复杂社会技术系统安全事故的成因结构敏感性及预防对策研究

简要回顾现有复杂社会技术系统安全事故的成因理论存在的局限性,根据大量统计资料和经验总结构建事故成因理论的缺陷。该研究试图从分析和推理入手,根据复杂社会技术系统运行机制及事故成因结构敏感性特征,探索由于新技术快速普及应用而不断涌现的复杂社会技术系统的失效机制及事故的成因理论;解释复杂社会技术系统安全事故的严重程度差异性、时间方向性及情境依赖性;为任何因新技术普及应用而产生的人造系统的安全分析及事故预防提供理论和方法支撑。     

铁路运输传爆药安全性评价

通过对现有传爆药安全性综合评价方法和装载加固评价方法进行改进,建立导弹铁路运输安全评价模型,运用改进型安全评价方法计算出导弹运输实际现实危险度。通过重大事故后果模拟法对运输过程中存在的最大量危险源进行分析、模拟,得出发生事故后产生的对人、物的危害范围。运用装载加固安全评价方法对装载加固方案进行评价,从而得知铁路运输导弹的危险综合程度,该评价模型可为铁路运输部门危险货物运输安全评价提供参考。     

高危作业有害因素预防控制水平预警模型

针对职业卫生领域出现的急慢性职业病及突发性化学中毒等事件,本文采用预防控制水平指标体系,用因子分析法构建了单项有害因素的预警模型。在此基础上,利用加权平均法给出了多项有害因素的综合预警模型,其中,应用层次分析法确定各个有害因素的权重。高危作业有害因素预警模型的提出为高危作业有害因素防治提供了量化的科学依据。     

纳米铝粉对烟火药剂热安全性影响研究

为研究铝粉纳米化后对烟火药剂性能的影响,本文将普通铝粉和纳米铝粉分别与氯酸钾、硫粉按照零氧平衡的同一配比（17％AL＋63％KClO3＋20％S）配成的烟火药剂进行ARC热分析对比试验发现,含纳米铝粉的烟火药剂热分解的初始反应温度降低,反应到达最大温升速率所需的时间延长,反应所能达到的最高压力降低。这说明纳米铝粉的加入在加速其反应进程的同时,可有效地降低其反应的激烈程度和危险性,即铝粉纳米化后可以有效的改善烟火药剂的性能,提高其安全性。     

中国典型河湖水体铅的水生生物安全基准与生态风险评价

采用物种敏感度排序法(SSR)对我国铅的淡水水生生物安全基准进行推导,并以太湖为例进行了流域水生生物安全基准推导。对于难以获得的本土生物毒性数据,开展了相应的毒性试验。获得了我国国家与太湖流域铅的水生生物安全基准值,基准最大浓度(CMC)分别为63.92、104.26μg·L-1,基准连续浓度(CCC)分别为1.21、4.06μg·L-1。同时,对我国主要河流以及太湖流域进行了铅的生态风险评价,联合概率曲线法显示影响5%水生生物种类的概率分别为66.22%和43.19%,熵值法则显示中国主要河流存在较大的铅暴露风险,因此,我国铅的潜在生态风险较大,主要河流与太湖流域存在铅污染问题。     

Performance of IUCN proxies for generation length

One of the criteria used by the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) to assess threat status is the rate of decline in abundance over 3 generations or 10 years, whichever is longer. The traditional method for calculating generation length (T) uses age‐specific survival and fecundity, but these data are rarely available. Consequently, proxies that require less information are often used, which introduces potential biases. The IUCN recommends 2 proxies based on adult mortality rate, = α + 1/d, and reproductive life span, = α + z^*RL, where α is age at first reproduction, d is adult mortality rate, RL is reproductive life span, and z is a coefficient derived from data for comparable species. We used published life tables for 78 animal and plant populations to evaluate precision and bias of these proxies by comparing and with true generation length. Mean error rates in estimating T were 31% for and 20% for , but error rates for were 16% when we subtracted 1 year ( ), as suggested by theory; also provided largely unbiased estimates regardless of the true generation length. Performance of depends on compilation of detailed data for comparable species, but our results suggest taxonomy is not a reliable indicator of comparability. All 3 proxies depend heavily on a reliable estimate of age at first reproduction, as we illustrated with 2 test species. The relatively large mean errors for all proxies emphasized the importance of collecting the detailed life‐history information necessary to calculate true generation length. Unfortunately, publication of such data is less common than it was decades ago. We identified generic patterns of age‐specific change in vital rates that can be used to predict expected patterns of bias from applying .     

Estimating willingness to pay for a threatened species within a threatened ecosystem

This study conducts a choice experiment to determine the willingness to pay for Palouse Prairie conservation. The giant Palouse earthworm (Driloleirus americanus), a rare species endemic to the Palouse region, is included as an attribute of conservation and serves as a method for determining the willingness to pay for protecting the species. This method evaluates the value of the earthworm as an attribute of an overall willingness to pay for threatened ecosystem preservation rather than a direct willingness to pay for protecting the species. This method is expected to yield a more accurate measure of willingness to pay for rare species. The annual willingness to pay per household for the giant Palouse earthworm is $20.45 based on the conditional logit model and $19.30 based on the mixed logit model. Ranking and relative importance are included as methods for representing a non-monetary value and importance of the giant Palouse earthworm.     

Corynebacterium glutamicum as an indicator for environmental cobalt and silver stress–A proteome analysis

Cobalt and silver are toxic for cells, but mechanisms of this toxicity are largely unknown. Analysis of Corynebacterium glutamicum proteome from cells grown in control and cobalt or silver enriched media was performed by two dimensional gel electrophoresis (2DE) followed by mass spectrometry. Our results indicate that the cell adapted to cobalt stress by inducing five defense mechanisms: Scavenging of free radicals, promotion of the generation of energy, reparation of DNA, reparation and biogenesis of Fe-S cluster proteins and supporting and reparation of cell wall. In response to the detoxification of Ag⁺ many proteins were up-regulated, which involved reparation of damaged DNA, minimizing the toxic effect of reactive oxygen species (ROS) and energy generation. Overexpression of proteins involved in cell wall biosynthesis (1,4-alpha-glucan branching enzyme and nucleoside-diphosphate-sugar epimerase) upon cobalt stress and induction of proteins involved in energy metabolism (2-methylcitrate dehydratase and 1, 2-methylcitrate synthase) upon silver demonstrate the potential of these enzymes as biomarkers of sub-lethal Ag⁺ and Co toxicity.     

高碱度水库水混凝过程中残留铝控制

针对高碱度水库水源的某水厂残留铝超标问题,选取碱化度(B)与Alb含量不同的3种铝盐絮凝剂,研究不同投量与pH值下混凝效果与残留铝浓度水平。结果表明,碱化度和Alb含量显著影响混凝效果。DOC和浊度的去除率随着3种絮凝剂AlCl3(B=0)、PACl-1(B=1.2)、PACl-2(B=2.2)投量增大而升高。3种絮凝剂投量在1.5～2.0 mg/L(以铝计)范围内,总铝和溶解铝含量最低。对于该水厂自制的絮凝剂PACl-2,可通过降低絮凝剂碱化度,或将水的pH值降低至7～7.5之间,以此可以提高PACl-2混凝效果,而且可以降低出厂水残留铝浓度。考虑工程应用可行性,可优先考虑调整絮凝剂生产工艺。     

电器防雷滤波技术探讨

我国是雷电多发地区,在我们日常生活中电器经常会被雷电击坏或不能正常工作。本文就产品设计中我们常采用的一种既防雷又解决滤波的防雷滤波技术讨论,并加以验证。