经济结构变动对环境污染物排放的影响分析

本文利用投入产出技术给出一类经济结构变动对环境污染物排放的影响分析模型,该方法着重分析了各产业部门的生产技术变动、最终需求变动及收入变动对环境污染物排放量的影响。     

The impact of global warming on winter tourism and skiing: a regionalised model for Austrian snow conditions

Possible climate change will modify snow-cover depth and change the characteristics of winter tourism and skiing districts. Our model describes seasonal snow-cover depth related to altitude in six Alpine climate regions as the best fit of all snow stations. Data cover 30 winter seasons (November to April values) from 1965 to 1995. We modified the data according to a scenario of temperature and precipitation change (2 °C warming, no precipitation change) and achieve a new simulated snow-cover depth. The indicators MARP (mean altitude of resident population) and MASPSL (mean altitude of starting point of ski lifts) serve as references for “critical altitudes” of Austrian districts. A warming implies a reduction of snow in all districts, but the loss is overproportional in lower altitudes. The direction of economic impacts is clear – income losses and adaptation costs – but magnitude and time frames remain uncertain. Received: 24 February 1999 · Accepted: 15 May 1999     

Dynamics of Ammonia Exchange in Response to Cutting and Fertilising in an Intensively-Managed Grassland

Continuous micrometorological measurements of ammonia (NH₃)exchange were made for a period of 19 months (May 1998–November 1999) over intensively managed grassland in southern Scotland. This study focused on the influence of management activities, such as cutting and fertilising, on vegetation-atmosphere exchange of NH₃. Measurements were conducted within the European project GRAMINAE (GRassland AMmonia INteractions Across Europe) within which the Scottish site forms one of 6 sites in an E–W transect across Europe. NH₃ emissions were enhanced (up to 300 ng m^-2 s^-1) after cutting followed by larger emissions after fertilising (up to 1400 ng m^-2 s^-1). Annual budget calculations show the intensive grassland acted as a net source (1.8 kg N ha^-1 yr¹) although fluxes were bi-directional with deposition dominating in the winter and emission in the summer. Initial modelling of the NH₃ exchange using a `canopy compensation point' model has been conducted for key periods. The dynamics of the fluxes during these key periods, such as before and after cutting and fertilising, may be reproduced by introducing different values of the apoplastic ratio, = [NH₄ ⁺]/[H⁺].     

某厂化学装置爆炸对设备房结构的损坏——调查与模拟分析

在对某厂化学爆炸所作的现场调查的基础上，对设备房钢筋混凝土框架结构构件的受损状况进行了分类描述，采用有限元方法对框架结构在静力和爆炸冲击荷载下的反应进行了模拟分析，分析结果与现场调查情况基本一致，给出了一些有意义的结论。     

SEDIMENT ROUTING FOR AGRICULTURAL WATERSHEDS1

ABSTRACT: A sediment routing technique was developed to route sediment yield from small watersheds through streams and valleys to the outlet of large watersheds. The technique is based on the modified universal sol loss equation and a first order decay function of travel time and particle size. Deposition is dependent upon settling velocities of sediment particles, travel time, and the amount of sediment in suspension. Sediment routing increases sediment yield prediction accuracy and allows determination of subwatershed contributions to the total sediment yield. Also, the locations and amounts of floodplain scour and deposition can be predicted. Another advantage of sediment routing is that measured sediment yield data are not required. The procedure performed satisfactorily in test routings on two Texas blackland watersheds Sediment routing will be useful in flood control evaluation, reservoir and channel design, water quality calculations, environmental impact assessment, and land-use planning.     

COMPARISON OF METHODS TO ESTIMATE DEEP PERCOLATION RATES1

ABSTRACT: Deep percolation rates are normally estimated from a water balance. Results are presented of a study undertaken to evaluate three alternative methods of estimating percolation below the root zone when knowledge about the history of applied water and evapotranspiration are not available. The alternative methods are: 1) use of Darcy's equation to calculate deep percolation rate; 2) measurement of the soil temperature prof and calculation of the deep percolation rate from the shape of the temperature depth curve; and 3) measurement of the tritium concentration in the soil water and its relationship to the history of the tritium concentration in rainfall. At the principal study site, the Darcy velocity of flow ranged from 9 cm per year determined by the temperature method, to 40 cm per year determined by the tritium method. Darcy's equation to calculate seepage rates resulted in an estimation of deep seepage of 18 cm per year. An average deep percolation rate at the principal study site of 22 cm per year was determined using the average of all three methods. Results for other sites based on the temperature method indicated a lower seepage rate.     

