水上事故溢油运动轨迹与环境归宿预测模型的研究进展

以事故溢油在水面上的运动轨迹和环境归宿为研究对象,重点对溢油水下分散过程、岸边黏附及受水流冲刷下油膜质量衰减过程、水体悬浮物对石油黏附/吸附量的预测模型研究成果,以及目前日益受到关注的河流溢油模型的研究进展进行归纳总结。对比分析了不同预测模型结构功能差异和适用性问题,为不同环境条件下溢油事故的后预警、后预测提供模型选择依据和技术支持。最后就溢油模型尚存的一些问题及未来发展的方向进行了探讨。     

多环芳烃在中国两种典型土壤中的吸附和解吸行为研究

采用批量实验的方法,研究了多环芳烃类有机化合物萘和菲在两种中国典型土壤样品(草甸土和黑土)中的吸附和解吸行为,并用一种新型解吸模型--"双元平衡解吸(DED)模型"对解吸行为进行了预测.结果表明,萘和菲在两种土壤中的吸附符合传统的线性模型,解吸行为则表现出明显的滞后现象,且DED模型的预测值与实验结果相吻合.DED模型能够利用简单的理化参数更加准确地定量描述憎水性有机污染物的解吸行为,该模型可为我国的土壤风险评价和土壤环境质量标准的制定等工作提供量化手段.     

Use of ambiguous detections to improve estimates from species distribution models

As large carnivores recover throughout Europe, their distribution needs to be studied to determine their conservation status and assess the potential for human-carnivore conflicts. However, efficient monitoring of many large carnivore species is challenging due to their rarity, elusive behavior, and large home ranges. Their monitoring can include opportunistic sightings from citizens in addition to designed surveys. Two types of detection errors may occur in such monitoring schemes: false negatives and false positives. False-negative detections can be accounted for in species distribution models (SDMs) that deal with imperfect detection. False-positive detections, due to species misidentification, have rarely been accounted for in SDMs. Generally, researchers use ad hoc data-filtering methods to discard ambiguous observations prior to analysis. These practices may discard valuable ecological information on the distribution of a species. We investigated the costs and benefits of including data types that may include false positives rather than discarding them for SDMs of large carnivores. We used a dynamic occupancy model that simultaneously accounts for false negatives and positives to jointly analyze data that included both unambiguous detections and ambiguous detections. We used simulations to compare the performances of our model with a model fitted on unambiguous data only. We tested the 2 models in 4 scenarios in which parameters that control false-positive detections and true detections varied. We applied our model to data from the monitoring of the Eurasian lynx (Lynx lynx) in the European Alps. The addition of ambiguous detections increased the precision of parameter estimates. For the Eurasian lynx, incorporating ambiguous detections produced more precise estimates of the ecological parameters and revealed additional occupied sites in areas where the species is likely expanding. Overall, we found that ambiguous data should be considered when studying the distribution of large carnivores through the use of dynamic occupancy models that account for misidentification.     

Experimental investigation of biodynamic human body models subjected to whole-body vibration during a vehicle ride

In this study, responses of biodynamic human body models to whole-body vibration during a vehicle ride were investigated. Accelerations were acquired from three different body parts, such as the head, upper torso and lower torso, of 10 seated passengers during a car ride while two different road conditions were considered. The same multipurpose vehicle was used during all experiments. Additionally, by two widely used biodynamic models in the literature, a set of simulations were run to obtain theoretical accelerations of the models and were compared with those obtained experimentally. To sustain a quantified comparison between experimental and theoretical approaches, the root mean square acceleration and acceleration spectral density were calculated. Time and frequency responses of the models demonstrated that neither of the models showed the best prediction performance of the human body behaviour in all cases, indicating that further models are required for better prediction of the human body responses.     

What safety models and principles can be adapted and used in security science?

Engineering risk management is comprised of managing operational safety risks on the one hand and managing physical security risks on the other. Although some basic management principles are obviously the same for both safety and security, some important conceptual and calculation differences exist, as is explained in this paper. For instance, safety risk is usually calculated based on the scenarios’ consequences and likelihoods, while security needs to be determined by the assessment of vulnerability, the likelihood of attack and potential consequences. Nonetheless, there are also many similarities. Conceptual models, metaphors and principles that have been elaborated in the safety domain during the past century, many of them based on major accidents and their investigation, can easily be translated to the security domain. In the present study, we will explain how physical security should be seen in relation to safety, and what models and principles, derived from safety science, can be employed to manage the security aspects associated with physical threats.     

