Phytoplankton production modelling in three marine ecosystems—static versus dynamic approach

Phytoplankton productivity is usually determined from water samples incubated at a number of irradiance levels during several hours. The resultant productivity-irradiance (P–E) curves are then used to estimate local and/or global phytoplankton production. However, there is growing evidence that these curves, referred as static, underestimate phytoplankton photosynthesis to a great deal, by assuming a stable response to light over the incubation period. One of the drawbacks of static P–E curves is the overestimation of photoinhibition.In this work, three one-dimensional vertically resolved models were developed as simply as possible, to investigate differences between static and dynamic phytoplankton productivity in three marine ecosystems: a turbid estuary, a coastal area and an open ocean ecosystem. The results show that, when photoinhibition development time is considered (dynamic model), the primary production estimates are always higher than when calculated with the static model. The quantitative importance of these differences varies with the type of ecosystem and it appears to be more important in coastal areas and estuaries (from 21 to 72%) than in oceanic waters (10%). Thus, these results suggest that primary production estimates, obtained under the assumption of a static behaviour response to light, may underestimate the real values of global phytoplankton primary production. Calculations suggest that the quantitative importance of this underestimation may be larger than the global missing carbon sink.     

Integrating wetlands and riparian zones in river basin modelling

Wetlands, and in particular riparian wetlands, represent an interface between the catchment area and the aquatic environment. They control the exchange of water and related chemical fluxes from the upper catchment area to surface waters like streams and lakes. Their influence on water and nutrient balances has been investigated mainly at the patch scale. In this study an attempt was made (a) to integrate riparian zones and wetlands into eco-hydrological river basin modelling, and (b) to quantify the impacts of riparian wetland processes on water and nutrient fluxes in a meso-scale catchment located in the northeastern German lowland. The investigation was performed by analysing hydro-chemical field data and applying the eco-hydrological model SWIM (Soil and Water Integrated Model), which was extended to reproduce the relevant water and nutrient flows and retention processes at the catchment scale in general, and in riparian zones and wetlands in particular. The main extensions introduced in the model were: (1) implementation of daily groundwater table dynamics at the hydrotope level, (2) implementation of water and nutrient uptake by plants from groundwater in riparian zones and wetlands, and (3) assessment of nutrient retention in groundwater and interflow. The simulation results indicate that wetlands, though they represent relatively small parts of the total catchment area, may have a significant impact on the overall water and nutrient balances of the catchment. The uncertainty of the simulation results is considerably high, with the main sources of uncertainty being the model parameters representing the geo-hydrology and the input data for land use management.     

The spatial links tool: Automated mapping of habitat linkages in variegated landscapes

The removal, alteration and fragmentation of habitat in many parts of the world has led to a loss of biodiversity. Within the prevailing societal limitations the process is not easily reversed. Attempts are being made to minimise the fragmentation of remaining habitat by strategically reversing or managing habitat loss. Although their relative usefulness is a topic of debate among ecologists, habitat corridors are seen as one way of maintaining spatially dependent ecological processes within landscapes where habitat has been seriously depleted. Corridors can only be effective if they significantly contribute to the species sustaining processes of gene flow, resource access or the colonisation of vacant patches. We present a spatial habitat modelling methodology for evaluating the contribution and potential contribution of connecting paths to landscape connectivity. We have developed the spatial links tool (SLT), which maps link value across a region. The SLT combines connectivity measures from metapopulation ecology with the least cost path algorithm from graph theory, and can be applied to continuously variable landscape data. Combined with expert judgement, link value maps can be used to delineate habitat corridors. The approach capitalises on some synergies between ecological relevance and computational efficiency to produce an easily applied heuristic tool that has been successfully applied in NSW Australia.     

