Thailand’s economic growth and structural development projections in the context of environmental control

Projections for 20 years of economic growth and change in the structure of the Thai economy were made for 180 sectors using a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model to compare the following four scenarios: (1) standard growth with infinite supply of factors, (2) finite land supply, (3) fixed use of agricultural chemicals, and (4) combined finite land supply with fixed use of agricultural chemicals. The computable projections suggest that the economic cost of hypothetical environmental control in agriculture is small and further weakened by urbanization. The computed structural development points to efficiency improvements specific to sectors to return the economy to balanced growth.     

AA-HPA-AMPS阻垢剂最佳合成条件研究

通过溶液聚合方法,以丙烯酸、丙烯酸羟丙酯、2-丙烯酰胺-2-甲基丙磺酸为单体,以过硫酸铵为引发剂,合成AA-HPA-AMPS聚合物。固定聚合物浓度为4mg/L,分别考查反应时间、反应温度(X1)、引发剂用量(X2)、单体配比(X3)对聚合物阻CaCO3垢性能的影响,并设计了正交实验,得出聚合物在90℃、引发剂用量为13.5%、M(AA)∶M(HPA)为7∶3时,阻CaCO3垢率最高为80.9%。为探究此聚合物是否有更高的阻垢性能,应用多元回归分析对正交实验结果进行分析及验证,聚合物阻CaCO3垢效率y与各影响因素x之间基本满足y=-146.825+16.25x2,最佳聚合条件为X2=14.5,y为90.20%。     

中国大气汞排放变化的社会经济影响因素

基于投入产出模型,从生产和最终需求角度计算了1997~2017年中国大气汞排放量;并结合结构分解分析方法,定量分析了各种社会经济因素对大气汞排放变化的相对贡献.结果表明：生产端大气汞排放较多的行业主要是水泥、石灰和石膏制造业（135t）、有色金属冶炼及压延加工业（86t）等重工业;消费端对大气汞排放贡献较多的行业主要是建筑业（219t）、汽车制造业（16t）等.各种社会经济因素对不同排放源和不同行业的相对贡献存在差异.人均最终需求水平提高是大气汞排放增加的最大驱动因素,其中,有色金属冶炼及压延加工业,电力、热力的生产和供应业,水泥、石灰和石膏制造业是其推动排放增加的主要行业.排放强度降低是大气汞排放减少的最大驱动因素,对有色金属冶炼及压延加工业,电力、热力的生产和供应业,水泥、石灰和石膏制造业的减排贡献最大.生产结构、最终需求行业结构和最终需求类别结构变化导致大气汞排放略有增加,但1997~2017年间因这3种结构性因素变化而减少汞排放的排放源和行业数量增多.根据研究结果,本文从生产全过程管控、优化社会经济结构等角度提出相关政策建议.     

基于描述函数法的典型结构非线性识别方法研究

目的为典型的结构非线性提供识别方法。方法基于动力学基本理论,对典型结构非线性系统在建模时,将非线性单元产生的非线性力作为位移或速度的函数加入到潜在的线性系统中,对不同激励量级的频响函数加以分析,通过描述函数法识别非线性单元的位置、类型和参数。结果通过Matlab编程进行仿真验证,使用描述函数法对非线性系统进行识别,成功对三种不同情况的非线性系统实现了非线性单元识别。结论描述函数法识别的非线性位置是准确的,类型是匹配的,参数准确度极高。     

中国粮食作物种植结构调整及其水土资源利用效应

粮食种植结构调整会影响农业资源的消耗需求。20世纪90年代中后期以来,玉米在我国粮食生产中的地位明显提升。以粮食种植结构无调整为参照情景,一定产量下,1996-2015年,在国家层面,因粮食种植结构调整对水土资源消耗的节省量约占现期需求量的4%左右。在区域层面,从结构调整对种植面积的减省效应看,耕地资源相对丰富的北方地区明显高于南方地区;从对水资源消耗的减省效应看,北方贫水区也普遍高于南方地区,干旱度最高的西北地区最高。期间区域分品种粮食生产广泛受到作物种植比例变化的影响。研究结果表明,要充分利用好南方水热资源,恢复水稻生产,主要取决于稻米需求及其种植效益,而北方地区则要尽可能按降水规律调整农作制度,合理控制水稻、小麦的种植面积。     

