河南省武陟县大田土壤重金属形态分布及潜在生态风险评价

为了解河南省武陟县大田土壤重金属Cr、Cd、Pb、As、Cu、Se、Ni和Co的形态分布和生态风险情况,在该区域采集了12个表层土壤(0～20cm)样品,采用修正的BCR连续提取法进行形态分析,探讨其生物有效性,并采用Hakanson指数法评价了重金属的潜在生态风险.结果表明,土壤中不同重金属的形态分布差异很大,其中,Cr、As、Ni和Co均主要以残渣态存在,分别占其总量的66.6％、61.4％、50.7％和41.8％;Cu和Se主要以可氧化态存在,分别占其总量的43.8％和67.8％;Pb主要以可还原态存在,占总量的61.1％;Cd主要以酸提取态存在,占总量的53.3％.生物有效性分析表明,Cd的可利用态K1为0.933,生物有效性是最大的,对土壤生态系统的潜在危害性较大,其次是Pb和Co;Cu和Se在土壤环境发生变化时,很容易再次释放到外界环境中;Cr、As和Ni不易被外界生物利用.潜在生态风险评价结果显示,以国家土壤环境质量标准二级标准为参比值时,Cr、Cd、Pb、As、Cu和Ni的单项潜在生态风险程度均为轻微,综合潜在生态风险处于轻微等级.     

基于序关系法和熵值法的机场安全管理能力综合评价

为了客观科学地评价机场安全管理能力,研究了机场系统构成和安全管理概况,参考民航规章和专家咨询意见,确定安全管理能力的影响因素,建立了由4个准则层和23个具体指标组成的机场安全管理能力评价指标体系,结合实地调研结果及专家意见确定了各指标的测评方法和评分标准。根据序关系分析法和熵值法的特点,参考其他文献,提出了序关系分析法和熵值法相结合的、一种基于方差最大化的主客观赋权法来确定指标权重,构建了机场安全管理能力线性评价模型。结果表明,不同安全管理能力二级指标的变化对安全管理能力的影响程度不同,其综合权重大小降序排列为组织管理能力、人员安全能力、设备运行能力、环境保障能力。以长沙黄花国际机场为例进行评价,评价结果显示该模型具有可行性,能为机场安全管理工作提供参考。     

基于熵值法和物元可拓模型的核电站安全运行状态评价

我国核电事业发展迅速,核电安全是核电产业发展的重要基础.针对我国核电的发展和安全运行现状,建立了安全运行状况指标体系,通过构建物元可拓模型获得各指标在各评价等级上的关联度,将关联度与熵值法求得的指标权重合成得到加权综合关联度,继而确定核电站安全运行状况评价等级.在对核电站整体运行状况进行综合评价的同时,也能实现对安全运行状况各指标的分类评价.     

Lower Leg Injury Reference Values and Risk Curves from Survival Analysis for Male and Female Dummies: Meta-analysis of Postmortem Human Subject Tests

Objective: Derive lower leg injury risk functions using survival analysis and determine injury reference values (IRV) applicable to human mid-size male and small-size female anthropometries by conducting a meta-analysis of experimental data from different studies under axial impact loading to the foot–ankle–leg complex.

Methods: Specimen-specific dynamic peak force, age, total body mass, and injury data were obtained from tests conducted by applying the external load to the dorsal surface of the foot of postmortem human subject (PMHS) foot–ankle–leg preparations. Calcaneus and/or tibia injuries, alone or in combination and with/without involvement of adjacent articular complexes, were included in the injury group. Injury and noninjury tests were included. Maximum axial loads recorded by a load cell attached to the proximal end of the preparation were used. Data were analyzed by treating force as the primary variable. Age was considered as the covariate. Data were censored based on the number of tests conducted on each specimen and whether it remained intact or sustained injury; that is, right, left, and interval censoring. The best fits from different distributions were based on the Akaike information criterion; mean and plus and minus 95% confidence intervals were obtained; and normalized confidence interval sizes (quality indices) were determined at 5, 10, 25, and 50% risk levels. The normalization was based on the mean curve. Using human-equivalent age as 45 years, data were normalized and risk curves were developed for the 50th and 5th percentile human size of the dummies.

Results: Out of the available 114 tests (76 fracture and 38 no injury) from 5 groups of experiments, survival analysis was carried out using 3 groups consisting of 62 tests (35 fracture and 27 no injury). Peak forces associated with 4 specific risk levels at 25, 45, and 65 years of age are given along with probability curves (mean and plus and minus 95% confidence intervals) for PMHS and normalized data applicable to male and female dummies. Quality indices increased (less tightness-of-fit) with decreasing age and risk level for all age groups and these data are given for all chosen risk levels.

Conclusions: These PMHS-based probability distributions at different ages using information from different groups of researchers constituting the largest body of data can be used as human tolerances to lower leg injury from axial loading. Decreasing quality indices (increasing index value) at lower probabilities suggest the need for additional tests. The anthropometry-specific mid-size male and small-size female mean human risk curves along with plus and minus 95% confidence intervals from survival analysis and associated IRV data can be used as a first step in studies aimed at advancing occupant safety in automotive and other environments.     

Effect of Aging on Brain Injury Prediction in Rotational Head Trauma—A Parameter Study with a Rat Finite Element Model

Objective: The aim of this study was to investigate the possible effects of age-related intracranial changes on the potential outcome of diffuse axonal injuries and acute subdural hematoma under rotational head loading.