Agent based simulation of a small catchment water management in northern Thailand: Description of the CATCHSCAPE model

Due to mounting human pressure, stakeholders in northern Thailand are facing crucial natural resources management (NRM) issues. Among others, the impact of upstream irrigation management on downstream agricultural viability is a growing source of conflict, which often has both biophysical and social origins. As multiple rural stakeholders are involved, appropriate solutions should only emerge from negotiation. CATCHSCAPE is a Multi-Agent System (MAS) that enables us to simulate the whole catchment features as well as farmer’s individual decisions. The biophysical modules simulate the hydrological system with its distributed water balance, irrigation scheme management and crop and vegetation dynamics. The social dynamics are described as a set of resource management processes (water, land, cash, labour force). Water management is described according to the actual different levels of control (individual, scheme and catchment). Moreover, the model’s architecture is presented in a way that emphasises the transparency of the rules and methods implemented. Finally, one simulated scenario is described along with its main results, according to different viewpoints (economy, landscape, water management).     

Causal modelling of multivariate outcomes from developmental toxicity experiments

Exposure to developmental toxicants may cause foetal malformations, increase foetal death or resorption and reduce foetal weight. The correlations among these developmental endpoints have been reported, but their causal relationships have not been investigated. Structural equation models (path models) were applied to study the patterns of causation among the four developmental outcomes, number of viable foetuses, number of malformations, number of deaths/resorptions, and average foetal weight; these outcomes were modelled as response variables with the dose level and number of implants (litter size) modelled as independent variables. Three hypothesized path models were fitted to developmental toxicity data from a study of the herbicide 2,4,5-T exposure in mice. One model, which hypothesized that foetal weight, implicitly a mechanism such as cellular growth, affects both malformations and death/resorption (equivalently, viability) with no causation relationship between malformation and death/resorption, described data consistently well for three strains of mice. The most consistent relationship found was a strong direct effect of foetal weight on malformations, and the correlation between malformations and death/resorption (or reduced viability) was likely spurious.     

A Numerical Study of the Dynamics of the Riverine Thermal Bar in a Deep Lake

A numerical model based on a Finite Volume formulation of the Navier–Stokes equations is used to simulate a range of scenarios leading to a thermal bar formed by a river inflow to an idealised deep lake. The results presented here show that small riverine salinity increases have a profound effect on the dynamics of the thermal bar, suppressing horizontal propagation of the plume and raising the possibility of a thermal bar which is capable of sinking to great depths. This finding is particularly relevant to Lake Baikal in Siberia, where the vigorous deep-water renewal is still not fully understood. An analysis of the buoyancy forces governing the depth of penetration of the thermal bar plume shows that realistic salinity gradients are an important factor in determining the circulation of Baikal waters. Observations of the saline curtailment of the thermal bar's horizontal propagation also reveal a potential for reduced productivity in the ecosystem of any temperate river delta during the Spring renewal period.     

Chaotic dynamics in a multispecies community

Environmental and Ecological Statistics - It is shown that community dynamics is neither haphazard nor completely directed. This is quite clear from our examination of a concrete example where...     

Threats to Avifauna on Oceanic Islands

Abstract:  Results of the study by Blackburn et al. (2004 a ) of avifauna on oceanic islands suggest that distance from the mainland and time since European colonization have major influences on species extinctions and that island area is a significant but secondary contributing factor. After augmenting the data of the study on geographical properties for some of the islands they examined, we used a causal analysis approach with structural equation modeling to reexamine their conclusions. In our model geographical properties of islands, such as island area and isolation, were considered constraints on biological factors, such as the number of introduced mammalian predators and existing number of avifauna, that can directly or indirectly influence extinction. Of the variables we tested, island area had the greatest total influence on the threat of extinction due to its direct and indirect effects on the size of island avifauna. Larger islands had both a greater number of threatened bird species and more avifauna, increasing the number of species that could become threatened with extinction. Island isolation also had a significant, positive, and direct effect on threats to island avifauna because islands farther from the mainland had fewer current extant avifauna. Time since European colonization had a significant negative, but relatively weaker, influence on threats compared with the traditional biogeographic factors of island area and distance to the mainland. We also tested the hypothesis that the amount of threat is proportionally lower on islands that have had more extinctions (i.e., there is a "filter effect"). Because the proportion of bird extinctions potentially explained only 2.3% of the variation in the proportion of threatened species on islands, our results did not support this hypothesis. Causal modeling provided a powerful tool for examining threat of extinction patterns of known and hypothesized pathways of influence.     

