人群疏散中"非适应性"行为的研究

本文从人与人的相互作用和社会学、心理学的角度,对人群疏散中“非适应性”行为的理论、计算机模型、模拟原理等进行了较为深入的研究,并以具体实例说明了Building Exodus软件在人群疏散模拟分析中的具体应用,为完善该研究方向的计算机模型和促进软件的开发提供理论和方法的指导.文章得出的结论是：“非适应”人群行为的研究需要从心理学和社会学的角度建立人群中个人行为与社会行为的理论框架.“非适应”人群行为的研究方法必须与紧急情况相结合,而紧急情况是一个由多个人员组成的复杂系统,大量人群环境的模拟需要涉及到人与人之间,人与环境之间的相互作用.     

EVAPOTRANSPIRATION CONCEPTUALIZATION IN THE HSPF‐MODFLOW INTEGRATED MODELS1

In 1988, the Florida Institute of Phosphate Research (FIPR) funded project to develop an advanced hydrologic model for shallow water table systems. The FIPR hydrologic model (FHM) was developed to provide an improved predictive capability of the interactions of surface water and ground water using its component models, HSPF and MODFLOW. The Integrated Surface and Ground Water (ISGW) model was developed from an early version of FHM and the two models were developed relatively independently in the late 1990s. Hydrologic processes including precipitation, interception, evapotranspiration, runoff, recharge, streamflow, and base flow are explicitly accounted for in both models. Considerable review of FHM and ISGW and their applications occurred through a series of projects. One model evolved, known as the Integrated Hydrological Model IHM. This model more appropriately describes hydrologic processes, including evapotranspiration fluxes within small distributed land‐based discretization. There is a significant departure of many IHM algorithms from FHM and ISGW, especially for soil water and evapotranspiration (ET). In this paper, the ET concepts in FHM, ISGW, and IHM will be presented. The paper also identifies the advantages and data costs of the improved methods. In FHM and IHM, ground water ET algorithms of the MODFLOW ET package replace those of HSPF (ISGW used a different model for ground water ET). However, IHM builds on an improved understanding and characterization of ET partitioning between surface storages, vadose zone storage, and saturated ground water storage. The IHM considers evaporative flux from surface sources, proximity of the water table to land surface, relative moisture condition of the unsaturated zone, thickness of the capillary zone, thickness of the root zone, and relative plant cover density. The improvements provide a smooth transition to satisfy ET demand between the vadose zone and deeper saturated ground water. While the IHM approach provides a more sound representation of the actual soil profile than FHM, and has shown promise at reproducing soil moisture and water table fluctuations as well as field measured ET rates, more rigorous testing is necessary to understand the robustness and/or limitations of this methodology.     

MULTIPURPOSE OPERATION STUDIES OF A CANAL-LAKE-RIVER SYSTEM-OSWEGO RIVER SYSTEM,NEW YORK1

Use of systems analysis techniques for setting up flow regulation rules for the Oswego River System, a canal-river system with eight lakes, was examined. Two sets of lake regulation rules were proposed: the rule curve for each lake, and the lake-use priority curves for all the lakes. The former specifies balanced allocation of the storage in lakes to conservation pools and flood control pools and, the latter determines lakes releases depending upon the type of operation, the time of the year, and systems objectives. A generalized mathematical representation of the complex, multipurpose, multilake river systems operation is described. With appropriate measures of effectiveness and details of analysis, the problem was then solved with simulation and optimization. Use of the results in assisting basin plan formulation is also discussed.     