What is a static head measurement? Evaluating structural error and implications for regional groundwater modeling

Most groundwater modelers avoid using static heads measured from active production wells because they can introduce a bias into model calibration. However, in the deep confined Cambrian-Ordovician Sandstone Aquifer System in the Central Midcontinent of North America, dedicated observation wells are sparse and remote from areas of most concentrated pumping. As a result, in areas where drawdown is the greatest and modeling is most needed, only static heads from production wells are available for calibration. This paper evaluates two leading sources of discrepancies in using production well data, spatial and temporal structural error (S.E.). A simple Theis solution is used to evaluate the potential magnitude of spatial S.E. when calibrating a regional MODFLOW model with coarse cell resolution. Despite theoretical analyses indicating that spatial S.E. could be significant, statistical analysis of the model results suggests that temporal S.E. is dominant. Long (ranging over decades) or frequent (monthly) head datasets are key in understanding temporal S.E., to better capture water-level variability. In this study, the range in static head observations impacted estimates of the remaining time a well could extract water from the aquifer by 0.1 to 16.0 years. This uncertainty in future water supply is highly relevant to stakeholders and must be assessed in hydrographs depicting risk.     

Measuring direct and indirect treatment effects using safety performance intervention functions

Recent traffic safety research has advocated the use of the Full Bayes (FB) approach to conduct controlled before-after safety evaluations. The FB approach was shown to offer both methodological and data advantages. However, there is still a lack of complete understanding of the role that the model parameters play in the formulation of treatment effectiveness. This paper offers a novel approach to compute components related to direct and indirect treatment effects under a linear intervention model for the Safety Performance Function (SPF). The isolation of a component corresponding to the direct treatment effects enables the analyst to assess the effectiveness of the countermeasures apart from local (site-related) environmental factors. Two case studies are used to demonstrate the approach. The first case study is based on the results published from a previous safety evaluation in Iowa and the second uses a new data set from British Columbia based on the Insurance Corporation of British Columbia Road Improvement Program. The various direct and indirect components have yielded valuable insight into the effects of the model parameters on treatment impacts. Moreover, the calculation of the treatment effectiveness indices have been simplified by providing straightforward equations in terms of model parameters for the computation of their components without resorting to additional algorithms. More importantly, the results can have a significant impact on the economic evaluation of safety programs and countermeasures by allowing the calculation of collision modification factors (CMFs) that vary with time.     

The complex relationship between personal sense of connection to animals and self‐reported proenvironmental behaviors by zoo visitors

The global biodiversity crisis requires an engaged citizenry that provides collective support for public policies and recognizes the consequences of personal consumption decisions. Understanding the factors that affect personal engagement in proenvironmental behaviors is essential for the development of actionable conservation solutions. Zoos and aquariums may be some of the only places where many people can explore their relations with wild animals and proenvironmental behaviors. Using a moderated‐mediation analysis of a survey of U.S. zoo and aquarium visitors (n = 3588), we explored the relationship between the sense of connection to animals and self‐reported engagement in proenvironmental behaviors related to climate change and how this relationship is affected by certainty that climate change is happening, level of concern about climate change, and perceptions of effectiveness in personally addressing climate change. We found a significant, directional relationship between sense of connection to animals and self‐reported proenvironmental behaviors. Political inclination within the conservative to liberal spectrum did not affect the relationship. We conclude that a personal sense of connection to animals may provide a foundation for educational and communication strategies to enhance involvement in proenvironmental actions.     

Minimum area requirements for an at‐risk butterfly based on movement and demography

Determining the minimum area required to sustain populations has a long history in theoretical and conservation biology. Correlative approaches are often used to estimate minimum area requirements (MARs) based on relationships between area and the population size required for persistence or between species’ traits and distribution patterns across landscapes. Mechanistic approaches to estimating MAR facilitate prediction across space and time but are few. We used a mechanistic MAR model to determine the critical minimum patch size (CMP) for the Baltimore checkerspot butterfly (Euphydryas phaeton), a locally abundant species in decline along its southern range, and sister to several federally listed species. Our CMP is based on principles of diffusion, where individuals in smaller patches encounter edges and leave with higher probability than those in larger patches, potentially before reproducing. We estimated a CMP for the Baltimore checkerspot of 0.7–1.5 ha, in accordance with trait‐based MAR estimates. The diffusion rate on which we based this CMP was broadly similar when estimated at the landscape scale (comparing flight path vs. capture‐mark‐recapture data), and the estimated population growth rate was consistent with observed site trends. Our mechanistic approach to estimating MAR is appropriate for species whose movement follows a correlated random walk and may be useful where landscape‐scale distributions are difficult to assess, but demographic and movement data are obtainable from a single site or the literature. Just as simple estimates of lambda are often used to assess population viability, the principles of diffusion and CMP could provide a starting place for estimating MAR for conservation.