Time series modelling of respiratory hospital admissions and geometrically weighted distributed lag effects from ambient particulate air pollution within Kathmandu Valley,Nepal

The distributed lag effects of ambient particulate air pollution exposure on respiratory hospital admissions in Kathmandu Valley are modelled using daily time series data. The extended exposure to PM₁₀ is accounted for by assigning weights to daily average PM₁₀ which decline geometrically as the lag period increases in days. Results show that the percent increase in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) hospital admissions and respiratory admissions including COPD, asthma, pneumonia, and bronchitis per 10 μg/m³ rise in PM₁₀ are found to be 4.85% for 30 days lag effect, about 15.9% higher than that observed for same-day lag effect and 3.52% for 40 days lag effect, about 28.9% higher than the observed value for same-day lag effect, respectively.     

A numerical investigation of fluid-structure coupling of 3 MW wind turbine blades

In this paper, computational modeling is created for 3 MW wind turbine blade using the software Solidworks, and the computations are carried out using Workbench for the fluid–structure interaction of blades due to both the rated and the extreme wind load. The methods developed are applied to the simulation of the NREL Phase VI wind turbine blades, and validation against published data is presented. Moreover, the static structural analysis for wind turbine rotor is performed using Mechanical APDL. The results show that the maximum values of stress reach 458 MPa and 76.9 MPa due to the rated and extreme wind load, respectively, which are lower than 78.3 MPa, the flexural strength of Swancor 2511-A epoxy resin for blade material.     

分布式认知理论框架下农户土地转出意愿影响因素研究——基于SEM模型的武汉城市圈典型地区实证分析

基于分布式认知理论,从"个人力"、"地域力"、"文化力"三个层次构建农户土地流转认知的影响因素理论框架,利用"武汉城市圈"典型地区土地流转调查数据构建结构方程模型(Structural Equation Model,SEM),定量分析各影响因素在农户土地流转认知中的作用。研究证实:不同农户认知群体之间存在不同流转认知偏好,"无文化的老农民"相对于"有文化的年轻职业者"在土地流转认知中更加保守;农户对土地的需求普遍偏向土地的资产属性和财产权利,农村土地流转具备内在动力;然而,出于对土地社会保障功能的需求,农户不会因为其家庭生产方式和经济来源明显脱离土地而产生强烈的土地转出愿意,农户的家庭生计条件及"土地情节"在一定程度上制约了土地流转;村镇干部"取信于民"是农户获得"安全感",克服风险规避心理促进土地流转认知的最重要因素;流转价格是对农户在土地流转中物质与精神"双重损失"的资金补偿,两者的匹配程度对农户的认知具有重要作用。在此基础上,得出要规范流转程序、健全流转监督机制、保护农民利益,加强农村社会保障制度建设以确保农民获得公平的社会保障,加快推进和支持农村教育以提高农村劳动力素质,建立和完善土地流转制度保障和农业经营扶持机制等政策启示。     

ImPACTS框架下西北典型生态经济问题研究综述

与传统学科界限鲜明不同,生态经济学强调跨学科交叉研究,注重让问题来决定研究工具集,而不是由研究工具来决定合适的对象。由于生态经济问题涉及生态系统与社会经济系统,研究对象属性多样、关系复杂,既有采用传统意义上的生态经济学方法如生态系统服务价值核算等方法,也包括生活质量、生计途径、消费评估等社会学方法。因此,采取关注学科主要方法发展演化的思路,难以系统地总结生态经济研究进展。我国西北地区生态环境脆弱,经济发展相对落后,无疑是生态经济研究的"天然典型实验场",取得了大量的研究成果。遵循从研究对象出发的思路,采用经典的ImPACTS等式框架,以更宽泛的视野和系统的思维框架综述了西北地区典型生态经济实证研究的思路,即:采用等级层次分析方法研究生态系统和经济系统某个或多个结构性成分及其关系,再用实际结果检验其正确性。综述重要进展包括:可持续性衡量从物质、能量和信息角度开展了水资源承载力、生态足迹、能值与上升性的研究;生态系统服务和自然资本的价值评估开展了条件估值和选择模型,以及环境经济账户、物质流等集成核算工作;人类福利状况评价开展了幸福及生活质量核算工作;开展了生态补偿全流程的实证研究工作;集成模拟模型开展了空间建模环境的构建及简单自然过程的模拟,以LUCC和生态补偿为例进行了较好的自然过程和人文因素相耦合的集成模拟研究;以社会适应性能力作为整体性指标研究了社会资源对水资源的适应作用,将社会资源解耦为文化类型、社会资本和制度三个维度进行实证分析。在此基础上,提出了未来开展研究的建议。     

Comparative study on consumption behaviors in private car markets between large and medium–small cities in China

With the economic development and the acceleration of motorization in China, the number of private cars increases rapidly in urban areas. However, the limit of urban resources and the contradiction between traffic supply and demand are increasingly prominent in large cities, while private car consumption has been a new “light” in medium and small cities. Consumers’ behaviors differ from region to region. Aiming at the above problems, we formulate structural equation modeling and carry out empirical research. In this paper, a comparative study about the main influential factors that affect the consumption of private cars in large and small cities in China is made, and it is hoped that some guidance for policy recommendations can be obtained.     

