducing this uncertainty, evaluating 16 different versions of the model that represented the range of parametric uncertainty for juvenile and adult male survival. Following POM protocol, we compared simulation results to four population-level patterns observed in the field: population size, adult sex ratio, proportion of toads returning to their natal pond, and mean maximum distance moved. Based on these comparisons, we rejected 11 of the 16 model versions. Results of the remaining versions confirmed that population persistence depends heavily on juvenile survival, and further suggested that probability of juvenile survival is likely between 0.0075 and 0.015 (previous estimates ranged from 0.003 to 0.02), and that annual male survival is near 0.15 (previous estimates ranged up to 0.43).     

Impact of climate changes on pollution levels in Denmark

The impact of climate changes on the pollution levels in Denmark is the major topic of this paper. Variations of the Danish air pollution levels that are caused by climatic changes are studied together with variations caused by other factors (emissions, inter-annual variability of meteorological conditions, etc.). The Unified Danish Eulerian Model (UNI-DEM) was run on a fine, 10 km × 10 km, grid over a space domain covering all of Europe to minimize the influence of the boundary conditions on the Danish pollution levels. This study is based on four categories of scenarios: (i) traditional scenarios, (ii) climatic scenarios, (iii) scenarios with variations of the human-made (anthropogenic) emissions and (iv) scenarios in which the biogenic emissions were varied. The total number of applied scenarios was 14, and a time-period of 16 years was used. The results show clearly that although the concentrations of the major pollutants do not depend too much on the climatic changes, some quantities, in particular quantities related to high ozone levels, might be increased significantly as a result of the warming trends in the future climate. The reason for this phenomenon is explained.     

Competition, predation and coexistence in a three trophic system

Simple ecological models that mostly operate with population densities using continuous variables, explain quite well the behavior of real populations. In this work we propose and discuss the continuous dynamics of a system of three species, which belongs to the well-known family of Lotka–Volterra models. In particular, the proposed model includes direct effects such as predation and competition among species, and indirect effects such as refuge. The model is proposed to explain recent studies about a group of crustacean (amphipods of genus Hyallela) found in all the plain streams and shallow lakes of the American continent. The studied system includes three compartments: algae, a strictly herbivore amphipod and an omnivore (herbivore and carnivore) one. The analysis of the model shows that there are stable extinction equilibria throughout all the parameters’ space. There are also equilibria with stable coexistence of the three species and two interesting binary equilibria: one with stable coexistence of algae and herbivore and other with coexistence between algae and omnivore amphipods. The presence of Allee effect in the algae growth and the existence of refuge for the herbivore amphipod (prey) determine a bottom-up control.     

The effects of disturbance based management on the dynamics of Mediterranean vegetation: A hierarchical and spatially explicit modeling approach

The eastern Mediterranean region has been subjected to intensive human disturbance in the past 10,000 years, mainly in the forms of agro-pastoral activities such as grazing, shrub clearing, and prescribed burning. This disturbance history resulted in the formation of highly heterogeneous landscapes, characterized by high biodiversity. Recent changes in human activities have resulted in a decrease of landscape heterogeneity, leading to decreasing biodiversity and increasing fire risk. To conserve heterogeneity, land managers apply disturbance based management practices, using the same activities that created and maintained landscape heterogeneity in the past. However, the long-term and large-scale outcomes of these disturbances are often unknown, due to the complex response of Mediterranean vegetation to disturbance. Here we report on a spatially explicit, hybrid, and spatially hierarchical ecological model developed by us. The model attempts to predict the outcome of various disturbance based management activities on the long-term spatio-temporal dynamics of five common Mediterranean vegetation types. The model uses a spatially explicit state and transition formulation, with continuous transition functions. Model simulations were conducted on a Mediterranean landscape in Northern Israel, incorporating various disturbance practices that are common in the region. Simulation results highlight the potential of disturbance based management as a tool for conserving landscape heterogeneity, as well as the complex interactions between disturbances and the spatial structure of the landscape in Mediterranean regions.     