European scenarios for EUSES regional distribution model

The regional multimedia distribution model incorporated into EUSES 1.0 is used for the estimation of regionally predicted environmental concentrations in different European scenarios: a scenario representing a typical region in the north of Europe (high fraction connected to sewer systems, lower environmental temperature, high fractions of surface water and natural soil and a low fraction for agricultural soil) and another scenario representing a typical region in the south of Europe (low fraction connected to sewer systems, higher environmental temperature, low fractions for surface water and natural soil, and a high fraction for agricultural soil). The two scenarios are based on average data of countries in Northern and Southern Europe, but are not realistic for any specific country located in these regions. Scenario calculations were carried out using these two scenarios in addition to the generic standard region, given in EUSES 1.0 as a default scenario, and the North-Rhine Westphalian region. The substance properties, including emissions, were left unchanged for all scenarios. For a number of substances, the calculated concentrations in both the North and the South of Europe turned out to be higher than those calculated with the standard generic scenario. Thus, the standard scenario cannot be considered as a 'worst case' scenario per se. Uncertainties due to the regional heterogeneity within Europe are high. It is recommended to use these two additional scenarios for an improved estimation of possible concentration ranges in Europe.     

Solute transport in crystalline rocks at Äspö — I: Geological basis and model calibration

Water-conducting faults and fractures were studied in the granite-hosted Äspö Hard Rock Laboratory (SE Sweden). On a scale of decametres and larger, steeply dipping faults dominate and contain a variety of different fault rocks (mylonites, cataclasites, fault gouges). On a smaller scale, somewhat less regular fracture patterns were found. Conceptual models of the fault and fracture geometries and of the properties of rock types adjacent to fractures were derived and used as input for the modelling of in situ dipole tracer tests that were conducted in the framework of the Tracer Retention Understanding Experiment (TRUE-1) on a scale of metres. After the identification of all relevant transport and retardation processes, blind predictions of the breakthroughs of conservative to moderately sorbing tracers were calculated and then compared with the experimental data. This paper provides the geological basis and model calibration, while the predictive and inverse modelling work is the topic of the companion paper [J. Contam. Hydrol. 61 (2003) 175].The TRUE-1 experimental volume is highly fractured and contains the same types of fault rocks and alterations as on the decametric scale. The experimental flow field was modelled on the basis of a 2D-streamtube formalism with an underlying homogeneous and isotropic transmissivity field. Tracer transport was modelled using the dual porosity medium approach, which is linked to the flow model by the flow porosity. Given the substantial pumping rates in the extraction borehole, the transport domain has a maximum width of a few centimetres only. It is concluded that both the uncertainty with regard to the length of individual fractures and the detailed geometry of the network along the flowpath between injection and extraction boreholes are not critical because flow is largely one-dimensional, whether through a single fracture or a network. Process identification and model calibration were based on a single uranine breakthrough (test PDT3), which clearly showed that matrix diffusion had to be included in the model even over the short experimental time scales, evidenced by a characteristic shape of the trailing edge of the breakthrough curve. Using the geological information and therefore considering limited matrix diffusion into a thin fault gouge horizon resulted in a good fit to the experiment. On the other hand, fresh granite was found not to interact noticeably with the tracers over the time scales of the experiments.While fracture-filling gouge materials are very efficient in retarding tracers over short periods of time (hours–days), their volume is very small and, with time progressing, retardation will be dominated by altered wall rock and, finally, by fresh granite. In such rocks, both porosity (and therefore the effective diffusion coefficient) and sorption K_ds are more than one order of magnitude smaller compared to fault gouge, thus indicating that long-term retardation is expected to occur but to be less pronounced.