Comparison of Numerical Street Dispersion Models with Results from Wind Tunnel and Field Measurements

Numerical dispersion models developed and validated in different European countries were applied to data sets from wind tunnel and field measurements. The comparison includes the Danish Operational Street Pollution Model (OSPM) and the microscale flow and dispersion model MISKAM. The latter is recommended for application in built-up areas in the draft of the new German guideline VDI 3782/8. In a first step the models were applied to simplified street configurations. Different parameters as length and height of adjacent buildings and the angle of the incoming flow were varied. The results were compared to recent wind tunnel measurements. In a second step the models were applied to two extensively investigated field data sets from Jagtvej, Copenhagen and G ttinger Straße, Hannover. Intensified and more transparent and accessible validation procedures would be helpful for the thorough user.     

地震波数值模拟方法研究综述

地震波场数值模拟不仅是研究复杂地区地震资料采集、处理和解释的有效辅助手段,而且是研究地球深部精细构造的有效工具。地震波场数值模拟的主要方法包括3大类,即几何射线法、积分方程法和波动方程法。首先介绍了地震波数值模拟方法的理论基础和内容及特点,然后概括介绍了20世纪90年代以来几何射线法和各种波动方程数值模拟方法的新进展。因为波动方程数值模拟包含了丰富的波动信息,可为研究地震波的传播机理和复杂地层的解释提供更多的佐证,所以重点介绍波动方程数值模拟方法。最后,对各种数值模拟方法进行了评述,并给出了地震波传播理论和数值模拟方法发展的展望。     

结构性和相对密度对南京细砂抗液化强度的影响

结合南京长江四桥工程场地的液化试验结果,分析了相对密度和结构性对南京细砂抗液化强度的影响:重塑南京细砂的抗液化强度与相对密度具有较好的一一对应性,且随着相对密度增大而增大;结构性的存在使南京细砂原状砂样比重塑砂样具有更高的抗液化强度,但随着循环荷载的减小和振动作用次数的增加,两者的抗液化强度逐渐接近;由于结构性的影响,不同相对密度的原状南京细砂的抗液化强度有可能相同。     

Coupling soil water and shoot dynamics in three grass species: A spatial stochastic model on water competition in Neotropical savanna

Savannas are ecosystems known for their high environmental and economic value. They cover at least 20% of the global land surface and, in some cases, can act as a boundary between tropical rainforest and deserts. Water is an important determinant of savanna ecosystems.In this paper, we present a theoretical stochastic model of root competition for water, which couples, soil water availability, phenology, and root and shoot architecture applied to three Neotropical savanna grasses. Soil moisture was simulated using a daily balance, as proposed by Rodriguez-Iturbe et al. [Rodriguez-Iturbe, I., Porporato, A., Ridolfi, L., Isham, V., Cox, D.R., 1999. Probabilistic modelling of water balance at a point: the role of climate, soil and vegetation. Proc. R. Soc. London, Ser. A 455, 3789–3805.]. To simulate rainfall stochasticity, we used daily precipitation data from the airport weather station in the State of Barinas, Venezuela, for the period 1991–2007. Competition among neighbouring plants took into account the spatial distribution of the individuals. As a final step, the model allowed us to calculate the shoot dynamic of the species as a function of soil water availability.Using these data, we compared the behaviour of isolated plants, pairs and trios, and we found below-ground competition to be a fundamental component of global (shoot + root) competition. Finally, our model suggests various circumstances that allow poor competitor plants to coexist in competition for water with more successful competitors. Apparently, this is not only due to transpiration rates, but also to differences in shoot emergence and shoot growth.     

Transport and dynamics of toxic pollutants in the natural environment and their effect on human health: research gaps and challenge

The source–pathway–receptor (SPR) approach to human exposure and risk assessment contains considerable uncertainty when using the refined modelling approaches to pollutant transport and dispersal, not least in how compounds of concern might be prioritised, proxy or indicator substances identified and the basic environmental and toxicological data collected. The impact of external environmental variables, urban systems and lifestyle is still poorly understood. This determines exposure of individuals and there are a number of methods being developed to provide more reliable spatial assessments. Within the human body, the dynamics of pollutants and effects on target organs from diffuse, transient sources of exposure sets ambitious challenges for traditional risk assessment approaches. Considerable potential exists in the application of, e.g. physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) models. The reduction in uncertainties associated with the effects of contaminants on humans, transport and dynamics influencing exposure, implications of adult versus child exposure and lifestyle and the development of realistic toxicological and exposure data are all highlighted as urgent research needs. The potential to integrate environmental with toxicological models provides the next phase of research opportunity and should be used to drive empirical and model assessments.     

