灰色系统理论在高校学生公寓火灾风险评价中的应用

针对高校学生公寓火灾的安全问题,参考相关标准、征求专家意见,建立了高校学生公寓火灾风险评价指标体系,并确定了权重。在此基础上,根据灰色系统理论原理对高校学生公寓火灾风险评价进行研究,建立评价模型,运用改进后的多层次灰色关联度分析法对青岛市某高校10#学生公寓的火灾风险进行评价,得出火灾风险等级为二级,即安全。研究结果表明,所建立的评价模型对学生公寓火灾的风险评价具有良好的应用价值,也为火灾风险评价提供了一种新的综合评价方法。     

层次分析法在生活垃圾处置方案优选中的应用

对于如城市生活垃圾处置技术方案优选这类多目标、多方案决策问题,特别是在决策缺乏充分的信息支持前提时,AHP分析法的若干特点,显示其作为一种系统工程的理论工具具有一定的客观性、准确性和有效性,是一种简易而且可行的理论方法和手段。通过以某经济开发区生活垃圾处置方案的优选为例进行了探讨。     

模糊综合评价在建筑机械管理中的应用

应用模糊综合评价方法对建筑机械管理进行定量的综合评判,以期能够定量地预警。     

工程材料LCA中环境效益的分析与研究

论述了材料环境效益性的目标因素,详细分析产品材料在LCA中的环境效应性、能量消耗性和经济回收性;通过LCI分析建立环境效应、能量度量、经济度量的决策模型和数学模型实现材料环境效益性的目标;先整体定性分析LCA工艺,再定量计算环境效益的三属性值,建立目标函数、分层优化算法确定影响因子和相应的权重系数之间的关系以及对产品材料的环境效益性的影响,最后以家用小型风扇回收处理中各种材料环境效益性为例进行具体分析和决策,进一步明确和决策优化出环境效益性好的工程材料。     

废弃采石场植被自然恢复过程中物种多样性变化特征

以浙江省舟山市的废弃采石场为例,在对植被情况进行调查的基础上,采用时空互代的方法,探讨废弃采石场植被自然恢复过程中物种多样性的变化规律. 结果表明:随着废弃地自然恢复年限的增加,植物种的组成发生较大变化,由单一的物种组成结构逐渐发展为复杂的物种组成结构,并逐渐趋于动态平衡. 在近50 a的自然恢复过程中,在样方中共出现20科40属42种植物,其中以禾本科和菊科为主. 在整个自然恢复过程中,群落物种多样性指数(H′,D)、丰富度指数(Ma,Pa)和均匀度指数(Jp,Ea)随植被恢复表现出由低至高而后又降低的变化趋势. 均匀度指数(Jp,Ea)在15～<25 a达到峰值,而多样性指数(H′,D)和丰富度指数(Ma,Pa)的峰值则出现在25～<40 a. 根据不同恢复年限群落物种种类的演替特征和物种多样性指数的变化规律,可大致将研究区废弃地植被自然恢复过程划分为初级演替期(<9 a)、初级交替期(9～<15 a)、高级交替期(15～<25 a)、高速恢复期(25～<40 a)以及恢复稳定期(40～50 a)5个演替阶段.      

硝酸改性活性炭对渗滤液中小分子有机物的吸附性能

以硝酸为改性剂,分别采用浸渍和浸渍-高温热处理方法对活性炭进行了改性.低温氮吸附结果表明,活性炭表面积和微孔体积在浸渍后都变小,再经过高温热处理后则都变大.酸碱滴定显示,改性后活性炭表面酸性都增大,其中浸渍的酸性最大.对填埋场渗滤液中小分子有机物进行了等温线和动力学吸附实验,结果发现改性后活性炭对有机物的吸附量增加;硝酸浸渍活性炭吸附速率降低,而浸渍-高温热处理则使吸附速率明显加快.针对渗滤液中小分子有机物,硝酸浸渍-高温热处理的活性炭吸附效果最好,吸附量最大,吸附速率最快.     

Trophic field overlap: A new approach to quantify keystone species

It is a current challenge to better understand the relative importance of species in ecosystems, and the network perspective is able to offer quantitative tools for this. It is plausible to assume, in general, that well-linked species, being key interactors, are also more important for the community. Recently a number of methods have been suggested for quantifying the network position of species in ecological networks (like the topological importance metric, TI). Most of them are based on node centrality indices and it may happen that the two most important species in a food web have very similar interaction structure and they can essentially replace each other if one becomes extinct. For conservation considerations it is a challenge to identify species that are richly connected and, at the same time, have a relatively unique and irreplaceable interaction pattern. We present a new method and illustrate our approach by using the Kuosheng Bay trophic network in Taiwan. The new method is based on the interaction matrix, where the strength of the interaction between nodes i and j depends only on topology. By defining a threshold separating weak and strong interactors, we define the effective range of interactions for each graph node. If the overlaps between pairs of these ranges are quantified, we gain a metric expressing how unique is the interaction pattern of a focal node (TO). The combination of centrality (TI) and uniqueness (TO) is called topological functionality (TF). We compare the nodal importance rank provided by this metric to others based on a variety of centrality measures. The main conclusion is that shrimps seem to have the most unique interaction pattern despite that their structural importance has been underestimated by all conventional centrality indices. Also, our network analysis suggests that fisheries disturb the ecosystem in a more critical network position than the impingement by the local power plant.     