Small cetacean bycatch as estimated from stranding schemes: The common dolphin case in the northeast Atlantic

Death in fishing gear of non-target species (called ‘bycatch’) is a major concern for marine wildlife, and mostly worrying for long-lived species like cetaceans, considering their demographic characteristics (slow population growth rates and low fecundity). In European waters, cetaceans are highly impacted by this phenomenon. Under the Common Fishery Policy, the EC 812/2004 regulation constitutes a legal frame for bycatch monitoring on 5–10% of fishing vessels >15 m. The aim of this work was to compare parameters and bycatch estimates of common dolphins (Delphinus delphis) provided by observer programmes in France and UK national reports and those inferred from stranding data, through two approaches. Bycatch was estimated from stranding data, first by correcting effectives from drift conditions (using a drift prediction model) and then by estimating the probability of being buoyant. Observer programmes on fishing vessels allowed us to identify the specificity of the interaction between common dolphins and fishing gear, and provided low estimates of annual bycaught animals (around 550 animals year⁻¹). However, observer programmes are hindered by logistical and administrative constraints, and the sampling scheme seems to be poorly designed for the detection of marine mammal bycatches. The analyses of strandings by considering drift conditions highlighted areas with high levels of interactions between common dolphins and fisheries. Since 1997, the highest densities of bycaught dolphins at sea were located in the southern part of the continental shelf and slope of the Bay of Biscay. Bycatch numbers inferred from strandings suggested very high levels, ranging from 3650 dolphins year⁻¹ [2250–7000] to 4700 [3850–5750] dolphins year⁻¹, depending on methodological choices. The main advantage of stranding data is its large spatial scale, cutting across administrative boundaries. Diverging estimates between observer programmes and stranding interpretation can set very different management consequences: observer programmes suggest a sustainable situation for common dolphins, whereas estimates based on strandings highlight a very worrying and unsustainable process.     

Use of hydrodynamic models for the management of the Danube Delta wetlands: The case study of Sontea-Fortuna ecosystem

Due to its high biodiversity the Danube Delta, in Romania, is recognized as a UNESCO World Heritage Natural Site and it is listed as a RAMSAR wetland. The Danube River variable discharges have a great impact on the habitats and the overall ecological status of the delta. One of its most vulnerable parts, from both hydrodynamic and morphological point of view is the Sontea-Fortuna wetland located in the upstream of the Danube Delta. Sontea-Fortuna wetland is susceptible to both floods and droughts. On a long term, decision makers in the area need to know which measures to implement and how these will impact/improve the environment.This article presents how a 3D hydrodynamic model can be used as support for making sound decisions regarding the management of deltaic ecosystems. In particular, the methodology is applied on the Sontea-Fortuna wetland. The case study is part of a wider research in the area, which was developed within the EnviroGRIDS EU FP7 research project. EnviroGRIDS aimed at building capacity for scientists, decision-makers and the general public in the Black Sea Catchment, through collection and sharing of environmental data and models at the basin scale.     

烟台地区在业人口就业结构分析

根据人口普查资料，本文从行业和职业方面对烟台地区在业人口的就业结构现状及变动特点进行了系统分析，并在此基础上对农业剩余劳动力的转移问题作了深入探讨。     

Description and evaluation of a model of deposition velocities for routine estimates of dry deposition over North America. Part II: review of past measurements and model results

Numerical sensitivity tests and four months of complete model runs have been conducted for the Routine Deposition Model (RDM). The influence of individual model inputs on dry deposition velocity as a function of land-use category (LUC) and pollutant (SO₂, O₃, SO²⁻₄ and HNO₃) were examined over a realistic range of values for solar radiation, stability and wind speed. Spatial and temporal variations in RDM deposition velocity (V_d) during June – September 1996 time period generated using meteorological input from a mesoscale model run at 35 km resolution over north-eastern North America were also examined. Comparison of RDM V_d values to a variety of measurements of dry deposition velocities of SO₂, O₃, SO²⁻₄ and NHO₃ that have been reported in the literature demonstrated that RDM produces realistic results. Over northeastern NA RDM monthly averaged dry deposition velocities for SO₂ vary from 0.2 to 3.0 cm s⁻¹ with the highest deposition velocities over water surfaces. For O₃, the monthly averaged dry deposition velocities are from 0.05 to 1.0 cm s⁻¹ with the lowest values over water surfaces and the highest over forested areas. For HNO₃, the monthly averaged dry deposition velocities have the range of 0.5 to 6 cm s⁻¹, with the highest values for forested areas. For SO²⁻₄, they range from 0.05–1.5 cm s⁻¹, with the lowest values over water and the highest over forest. The monthly averaged dry deposition velocities for SO₂ and O₃ are higher in the growing season compared to the fall, but this behaviour is not apparent for HNO₃ and sulphate. In the daytime, the hourly averaged dry deposition velocities for SO₂, O₃, SO²⁻₄ and HNO₃ are higher than that in the nighttime over most of the vegetated area. The diurnal variation is most evident for surfaces with large values for leaf area index (LAI), such as forests. Based on the results presented in this paper, it is concluded that RDM V_d values can be combined with measured air concentrations over hourly, daily or weekly periods to determine dry deposition amounts and with wet deposition measurements to provide seasonal estimates of total deposition and estimates of the relative importance of dry deposition.