近52a西南地区潜在蒸散发时空变化特征

潜在蒸散发对水资源评价和气候变化均具有重要意义。采用Penman-Monteith公式和气象观测资料计算了中国西南地区90个气象站的潜在蒸散发,并采用多种统计方法分析了潜在蒸散发的时空变化特征。结果表明:(1)西南地区近52a的平均潜在蒸散发为3 209.8 mm,其中云南省潜在蒸散发最高(3 664.7 mm),其次为四川省(3 015.0 mm)、重庆市(2 972.4 mm)、贵州省(2 958.0 mm)。四季潜在蒸散发空间分布特征与年不同,从大到小排序为夏季,春季,秋季,冬季。(2)西南地区整体呈增加趋势(0.9 mm/10 a),其中31个站点呈减少趋势(p0.1),17个站点呈增加趋势(p0.1),其余站点变化趋势不显著。大部分站点春季(55.6%)和夏季(63.3%)呈减少趋势,秋季(62.2%)和冬季(58.9%)则呈增加趋势。(3)经MannKendall突变检验,该区整体潜在蒸散发的突变时间为1995年(p0.05);单个站点突变检验显示,76个站点发生突变,突变年份集中于1980s,未发生突变的站点主要分布于青藏高原东缘。整体上看,近52a来西南地区潜在蒸散发略呈增加趋势,并存在突变点,但部分站点存在相反的变化趋势,这和复杂的地形环境和气候特征有较大关系,体现出西南地区水文气象变化的独特性。     

Elite cues,media coverage,and public concern: an integrated path analysis of public opinion on climate change, 2001–2013

To analyze the factors affecting US public concern about the threat of climate change between January 2002 and December 2013, data from 74 separate surveys are used to construct quarterly measures of public concern over global climate change. Five factors should account for changes in levels of concern: extreme weather events, public access to accurate scientific information, media coverage, elite cues, and movement/countermovement advocacy. Structural equation modeling indicates that elite cues, movement advocacy efforts, weather, and structural economic factors influence the level of public concern about climate change. While media coverage exerts an important influence, it is itself largely a function of elite cues and economic factors. Promulgation to the public of scientific information on climate change has no effect. Information-based science advocacy has had only a minor effect on public concern, while political mobilization by elites and advocacy groups is critical in influencing climate change concern.     

Sorption of 3,4-dichloroaniline on four contrasting Greek agricultural soils and the effect of liming

Sorption of 3,4-dichloroaniline (3,4-DCA) on four typical Greek agricultural soils, with distinct texture, organic matter content and cation exchange capacities, was compared by using sorption isotherms and the parameters calculated from the fitted Freundlich equations. The sorption process of 3,4-DCA to the soil was completed within 48–72 h. The 3,4-DCA sorption on all soils was well described by the Freundlich equation and all sorption isotherms were of the L-type. The sandy clay loam soil with the highest organic matter content and a slightly acidic pH was the most sorptive, whereas the two other soil types, a high organic matter and neutral pH clay and a low organic matter and acidic loam, had an intermediate sorption capacity. A typical calcareous soil with low organic matter had the lowest sorption capacity which was only slightly higher than that of river sand. The 3,4-DCA sorption correlated best to soil organic matter content and not to clay content or cation exchange capacity, indicating the primary role of organic matter. The distribution coefficient (K _d) decreased with increasing initial 3,4-DCA concentration and the reduction was most pronounced with the highly sorptive sandy clay loam soil, suggesting that the available sorption sites of the soils are not unlimited. Liming of the two acidic soils (the sandy clay loam and the loam) raised their pH (from 6.2 and 5.3, respectively) to 7.8 and reduced their sorption capacity by about 50 %, indicating that soil pH may be the second in importance factor (after organic matter) determining 3,4-DCA sorption.     

外源硅对不同pH水田土壤吸附铅的影响

通过等温吸附实验,研究了加硅对2种不同pH水田土壤吸附铅特性的影响。实验中用硝酸中和硅酸钠的碱性,各处理间钠离子和硝酸根离子的差异以硝酸钠补齐,消除了因硅酸盐的加入改变体系pH及伴随离子对土壤吸附铅可能产生的影响。结果表明,在本实验条件下,Langmuir方程、Freundlich方程和Temkin方程都能较好地描述不同硅浓度条件下两种土壤对铅的吸附特征,但以Freundlich模型为最优;加硅促进了酸性土壤对铅的吸附,抑制了碱性土壤对铅的吸附。     

Assessing the economic feasibility of regional deep saline aquifer CO2 injection and storage: A geomechanics-based workflow applied to the Rose Run sandstone in Eastern Ohio, USA