Methods: A simulation-based parametric study was conducted using an updated and validated finite element model of a rat head. The validation included a comparison of predicted brain cortex sliding with respect to the skull. Further, model material properties were modified to account for aging; predicted tissue strains were compared with experimental data in which groups of rats in 2 different lifecycle stages, young adult and mature adult, were subjected to rotational trauma. For the parameter study, 2 age-dependent factors—brain volume and region-specific brain material properties—were implemented into the model. The models young adult and old age were subjected to several injurious and subinjurious sagittal plane rotational acceleration levels.

Results: Sequential analysis of the simulated trauma progression indicates that an increase in acute subdural hematoma injury risk indicator occurs at an early stage of the trauma, whereas an increase in diffuse axonal injury risk indicators occurs at a later stage. Tissue stiffening from young adult to mature adult rats produced an increase in strain-based thresholds accompanied by a wider spread of strain distribution toward the rear part of the brain, consistent with rotational trauma experiments with young adult and mature adult rats. Young adult to old age brain tissue softening and brain atrophy resulted in an increase in diffuse axonal injuries and acute subdural hematoma injury risk indicators, respectively.

Conclusions: The findings presented in this study suggest that age-specific injury thresholds should be developed to enable the development of superior restraint systems for the elderly. The findings also motivate other further studies on age-dependency of head trauma.     

含多弱层复合边坡滑坡治理三维数值分析

白音华二号矿滑坡区边坡治理工程是针对稳定性差的南帮非工作帮和南排土场构成的复合边坡进行的。滑坡体受多层弱层控制,治理过程中易导致边坡失稳,所以治理工程采取分区开采的条采方案,充分利用边坡治理的三维效应来进行边坡的失稳破坏研究和稳定性分析。选取滑坡区的典型剖面作为研究对象,基于强度折减方法(SRM),应用有限差分FLAC3D软件,在两种开挖条件下,对含多弱层的复合边坡的稳定性规律和破坏机制进行了数值模拟分析,揭示了多弱层对复合边坡的失稳破坏及稳定性的影响。研究结果表明,治理工程中,弱层被揭露一定宽度,滑体沿煤底板弱层水平错动、竖直方向拉裂破坏;随弱层暴露宽度的增加,边坡稳定性明显降低,说明治理边坡具有三维效应;开挖至3-3煤层底板,开挖坡角20°,弱层暴露宽度为400m,边坡的稳定系数刚好达到安全储备系数1.1,建议矿方首选此方案,可以最大限度的回收煤炭资源。     

落石冲击作用下架设油气管道响应分析

针对影响油气管道安全运营的落石冲击问题,基于弹塑性力学、Cowper-Symonds本构模型和有限元方法,建立了球形落石冲击油气管道的计算模型,对管道动态响应过程进行了数值模拟。对冲击速度、落石半径、管道内压力和落石冲击位置进行了参数敏感性分析,研究了各参数对管道冲击变形的影响规律。结果表明:落石的冲击能量主要用于管道塑性变形;冲击过程中,落石与管道的接触区域由初始的椭圆斑逐渐变成了椭圆环;管道塑性变形随着冲击速度和落石半径的增大而增大,随内压和落石偏移度的增大而减小。该研究工作为油气管道的安全评价及防护工程的设计提供了参考依据,对保障油气安全运输具有重要的工程意义。     

连续型空间故障树中因素重要度分布的定义与认知

为了解工作环境条件因素对系统故障概率的影响的特征,同时丰富连续型空间故障树(CSFT)的理论框架,提出因素重要度分布的概念。因素重要度分布从经典故障树的概率重要度发展而来,目的是研究系统所处环境因素变化导致系统可靠性变化的程度。给出元件和系统的因素重要度分布概念、公式及所需基础数据,并分析因素重要度分布的正负分布特点。使用该概念研究元件X1和系统T的因素t重要度分布和因素c重要度分布。结果表明:在不同环境中,对于因素t或c变化影响元件或系统的故障概率变化程度是不同的。因素重要度分布有效地表达了t和c对元件或系统的故障概率影响特征。     

改进经验公式法计算隧道人员疏散时间

为评估隧道发生火灾时人员疏散安全,有必要准确计算隧道人员疏散时间。传统经验公式法的假设条件过于简单,而现有仿真模拟方法不能准确地模拟人的复杂行为。建立改进的经验公式法,通过随机输入计算参数来模拟隧道人员疏散的动态随机过程,将疏散时间计算分解为多个阶段,并考虑车辆及人员的随机分布、火灾探测及人员反应时间的计算、大客车乘客下车时间、人行速度的随机输入、以及随人流密度变化的横洞门通行能力等,使计算所得疏散时间更贴近实际。与其余方法对比分析表明,采用改进的经验公式法得到的计算结果与传统经验公式计算方法相比,计算精度有较大提高。     

页岩气压裂作业人因失误结构化辨识方法研究

为提高页岩气压裂作业人因失误辨识结果的全面性和针对性,建立一种结构化的人因失误辨识方法。通过概括辨识阶段的作业流程,建立作业人员行为模型,概述作业人员的行为阶段。利用筛选出的引导词辨识行为阶段人因失误。将该方法应用于页岩气压裂过程的替液阶段。结果表明,用引导词能明确辨识方向,减少头脑风暴时间以及对专家知识的依赖;辨识过程的动态调整能改善认知可靠性,使更多人因失误模式(与传统CREAM方法相比)被辨识出来。