基于演化博弈的危化品安全监管情景推演研究

针对危化品安全生产监管问题,基于演化博弈理论构建危化品安全监管演化博弈模型,并将危化品事故发生率引入模型,对比分析危化品企业与地方政府监管部门行为策略的演化稳定均衡。在此基础上进行情景推演模拟仿真,研究表明:危化品事故发生率,对危化品企业和地方政府监管部门的策略选择有显著影响,当危化品事故发生概率低于某一临界值时,危化品企业和监管部门都会疏忽安全投入和监管;地方政府承受危化品事故经济损失和信誉损失增大时,危化品安全监管系统演化呈现出周期性波动;引入上级政府惩罚机制情景下,当上级政府惩罚力度高于危化品企业未投入安全生产受到的处罚和地方政府安全监管成本时,其最终都选择安全投入和严格监管策略。研究结论为政府监管危化品安全生产提供新的思路和对策建议。     

基于央地分权视角的环境规制策略演化博弈分析

当前,我国环境的根本问题是由粗放式的经济发展模式所引起的,而这一发展模式的根源在于"中国式央地分权"下的政府行为。这种具有中国特色的分权模式的独特之处在于中央政府对地方经济放权的同时,仍然保持政治上的集权控制,上级政府根据绩效考核提拔地方官员,即"经济分权、政治集权"特性。中国式分权下,我国的环境治理体制依据行政区域的划分来设置管理权限,按照政府层级的构成进行垂直式领导,即中央政府统一制定环境政策,地方政府负责各辖区内环境政策的执行。在全国范围内,央地两级政府的关系表现为动态的重复博弈。针对我国现行环境规制执行策略,借助演化经济学研究工具,基于央地分权的视角,将地方政府与中央政府两大主体同时纳入分析框架。根据复制动态方程探讨参与主体的行为演化特征和行为演化稳定策略,在模型求解的基础上,利用MATLAB仿真工具,分析不同情形下参与主体演化稳定策略的走向及其收敛趋势。研究发现,央地两级政府在环境规制策略执行过程中的动态演化,很大程度上取决于地方政府环境规制执行力度、成本、收益和损失以及中央政府监管力度、成本和处罚力度等因素的大小。因此,针对地方政府环境策略激励设计,应重点改革政绩考核机制,引入市场机制,并通过环保补贴、财政转移支付等手段降低地方政府环境规制执行成本;中央政府应通过调节政绩考核体系中的经济发展指标和环境指标的权重系数来加强对地方政府环境规制执行情况的监管力度,建立第三方监管机制以降低中央政府监管成本,制定合理的奖惩机制以提高监管效率;以期推动我国环境规制策略的高效执行,促进环境绩效向经济绩效的良性转换,实现双重帕累托改进。     

A game model for dominance relations among group-living animals

We present here an attempt to understand behaviors of dominant individuals and of subordinate individuals as behavior strategies in an asymmetric “hawk-dove” game. We assume that contestants have perfect information about relative fighting ability and the value of the resource. Any type of asymmetry, both relevant to and irrelevant to the fighting ability, can be considered. It is concluded that evolutionarily stable strategies (ESSs) depend on the resource value (V), the cost of injury (D), and the probability that the individual in one role will win (x). Different ESSs can exist even when values of V, D, and x are the same. The characteristics of dominance relations detected by observers may result from the ESSs that the individuals are adopting. The model explains some characteristics of dominance relations, for example, the consistent outcome of contests, the rare occurrence of escalated fights, and the discrepancy between resource holding potential (RHP) and dominance relations, from the viewpoint of individual selection. Received: 7 May 1997 / Accepted after revision: 17 October 1997     

新沂河污水资源化生态工程可行性研究

新沂河污水资源化生态工程是以蔷薇河送清水工程为依托 ,将新沂河北偏泓作为排污专道 ,排污专线可构建成为五级河道稳定塘。其技术路线是控源导流 ,清污分流 ,通过河道稳定塘来自然降解城市污水。本文以科学的预测数据论证了工程的可行性。     

安图红松树轮稳定δ~(13)C、δ~(18)O序列记录的气候变化信息

测定了安图红松树轮稳定碳、氧同位素组成。选取与安图县毗邻的敦化市气象记录 ,分析了气象记录与树轮稳定碳、氧同位素的相关关系 ,发现红松树轮碳、氧同位素对气候变化均有显著的响应。合成了复合温湿指标 (TH) ,相关分析表明树轮碳、氧同位素对复合温湿指标的响应更加灵敏 ,而且碳同位素和氧同位素均对 5～ 8月的平均复合温湿指标有显著的响应。建立了碳、氧同位素对气候因子的响应函数 ,重建了安图地区近 2 0 0年来的气候变化。功率谱分析发现碳、氧同位素组成在 95 %的置信水平上存有准 2 0 0年、准 11年、准 4年和准 2年的变化周期。前两个周期变化基本上与太阳活动周期变化一致 ,后两个周期分别对应于“厄尔尼诺现象”和东亚夏季风的“准 2年振荡”。     