Traditional occupancy–abundance models are inadequate for zero-inflated ecological count data

Traditional occupancy–abundance and abundance–variance–occupancy models do not take into account zero-inflation, which occurs when sampling rare species or in correlated counts arising from repeated measures. In this paper we propose a novel approach extending occupancy–abundance relationships to zero-inflated count data. This approach involves three steps: (1) selecting distributional assumptions and parsimonious models for the count data, (2) estimating abundance, occupancy and variance parameters as functions of site- and/or time-specific covariates, and (3) modelling the occupancy–abundance relationship using the parameters estimated in step 2. Five count datasets were used for comparing standard Poisson and negative binomial distribution (NBD) occupancy–abundance models. Zero-inflated Poisson (ZIP) and zero-inflated negative binomial (ZINB) occupancy–abundance models were introduced for the first time, and these were compared with the Poisson, NBD, He and Gaston's and Wilson and Room's abundance–variance–occupancy models. The percentage of zero counts ranged from 45 to 80% in the datasets analysed. For most of the datasets, the ZINB occupancy–abundance model performed better than the traditional Poisson, NBD and Wilson and Room's model. He and Gaston's model performed better than the ZINB in two out of the five datasets. However, the occupancy predicted by all models increased faster than the observed as density increased resulting in significant mismatch at the highest densities. Limitations of the various models are discussed, and the need for careful choice of count distributions and predictors in estimating abundance and occupancy parameter are indicated.     

A Realistic Assessment of the Indicator Potential of Butterflies and Other Charismatic Taxonomic Groups

Abstract:  Charismatic groups of animals and plants often are proposed as sentinels of environmental status and trends. Nevertheless, many claims that a certain taxonomic group can provide more-general information on environmental quality are not evaluated critically. To address several of the many definitions of indicator species, we used butterflies to explore in some detail the attributes that affect implementation of indicators generically. There probably are few individual species, or sets of species, that can serve as scientifically valid, cost-effective measures of the status or trend of an environmental phenomenon that is difficult to measure directly. Nevertheless, there are species with distributions, abundances, or demographic characteristics that are responsive to known environmental changes. In this context, single or multiple species can serve as indicators when targets are defined explicitly, ecological relationships between the target and the putative indicators are well understood, and data are sufficient to differentiate between deterministic and stochastic responses. Although these situations exist, they are less common than might be apparent from an extensive and often confounded literature on indicators. Instead, the public appeal of charismatic groups may be driving much of their acclaim as indicators. The same taxon may not be appropriate for marketing a general conservation mission and for drawing strong inference about specific environmental changes. To provide insights into the progress of conservation efforts, it is essential to identify scientific and practical criteria for selection and application of indicators and then to examine whether a given taxonomic group meets those criteria .     

Rapid Evolution in the Wild: Changes in Body Size, Life-History Traits, and Behavior in Hunted Populations of the Japanese Mamushi Snake

Abstract:  Rapid evolution caused by human exploitation of wildlife is not usually addressed in studies of the impacts of such exploitation despite its direct relevance to population persistence. Japanese mamushi ( Gloydius blomhoffii ), an endemic venomous snake of the Japanese archipelago, has been heavily hunted by humans, and many populations appear to be declining or are already extirpated. We compared local populations that have been hunted regularly with populations that have not been hunted. Mamushi in hunted populations were smaller, had fewer vertebrae, produced more and smaller offspring, had increased reproductive effort among smaller females, and in nature fled at greater distances from an approaching human and were less defensive than mamushi in unhunted populations, as predicted from life-history theory. Heritability estimates for body size, number of vertebrae, and antipredator behavior were statistically significant, and neonates from hunted sites showed the same distribution of altered characters (compared with those from unhunted sites) as adults. Thus, distribution of the divergent trait between hunted and unhunted sites appeared in part to be genetically based, which suggests rapid evolution to human predation pressures. Trait distributions in hunted populations probably deviate from naturally (as opposed to anthropogenically) selected optima and, therefore, may have long-term negative repercussions on population persistence. Because rapid evolution affects a suite of parameters that characterize exploited populations, accurate understanding of the impacts of exploitation and effective resource management and conservation can only be achieved if evolutionary consequences are considered explicitly.