Chemical leasing: cooperative business models for sustainable chemicals management. Summary of research projects commissioned by the Austrian Federal Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry, Environment and Water Management

- Sustainable chemistry - Section editors: Klaus Günter Steinhäuser, Steffi Richter, Petra Greiner, Jutta Penning, Michael AngrickBackground, Aim and Scope Chemicals play a vital role in the day-to-day life of industrialised societies. Their use is not restricted to the chemical enterprises per se, but is a crucial part of production processes in a lot of industrial sectors. Traditional instruments of environmental policy (such as bans, restrictions) can only deal with the most hazardous substances. The Johannesburg Implementation Plan of 2002 calls for more sustainable patterns of production and consumption, and sets the year of 2020 as a goal to use chemicals in a way that human health and the environment are not endangered. Political instruments should not only gather more knowledge about the properties of chemicals, but should also stimulate the environmentally sound use of chemicals. Existing business models should therefore be reviewed in relation to this strategic approach to encourage marketing options with respect to the environmental focus.Main Features Business models were examined for their effects on the consumption of chemicals and amount of waste emissions in relation to their economic potential. Different possibilities for cooperation of supplier, user and disposal companies were elaborated and examined with a view to the specific situation in Austria.Results and Discussion A range of cooperative models – summarised under the term ‘chemical leasing’ - was identified, which can contribute to a more efficient use of resources. 12 main possible application areas (cleaning, lubrication, paint stripping and others) have been identified in Austria. If chemical leasing models were applied in these areas, the amounts of chemicals currently used could be reduced by one third (53,000 tonnes per year). Cost reductions of up to 15 % can be expected.Conclusion The application of chemical leasing models can contribute considerably to achieving more sustainable and resource-efficient patterns of production. The Austrian Ministry for Environment has therefore decided to subsidise the further practical implementation of these new service-oriented business models. Pilot projects in 4 enterprises, which are supervised by consulting companies, are currently being carried out. Recommendation and Outlook The experiences of the pilot projects will serve as valuable building blocks for the wider use of chemical leasing models. Furthermore, the UNIDO Cleaner Production Centres have expressed their clear interest and will examine the possibility to use chemical leasing as a part of their Cleaner Production Programmes.     

Comparative Evaluation of Three River Water Quality Models1

Abstract: Selection of a biochemical oxygen demand (BOD) reaction model to incorporate into dissolved oxygen (DO) water quality models is an overlooked choice available to river water quality modelers. Data from rivers can serve in screening methods to discriminate between competing water quality models. In this study, 15 published BOD and DO datasets based on a 7 year long study of the Bormida River in Italy are used to calibrate three‐multiorder BOD models: first‐order, three‐halves order, and second‐order, which are then included in three corresponding DO models which incorporate these BOD models. The adequacy of the first‐order, three‐halves order and second‐order BOD models was evaluated by calculating the root mean square error between a model and data. A similar procedure was followed to evaluate three DO models, each of which incorporated one of the three BOD models. The first‐order BOD model most frequently fit the river data best, followed by the three‐halves order and the second‐order BOD models. The DO model incorporating a first‐order BOD model most frequently fit the data best, followed by the DO order incorporating second‐order BOD and the DO model incorporating three‐halves order BOD.     

Dynamic Modeling of Ground‐Water Quality Using Bayesian Techniques1

Abstract: Water industry experts have been arguing that the traditional techniques are not an accurate means of measuring water contamination. This is mainly because these techniques emphasize neither the stochastic nature of the water contamination process nor the precision and the accuracy of the tested methods used by environmental laboratories. In this work, we describe the development and application of prototype Dynamic Bayesian Networks (DBNs) that model ground‐water quality to determine the impact of chemical contaminants on ground‐water quality in the Salalah area, which is allocated to the south of Oman. We also present a new technique for data pre‐processing because it is needed for the treatment of ground‐water datasets that are used as the data source to learn the probabilities for dynamic decision models. Among more than 20 wells in area, only four wells were selected to be analyzed and the results show that we achieved an acceptable level of efficiency.     

基于PDCA模式的化工企业安全文化探讨

近年来,化工事故屡次发生,给国家和人民带来了巨大的经济损失.为了减少化工企业的安全生产事故,有的通过HSE管理体系降低安全事故率,有的通过危险性评价来控制危险源.从文化管理的角度探讨化工企业的安全文化建设问题,以期减少化工企业的安全生产事故. 根据安全文化管理的优势以及化工生产的特点,引入PDCA管理模型,把化工企业安全文化建设分4个阶段,系统地讨论了化工企业的安全文化建设问题,并且形成了一套化工企业的文化建设体系,可供企业参考.     