洞穴沉积物的环境记录研究进展

云贵高原有着独特的地理环境 ,其气候变迁应与青藏高原这一特殊的高海拔、低纬度的隆升地块有重要关系。洞穴化学沉积物是响应环境变化的地质记录档案 ,通过对它蕴藏的古气候信息的解译 ,可以反演过去的气候变化。本文侧重介绍了洞穴次生化学沉积物研究近年来取得的最新成果及其研究现状 ,并利用其在古环境研究中的优点 ,来讨论青藏高原的抬升对西南地区环境变化产生的屏蔽效应的可能性。     

稳定同位素在石油天然气地质中的应用与进展

分析总结了稳定同位素资料在判识天然气成因类型、确定干酪根母质来源、进行油 /气 /源对比、追索油气二次运移路线、探讨有机质的热演化规律、分析油气的次生变化以及油气混层开采中所起的重要作用 ,并介绍了稳定同位素应用于理论研究和生产实践的最新进展。     

淮安市水污染控制规划研究

淮安市严重的水污染已威胁到当地饮用水及南水北调东线调水的水质安全。根据水污染形势，提出了淮安市“控源导流、清污两制、3级控制、3级标准”的水污染控制战略。基于这一基本思想，构建了淮安市污染源头控制、污水集中处理、尾水调度处置的水污染全过程控制规划方案，确定了淮河入海水道南偏泓作为淮安市区域城市尾水的受纳与处置通道，论证了尾水生态系统的构成、尾水的调度方案，并对南偏泓3级河道稳定塘的水质进行了模拟。     

甘肃小西弓金矿床成矿物质来源和含矿流体运移轨迹同位素示踪

小西弓矿床是北山地区最重要的金矿床。金矿化在中元古代糜棱岩化绿片岩和长英片岩中呈脉状或蚀变岩团块产出,并且同海西期花岗岩类侵入岩体具密切时空联系。详细的硫、氧、氢和铅同位素研究结果表明,金矿床成矿物质和含矿流体主要来自海西期花岗岩类侵入岩、中元古代变质岩地层与大气降水。晚古生代时期,哈萨克斯坦—北山与塔里木板块沿柳园—大奇山深大断裂发生碰撞与地体拼贴,其中挤压与伸展转换期的构造变形作用不仅致使前海西期岩体(层)发生深熔,形成花岗质熔浆,而且诱发含矿流体向低温与低压构造破碎带运移,进而形成小西弓金矿床。     

Stable chlorine intramolecular kinetic isotope effects from the abiotic dehydrochlorination of DDT

INTENTION, GOAL, SCOPE, BACKGROUND: Identifying different sources and following reaction pathways of chlorinated organic contaminants in the environment can be challenging, especially when only their concentrations are available. Compound-specific stable chlorine measurements of some contaminants have recently been shown to provide additional information and an increased understanding of their biogeochemistry. These studies, however, have been generally limited to volatile molecules. OBJECTIVE: Here, the stable chlorine isotope ratios of the semi-volatile pesticide, 1,1,1-trichloro-2,2-bis(p-chlorophenyl)ethane (DDT) were investigated. Specifically, the intramolecular stable chlorine isotopic compositions of DDT and the kinetic isotope effect (KIE) for the abiotic dehydrochlorination of DDT to 2,2-bis(p-chlorophenyl)-1,1-dichloroethene (DDE) were determined. METHODS: Selective chemical oxidation of DDT to dichlorobenzophenone (DCBP) and analysis of each compound was used to calculate the stable chlorine isotope ratios of the alkyl and aromatic chlorines in DDT. To determine the KIE for dehydrochlorination, DDT was reacted in a basic solution to yield DDE at 52 degrees C, 60 degrees C, and 72 degrees C for 3, 5, and 5 days, respectively. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION: Significant intramolecular stable chlorine isotopic differences were observed in one sample of DDT where the alkyl and aromatic delta 37Cl values were -5.76 +/- 0.45 and -2.21 +/- 0.24%@1000, respectively. Dehydrochlorination of DDT to DDE in basic solutions at 52, 60, and 70 degrees C resulted in a substantial intramolecular KIE where the alkyl chlorines of DDE shifted by approximately 3%@1000 relative to the alkyl chlorines in DDT. However, no temperature dependence was observed. The KIE, calculated by an iterative program, was 1.009. CONCLUSIONS: Intramolecular differences in the stable chlorine isotope ratios were observed in DDT and this is the first such finding. Dehydrochlorination of DDT yields a measurable and distinct intramolecular stable chlorine KIE. RECOMMENDATION AND OUTLOOK: The results of this study demonstrate the existence of significant intramolecular differences in chlorinated organic compounds. Many other chlorinated semi-volatile and volatile organic contaminants are synthesized from multiple sources of chlorine, and we recommend that similar studies be performed on many such molecules in order to attain a clear understanding of their intramolecular chlorine isotopic differences. The existence of a measurable KIE for the dehydrochlorination of DDT to DDE shows the potential strength of using isotopic measurements to investigate the biogeochemistry of these important compounds. For example, the isotopically depleted aqueous chloride produced by dehydrochlorination of DDT to DDE may be a useful tracer of these reactions in freshwater environments.