INPUT/OUTPUT MODELS AS DECISION AIDS FOR LAKE RESTORATION1

ABSTRACT: Over the past several years, input/output models have been used increasingly as decisionmaking aids in the design of lake restoration activities because they provide an approximation of the link between nutrient influx and lake trophic status. To evaluate the applicability of these models as design tools, a study was conducted in which “before” and “after” data were obtained for 25 lakes which experienced reductions in nutrient inflow, and comparisons were made of observed and predicted changes in lake conditions. Three input/output models were used as predictive tools to describe lake response: those reported by Dillon and Rigler (1974) and by Vollenweider (1975, 1976). Based on described trophic states of oligotrophic, mesotrophic, and eutrophic, it was found that all three models yielded accurate predictions for at least 70 percent of the study lakes. The model of Vollenweider (1976) performed slightly better than the other two (80 percent correct) on the data set studied.     

DEVELOPMENT AND VERIFICATION OF A WATER BALANCE MODEL FOR SUBSURFACE DRAINAGE DESIGN1

ABSTRACT: A water balance model was developed to predict daily water table depths in some corn fields with or without subsurface drainage systems, using pertinent soil and water properties and weather data. The model outputs were compared with the recorded data of observed water table depths. Some statistical parameters such as the mean, standard deviation, the coefficient of correlation, the sum of the squares of deviations, and a nonparametric statistical test were used to study the extent of agreement between the observed and the predicted water table depths. No significant difference was found between the distributions of the observed and the predicted water table depths at the 99% confidence level. The study was conducted on some sand and clay soils of the Ottawa-St. Lawrence Lowlands region in Canada where there is a cool, moist climate and poor natural drainage.     

LAND-USE AND UPLAND WATER RESOURCES IN BRITAIN - A STRATEGIC LOOK1

ABSTRACT: Recent results from the Institute of Hydrology's hydrometeorological and hydrological studies on water use by forest and grassland confirm earlier predictions of a reduction in water yields following afforestation. This reduction is due primarily to the increased interception losses from forests. This paper shows how the water yield from uplands is related to the relative proportions of land under forest and hill farming, and estimates how water yields will change if a greater proportion of hill land is afforested.     

THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN THE TIME BASES OF SIMULATION MODELS AND THEIR STRUCTURE1

ABSTRACT: The time base of a simulation model can be defined as a combination of two time intervals. One is the interval used for input and internal computations. The second is the interval used for the output and calibration of the model. The time base of a model is related on the one hand to the type of applications for which the simulated data are used, and on the other hand to the structure and complexity of the model. The latter may be represented by the number of parameters employed to specify the operation of the model. Using data typical to relatively small watersheds in a semiarid climate, the interaction between the complexity of a series of models and the time bases used by them was studied. This included the effects of the two factors, time base and complexity, on the values of the optimal parameters, prediction of mean annual flow, and general performance of the models. The main conclusion is that if the acceptable time base is longer, the model can be less complex needing fewer parameters. There is also an advantage in using a time base comprising a shorter input time interval and a longer output time interval.     

Shopping studies for regional planning

This paper is based on a shopping study carried out by the Department of Geography, University of Utrecht, during 1983. It is concerned with retail planning research for larger regions and starts with a state of the art review of retail planning research in the Netherlands. The aim, in developing a new research strategy, was to reduce time and costs through using computer facilit es for both data handling and data collection. There is discussion of methodology and some outcomes to demonstrate the possibilities of the strategy.     

WATER QUALITY IN THE PAWTUXET RIVER: METAL MONITORING AND GEOCHEMISTRY1

ABSTRACT: The Pawtuxet River flows from a relatively rural area through some of the more highly industrialized sections of Rhode Island. During its journey, the river receives many municipal, industrial, and ground water sources of metal constituents. The present report is the first in a two part series in which the water quality of this urban river was evaluated by a chemical monitoring study of the sources, transport mechanisms, and fate of cadmium, chromium, copper, lead, and nickel in the river. The second paper will use the chemical data to derive and calibrate a steady-state water quality model for this river. The metal concentrations In the river tended to increase from the headwaters to the mouth with river stations nearest to point source outfalls showing elevated values. In some sections of the river, levels of a few of the metals could not be explained by the point sources; and other inputs, including sediment resuspension, axe proposed to make up this apparent unbalance. The ability of a municipal secondary treatment plant to remove metals was demonstrated, and the tie-in of the effluent from a major chemical company to the plant did not cause any observable deterioration in treatment efficiency.     

UTILIZATION OF MODELS IN WATER RESOURCES1

ABSTRACT: A 1984 survey of water resources personnel was conducted to determine the current and future uses of mathematical models in planning, design and operations of water resources systems. Eighty-six percent of those responding indicated they have used mathematical models in the last year. Lack of appropriate data, inadequate time and funding to do the modeling and lack of models that represent the “real world” situation were the most frequently mentioned constraints to model use. Microcomputers were seen as having a positive influence on mathematical model use in water resources.     

INTERVENTION ANALYSIS OF WATER USE RESTRICTIONS,AUSTIN, TEXAS1

ABSTRACT: Mandatory water conservation in the form of restrictions on outdoor watering, car washing, and recreation was implemented in the City of Austin, Texas, during the summers of 1984 and 1985. Three different stages of restrictions were implemented limiting the number of watering hours per day, as well as a restriction that allowed lawn watering once every five days according to the last digit of the street address, Intervention analysis using a transfer function-noise model of daily water use is applied to assess the impact of the restrictions. Compared to a peak water use rate of about 170 MGD, it is shown that mandatory restrictions in 1984 reduced water use by an average of 13.5 MGD, while similar restrictions during the summer of 1985 reduced usage by an average of 5.5 MGD. Lawn watering restrictions on a five-day cycle produced a corresponding five-day cycle in water use of more than 10 MGD in amplitude in 1985. An alternative lawn watering scheme that eliminates this cycle is prescribed.     

POLLUTANT RUNOFF MODELS: SELECTION AND USE IN DECISION MAKING1

Models for pollutant runoff can be useful in water quality management planning if appropriately structured for the problem at hand. Accordingly, a “top-down” approach is proposed for the examination of extant pollutant runoff models. The approach consists of the identification of objectives and attributes that reflect the needs of planners and decision makers when these models are used for water quality management planning. Ideally, the attributes should concern the effect of model information on improved decision making and the cost of model application. Practical difficulties with the first attribute necessitates substitution of surrogate attributes reflecting model appropriateness, resolution, and uncertainty. Common pollutant runoff models, in particular export coefficients and hydrology-driven simulation models, are found to have serious weaknesses on some of the attribute scales. The “top-down” approach leads to a set of desirable pollutant runoff model attributes; alternate modeling techniques are thus examined in order to identify promising future directions for model development. The focus of this examination is phosphorus, due to its importance in the eutrophication of surface waters. Models for both sediment-attached and dissolved phosphorus are considered. Among the conclusions is the belief that the partial contributing area concept can yield an effective yet simple simulation despite the variable and complex nature of runoff.