改良剂对湿地土壤团聚体及抗悬浮能力的影响试验

以巢湖十五里河河口湿地土壤为研究对象,选用PAM(J)、PAM+生物炭(SJ)和PAM+泥炭(NJ)为土壤结构改良剂,研究改良剂对淹水条件下培养后土壤水稳性团聚体数量、土壤抗悬浮能力和土壤磷释放的影响。结果表明,四种处理(CK、NJ、J和SJ)0.25 mm水稳性团聚体含量大小顺序为:J(58.73±0.57%)SJ(48.27±3.58%)NJ(34.47±2.02%)CK(2.31±0.15%)。在室内风浪扰动模拟实验中,扰动后上覆水体悬浮物浓度(SS)和水体磷浓度的大小顺序均是:CKNJJSJ,且CK显著大于NJ、J和SJ。添加PAM(J)、PAM+生物炭(SJ)和PAM+泥炭(NJ)不仅能显著提高0.25 mm研究区湿地土壤水稳性团聚体的含量,也能显著增强风浪扰动下淹水土壤的抗悬浮能力,进而显著降低淹水后土壤磷释放能力,其中以添加PAM+生物炭组合提升淹水后湿地土壤抗悬浮和降低磷释放能力的效果最佳。     

城市土地利用对居民通勤碳排放的影响研究

以南阳市为例,基于3 746组实地调查数据,采用GIS、多元线性回归和结构方程模型,系统分析了我国中部城市居民通勤碳排放的空间分异特征,重点研究了居住地和工作地中小尺度土地利用因子对通勤碳排放的影响机制。研究发现:在内生变量中,通勤距离和通勤方式均是影响居民通勤碳排放的显著因素;在外生变量中,工作地的道路密度和商业用地占比、居住地的人口密度与通勤碳排放呈显著正相关,公交线路数量、居住地的土地利用混合度、工作地的居住用地和工业用地占比与通勤碳排放呈显著负相关。研究成果旨在为研究区城市土地利用优化调控和低碳规划提供决策依据,也为其他同类地区城市土地利用低碳规划与可持续发展提供借鉴。     

3种基质对污水中总磷的吸附性能

以粒径为2～5 mm的无烟煤、活性炭和草炭3种基质为实验材料进行吸附等温线和吸附动力学实验,探讨和对比3种基质对污水中总磷的吸附性能,选用吸附效果最好的无烟煤作为玻璃柱的填料模拟土壤渗滤系统.结果表明,3种填料基质对总磷的吸附均符合Freundlich和Langmuir吸附等温线方程,通过拟合方程得出无烟煤、活性炭和草炭的最大静态吸附量分别为1.249、0.254和0.716 mg/g;用一级动力学方程拟合3种填料基质对总磷的吸附反应过程较好,相关系数都在0.900以上,无烟煤、活性炭和草炭吸附速率分别为0.025、0.023和0.014 mg/(g·h),其中经无烟煤处理过的污水,出水最清澈;在模拟土壤渗滤系统实验中,当进水浓度为3.43～8.43 mg/L,水力负荷为0.08 m3/(m2·d)时,出水中总磷平均浓度为0.08 mg/L,满足《城镇污水处理厂污染物排放标准》中的一级A标准,对总磷的去除率高达96.48％ ～ 99.19％.     

Estimation of the impact of prevailing weather conditions on the occurrence of oil-contaminated dead birds on the German North Sea coast

Chronic oil pollution by illegal oil dumping in the North Sea is difficult to quantify. Beached, oil-contaminated sea birds, however, may be used as an indirect indicator. Reconstructing the drift of oil slicks and sea bird corpses in the southern North Sea for the period 1992-2003 by means of a two-dimensional numerical transport model driven by re-analysed weather data, we show with an example of two common sea bird species that the variability observed within the number of corpses registered during beached bird surveys for the German coast primarily reflects the inter-annual variability of prevailing weather conditions. This should be taken into account when interpreting the data. We propose normalisation of beached bird survey data based on numerical drift simulations to improve the recognition of trends in the level of chronic oil pollution.