Structural changes in lake functioning induced from nutrient loading and climate variability

Climate variability is increasingly recognized as an important regulatory factor, capable of influencing the structural properties of aquatic ecosystems. Lakes appear to be particularly sensitive to the ecological impacts of climate variability, and several long time series have shown a close coupling between climate, lake thermal properties and individual organism physiology, population abundance, community structure, and food web dynamics. Thus, understanding the complex interplay among meteorological forcing, hydrological variability, and ecosystem functioning is essential for improving the credibility of model-based water resources/fisheries management. Our objective herein is to examine the relative importance of the ecological mechanisms underlying plankton seasonal variability in Lake Washington, Washington State (USA), over a 35-year period (1964–1998). Our analysis is founded upon an intermediate complexity plankton model that is used to reproduce the limiting nutrient (phosphate)–phytoplankton–zooplankton–detritus (particulate phosphorus) dynamics in the lake. Model parameterization is based on a Bayesian calibration scheme that offers insights into the degree of information the data contain about model inputs and allows obtaining predictions along with uncertainty bounds for modeled output variables. The model accurately reproduces the key seasonal planktonic patterns in Lake Washington and provides realistic estimates of predictive uncertainty for water quality variables of environmental management interest. A principal component analysis of the annual estimates of the underlying ecological processes highlighted the significant role of the phosphorus recycling stemming from the zooplankton excretion on the planktonic food web variability. We also identified a moderately significant signature of the local climatic conditions (air temperature) on phytoplankton growth (r = 0.41), herbivorous grazing (r = 0.38), and detritus mineralization (r = 0.39). Our study seeks linkages with the conceptual food web model proposed by Hampton et al. [Hampton, S.E., Scheuerell, M.D., Schindler, D.E., 2006b. Coalescence in the Lake Washington story: interaction strengths in a planktonic food web. Limnol. Oceanogr. 51, 2042–2051.] to emphasize the “bottom-up” control of the Lake Washington plankton phenology. The posterior predictive distributions of the plankton model are also used to assess the exceedance frequency and confidence of compliance with total phosphorus (15 μg L⁻¹) and chlorophyll a (4 μg L⁻¹) threshold levels during the summer-stratified period in Lake Washington. Finally, we conclude by underscoring the importance of explicitly acknowledging the uncertainty in ecological forecasts to the management of freshwater ecosystems under a changing global environment.     

Mathematical modelling for conservation and management of gorgonians corals: youngs and olds,could they coexist?

Gorgonian corals are long-lived, slow-growing marine species dominating Mediterranean rocky bottoms. Endowed with complex morphologies they give a structure to the whole community, moreover, being efficient suspension feeders, they play a key role in plankton-benthos energy flow and CO₂${\text{CO}}_2$ storage. Thus, the structure and the development of benthic, hard bottom communities are linked to gorgonian survival. The red coral Corallium rubrum (L. 1758) is a precious gorgonian endemic to the Mediterranean Sea. Harvested and traded world-wide since ancient times red coral is a clear example of overexploited marine resource. This species is structured into self-seeding, genetically differentiated populations, some of which, living in the shallower part of the species bathymetric distribution, was recently affected by anomalous mortality events linked to global climate change. The co-occurrence of overharvesting and mass mortality could dramatically affect such populations. Demographic population models, widely applied by conservation biologists to check population viability and to project population trends over time are fundamental to foster survival of such populations matching harvesting to population growth rates. Therefore we set out a dynamic model of a genetically differentiated red coral population living in shallow waters. This population is characterised by small/young, crowded colonies and high recruitment rate. On the basis of the size–age structure determined for this population, a static life-history table, in which survival and reproduction coefficients of the different size–age classes were reported, has been set out. Demographic data were included in a non-linear, discrete, age-structured dynamic model, based on a Leslie-Lewis transition matrix. Our field data indicate that the recruits-to-larvae ratio is actually density-dependent. Such dependence, positive for low and negative for high density values, was included into the model and the effect of colonies of different size–age classes on recruits-to-larvae ratio was considered to be proportional to the number of polyps they have. We applied such model to simulate the trends of the studied population under different increases of survival and life-span. As some populations of gorgonians actually show the dominance of sparse, big/old colonies and low recruitment rate, while others are characterised by crowded, small/young colonies and high recruitment rate, we simulated the shift from the former to the latter structure increasing survival and life-span. Our results suggest that a dramatic mortality increase of bigger–older colonies (due, in the case of red coral to overfishing) could have determined the population structure we found.