Mapping socio-economic scenarios of land cover change: a GIS method to enable ecosystem service modelling

We present a GIS method to interpret qualitatively expressed socio-economic scenarios in quantitative map-based terms. (i) We built scenarios using local stakeholders and experts to define how major land cover classes may change under different sets of drivers; (ii) we formalized these as spatially explicit rules, for example agriculture can only occur on certain soil types; (iii) we created a future land cover map which can then be used to model ecosystem services. We illustrate this for carbon storage in the Eastern Arc Mountains of Tanzania using two scenarios: the first based on sustainable development, the second based on 'business as usual' with continued forest-woodland degradation and poor protection of existing forest reserves. Between 2000 and 2025 4% of carbon stocks were lost under the first scenario compared to a loss of 41% of carbon stocks under the second scenario. Quantifying the impacts of differing future scenarios using the method we document here will be important if payments for ecosystem services are to be used to change policy in order to maintain critical ecosystem services.     

基于结构方程模型的安全文化影响因子分析

为进一步研究安全文化,采用结构方程模型(SEM)对安全文化的关键要素、构成因子以及因子间的因果关系进行研究。利用SPSS对山东4个国有煤矿355名员工安全文化定量测量数据进行分析。采用主成分抽取方法对安全文化关键要素进行因子分析,抽取特征根大于1的5个因子,解释变量的累积百分比为69.35%。同时运用结构方程模型软件(AMOS)构建安全文化结构模型以及安全文化因子间因果关系结构模型,证实领导责任因子对安全理念、安全认知和员工参与有直接正面影响。其中,对安全认知的影响最为显著(其路径系数为0.76);领导责任因子对安全业绩具有间接正面影响;安全理念、安全认知和员工参与对安全业绩具有直接正面影响。     

基于计划行为理论的矿工故意违章行为意向研究

为进一步解释和预测矿工故意违章行为意向,寻求可能的干预对策,以计划行为理论(TPB)为基本的理论构架,加入过去行为和示范性规范2个变量,构建了矿工故意违章行为意向假设模型。采取分层随机抽样方法,对412名矿工进行问卷调查,并借助结构方程建模技术对提出的假设模型进行了验证。研究表明:违章态度、知觉行为控制、示范性规范均对故意违章行为意向有显著的正向影响;主观规范对违章行为意向没有显著的直接影响;主观规范和过去行为通过违章态度间接正向影响违章行为意向。违章态度和示范性规范对故意违章行为意向的整体影响系数比较高,转变违章态度以及发挥群体其他成员遵章行为的示范性是降低故意违章行为意向的重要途径。     

Understanding the Factors That Influence Headwater Stream Flows in Response to Storm Events1

Stanfield, Les W. and Don A. Jackson, 2011. Understanding the Factors That Influence Headwater Stream Flows in Response to Storm Events. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 1‐22. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752‐1688.2010.00518.x Abstract: Headwater drainage features (first‐ to second‐order streams) are the capillaries of the landscape that, among other things, moderate the timing and volumes of water available to the riparian and aquatic ecosystems. How these features respond to summer rainfall is poorly understood. We studied how geology and an index of land use/land cover influenced peak flows following rainfall events in 110 headwater stream sites that were studied over a four‐month period during a drought year. Highest peak flows were observed in the most urbanized catchments and in poorly drained soils, but specific responses were variable depending on both geology and land disturbance. Redundancy analysis indicated that both surficial geology and land disturbance were important factors influencing peak flows under drought conditions. We conclude that responses of these headwater streams to individual storms during drought conditions are unpredictable from data collected using our methods, but increased peak flows were associated with increased urban and agricultural development, but mitigated by surficial geology. These findings demonstrate the challenges to accurately predict flow conditions in headwater streams during periods of extreme weather that concurrently have the greatest potential effect on biota. The combination of these challenges and importance of such events indicates the need to develop new approaches to study and manage these resources.     

“十二五”减排挑战与对策探讨

通过总结"十一五"期间我国环境保护工作取得的主要成果,及对"十二五"环境保护规划目标的分析,论述了"十二五"减排面临的挑战,并从强化法律、管理、行政、经济手段,实施结构减排和清洁生产等方面提出了可行性建议,以期确保国家环境保护规划目标的实现。