Typical top-down regional assessments of CO₂ storage feasibility are sufficient for determining the maximum volumetric capacity of deep saline aquifers. However, they do not reflect the regional economic feasibility of storage. This is controlled, in part, by the number and type of injection wells that are necessary to achieve regional CO₂ storage goals. In contrast, the geomechanics-based assessment workflow that we present in this paper follows a bottom-up approach for evaluating regional deep saline aquifer CO₂ storage feasibility. The CO₂ storage capacity of an aquifer is a function of its porous volume as well as its CO₂ injectivity. For a saline aquifer to be considered feasible in this assessment it must be able to store a specified amount of CO₂ at a reasonable cost per ton of CO₂. The proposed assessment workflow has seven steps that include (1) defining the storage project and goals, (2) characterizing the geology and developing a geomechanical model of the aquifer, (3) constructing 3D aquifer models, (4) simulating CO₂ injection, (5,6) evaluating CO₂ injection and storage feasibility (with and without injection well stimulation), and (7) determining whether it is economically feasible to proceed with the storage project. The workflow was applied to a case study of the Rose Run sandstone aquifer in the Eastern Ohio River Valley, USA. We found that it is feasible in this region to inject 113 Mt CO₂/year for 30 years at an associated well cost of less than US $1.31/t CO₂, but only if injectivity enhancement techniques such as hydraulic fracturing and injection induced micro-seismicity are implemented.     

Long-term geochemical evolution of the near field repository: insights from reactive transport modelling and experimental evidences

The KBS-3 underground nuclear waste repository concept designed by the Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Co. (SKB) includes a bentonite buffer barrier surrounding the copper canisters and the iron insert where spent nuclear fuel will be placed. Bentonite is also part of the backfill material used to seal the access and deposition tunnels of the repository. The bentonite barrier has three main safety functions: to ensure the physical stability of the canister, to retard the intrusion of groundwater to the canisters, and in case of canister failure, to retard the migration of radionuclides to the geosphere. Laboratory experiments (< 10 years long) have provided evidence of the control exerted by accessory minerals and clay surfaces on the pore water chemistry. The evolution of the pore water chemistry will be a primordial factor on the long-term stability of the bentonite barrier, which is a key issue in the safety assessments of the KBS-3 concept.In this work we aim to study the long-term geochemical evolution of bentonite and its pore water in the evolving geochemical environment due to climate change. In order to do this, reactive transport simulations are used to predict the interaction between groundwater and bentonite which is simulated following two different pathways: (1) groundwater flow through the backfill in the deposition tunnels, eventually reaching the top of the deposition hole, and (2) direct connection between groundwater and bentonite rings through fractures in the granite crosscutting the deposition hole. The influence of changes in climate has been tested using three different waters interacting with the bentonite: present-day groundwater, water derived from ice melting, and deep-seated brine. Two commercial bentonites have been considered as buffer material, MX-80 and Deponit CA-N, and one natural clay (Friedland type) for the backfill. They show differences in the composition of the exchangeable cations and in the accessory mineral content. Results from the simulations indicate that pore water chemistry is controlled by the equilibrium with the accessory minerals, especially carbonates. pH is buffered by precipitation/dissolution of calcite and dolomite, when present. The equilibrium of these minerals is deeply influenced by gypsum dissolution and cation exchange reactions in the smectite interlayer. If carbonate minerals are initially absent in bentonite, pH is then controlled by surface acidity reactions in the hydroxyl groups at the edge sites of the clay fraction, although its buffering capacity is not as strong as the equilibrium with carbonate minerals. The redox capacity of the bentonite pore water system is mainly controlled by Fe(II)-bearing minerals (pyrite and siderite). Changes in the groundwater composition lead to variations in the cation exchange occupancy, and dissolution–precipitation of carbonate minerals and gypsum. The most significant changes in the evolution of the system are predicted when ice-melting water, which is highly diluted and alkaline, enters into the system. In this case, the dissolution of carbonate minerals is enhanced, increasing pH in the bentonite pore water. Moreover, a rapid change in the population of exchange sites in the smectite is expected due to the replacement of Na for Ca.     

考虑人因差错影响的结构可靠度计算方法

通过对单个或任意多个人因差错影响下构件截面失效概率计算方法的分析讨论,推导出在理想已知条件下的数学解析求解公式;在考虑人因差错对结构参数影响程度的空间离散化后,得出了相应的简化计算方法;并以一个单筋梁的正截面为例进行了失效概率计算和人因差错影响程度分析.在目前人因差错的发生及其影响规律的研究不完善、缺乏必要的数学模型的现实条件下,该方法对人因差错影响下构件截面失效概率的分析计算有一定的实用价值.     

HAN阻隔防爆模型研究

通过合理简化,利用多方气体状态方程,分别建立油品储运容器内可燃混合气体定容爆炸模型和装设阻隔防爆材料的油品储运容器内可燃混合气体爆炸模型,获得了阻隔防爆性能测试装置的燃爆容器抗爆设计限值,以及其在HAN阻隔防爆测试中燃爆容器试爆压力量级的控制下限值,同时,还给出HAN工程应用中容器留空率的计算方法,具有实际指导意义。     

Oil spill cleanup cost estimation—Developing a mathematical model for marine environment

The field of oil spill cost modelling is not as well explored as desirable. Generally speaking, the existing models have either low accuracy, in that their predictions are far from the real cost, or low applicability, in that they are only valid under very specific conditions; such as in one particular country. This work strives to construct a model that is functional in a global scope and still possess a high level of accuracy. The resulting attempt is in many ways superior to the publicly available competitors, not only because of its predictive capacity but also because the model is quick to use, and its input variables should be readily available to any informed user. The model is more accurate comparing with similar available models. However, further study is needed to modify it to obtain more realistic results.