Invasion of Gleditsia triacanthos in Lithraea ternifolia Montane Forests of Central Argentina

Gleditsia triacanthos and the native dominant Lithraea ternifolia in montane forests of central Argentina, considering life history and demographic traits of both the alien and the native species and different site conditions for population growth (good and bad sites). Matrix models are applied to project the consequences of differences in vital rates for population growth. Analyzing these models helps identify which life cycle transitions contributed most to population growth. Obtained population growth rates are considered to assess predicted rates of spread using the reaction-diffusion (R-D) model. G. triacanthos presents many of the life history traits that confer plants high potential for invasiveness: fast growth, clonal and sexual reproduction, short juvenile period, high seed production, and high seed germinability. These traits would ensure G. triacanthos invasive success and the displacement of the slow-growing, relatively less fecund native L. ternifolia. However, since disturbance and environmental heterogeneity complicate the invasibility pattern of G. triacanthos in these montane forests, the outcome of the invasion process is not straightforward as could be if only life history traits were considered. Great variation in demographic parameters was observed between populations of each species at good and bad sites. Though both good and bad sites signified increasing or at least stable populations for G. triacanthos, for L. ternifolia bad sites represented local extinction. Analyzing the results of matrices models helps design the optimal management for the conservation of L. ternifolia populations while preventing the invasion by G. triacanthos. The predicted asymptotic rate of spread for G. triacanthos at the good site was fourfold greater than the predicted one for L. ternifolia, although the difference was much smaller considering the bad site. The usefulness of the R-D model to study this invasion system is discussed.     

Evaluation of the Fire Simulation Processes of the National Fire Management System's Initial Attack Analysis Processor

The fire simulation processes of the National Fire Management System's (NFMAS) Initial Attack Analysis (IAA) processor were evaluated by conducting two types of sensitivity analysis: one based on a hypothetical set of data to assess IAA's outputs under a wide range of fire input values, and the other using an actual Stanislaus National Forest database to test IAA's validity with a real set of data. The results revealed that IAA's outputs (projected annual number of fires and area burned) were most sensitive, in descending order, to the input values of the fire spread rate, the productivity rates of the suppression forces, and the initial attack time, for all fuel models tested. In contrast, IAA's outputs were extremely insensitive to variations in the fire size at discovery. Changes are necessary in the ways IAA incorporates the fire size at discovery to facilitate the comparison among various fire detection options. The program's “escaped fire situation” analysis was found inadequate, because the projected annual frequencies and final sizes of the simulated escaped fire events produced unacceptable results with the Stanislaus National Forest database. Assigning final sizes to simulated escaped fires according to the fire intensity level in which they are historically expected to occur provides a consistent way of calculation of the projected annual area burned and the consequent cost plus net value change (C + NVC).     

Evaluation of a conceptual model for the subsurface transport of plutonium involving surface mediated reduction of PuV to PuIV

A conceptual model is proposed to explain the transport behavior of plutonium in laboratory columns packed with a sandy coastal soil from the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)'s Savannah River Site. The column transport experiments involved the introduction of a finite step input of plutonium, predominately in the +5 oxidation state, into the columns followed by elution with a low-carbonate solution of 0.02 M NaClO4 at pH 3, 5, and 8. Total plutonium concentrations were measured in the effluent as a function of time. These elution profiles suggest at least two distinct physical/chemical forms of plutonium, each with a different mobility. To explain the observed behavior, the following conceptual model was evaluated: [1] equilibrium partitioning of plutonium (V) and plutonium (IV) between the aqueous and sorbed phases as defined by pH-dependent, oxidation-state specific distribution coefficients and [2] kinetic reduction of plutonium (V) to plutonium (IV) in the sorbed phase. The conceptual model was applied to the column experiments through a one-dimensional advective/dispersive mathematical model, and predictions of the mathematical model were compared with the experimental data. Overall, the model was successful in predicting some of the major features observed in the experiments. It also yielded quantitative estimates of the rate constant for surface mediated reduction of plutonium (V) to plutonium (IV) that were of the same order (10(-4) to 10(-5) s(-1)) as those calculated from batch data both for this soil and for goethite.