Multi-metric evaluation of the models WARM,CropSyst, and WOFOST for rice

WARM (Water Accounting Rice Model) simulates paddy rice (Oryza sativa L.), based on temperature-driven development and radiation-driven crop growth. It also simulates: biomass partitioning, floodwater effect on temperature, spikelet sterility, floodwater and chemicals management, and soil hydrology. Biomass estimates from WARM were evaluated and compared with the ones from two generic crop models (CropSyst, WOFOST). The test-area was the Po Valley (Italy). Data collected at six sites from 1989 to 2004 from rice crops grown under flooded and non-limiting conditions were split into a calibration (to estimate some model parameters) and a validation set. For model evaluation, a fuzzy-logic based multiple-metrics indicator (MQI) was used: 0 (best) ≤ MQI ≤ 1 (worst). WARM estimates compared well with the actual data (mean MQI = 0.037 against 0.167 and 0.173 with CropSyst and WOFOST, respectively). On an average, the three models performed similarly for individual validation metrics such as modelling efficiency (EF > 0.90) and correlation coefficient (R > 0.98). WARM performed best in a weighed measure of the Akaike Information Criterion: (worst) 0<wk<1$0<w_k<1$ (best), considering estimation accuracy and number of parameters required to achieve it (mean wk=0.983$w_k=0.983$ against 0.007 and ∼0.000 with CropSyst and WOFOST, respectively). WARM results were sensitive to 30% of the model parameters (ratio being lower with both CropSyst, <10%, and WOFOST, <20%), but appeared the easiest model to use because of the lowest number of crop parameters required (10 against 15 and 34 with CropSyst and WOFOST, respectively). This study provides a concrete example of the possibilities offered using a range of assessment metrics to evaluate model estimates, predictive capabilities, and complexity.     

Using accelerometer,high sample rate GPS and magnetometer data to develop a cattle movement and behaviour model

The study described in this paper developed a model of animal movement, which explicitly recognised each individual as the central unit of measure. The model was developed by learning from a real dataset that measured and calculated, for individual cows in a herd, their linear and angular positions and directional and angular speeds. Two learning algorithms were implemented: a Hidden Markov model (HMM) and a long-term prediction algorithm. It is shown that a HMM can be used to describe the animal's movement and state transition behaviour within several “stay” areas where cows remained for long periods. Model parameters were estimated for hidden behaviour states such as relocating, foraging and bedding. For cows’ movement between the “stay” areas a long-term prediction algorithm was implemented. By combining these two algorithms it was possible to develop a successful model, which achieved similar results to the animal behaviour data collected. This modelling methodology could easily be applied to interactions of other animal species.     

The hydrogeology of a tailings impoundment formed by central discharge of thickened tailings: implications for tailings management

The Kidd Creek Cu–Zn sulfide mine is located near Timmins, Ontario. Mill tailings are thickened and deposited as a slurry in a circular impoundment with an area of approximately 1200 ha. Deposition of tailings as a thickened slurry from a central discharge ramp results in a conical-shaped tailings deposit with low perimeter dykes, a uniform grain-size distribution, uniform and low hydraulic conductivity, and a tension-saturated zone above the water table up to 5 to 6 m thick. These characteristics provide benefits over conventionally disposed tailings with respect to tailings management. The thick tension-saturated zone within the tailings limits the thickness of unsaturated tailings that are susceptible to rapid sulfide oxidation. The conical shape of the deposit results in the formation of a recharge area near the centre of the impoundment and discharge in the peripheral areas. In contrast, the elevated nature of many conventional, unthickened tailings impoundments results in recharge over most of the surface of the impoundment, with discharge occurring outside the impoundment through large containment dykes. Three-dimensional pore water flow modelling suggests that approximately 90% of the total discharge from the thickened tailings occurs within the tailings impoundment. When discharge is confined within the impoundment, there is improved control over low-quality effluent, and an opportunity to design passive control measures to reduce treatment costs and minimize environmental impacts.     

Mathematical modelling as a tool for environmental evaluation of industrial sectors in Colombia

A general mathematical model has been developed as a tool for environmental evaluation of industrial chemical processes. This model is based on the life cycle assessment (LCA) methodology and includes a modular and cumulative conceptual approximation. Accordingly, the model considers the potential effects on the environment caused by mass, energy and exergy flows. For environmental loads related with mass flows, two main categories are defined: pollution and perturbation environmental effects. Whereas for the environmental effect associated with energy flows, a factor defined as “energy dissipation” is employed, and similarly for exergy flows, a “exergy destruction” parameter is used. The measurement unit employed throughout the model is expressed in terms of “potential environmental impact units/hour”. As an example study case, the integrated production chain (IPC) for nitric acid production in the Colombian context is evaluated. This particular IPC includes the ammonia production plant, energy plants and main process plant. The results demonstrate that for environmental perturbation effects based on mass flows, the main contribution in the IPC corresponds to the energy plants. In the case of pollution environmental loads, the principal contribution relates to ammonia production. Regarding environmental effects associated with energy flows, the highest “energy dissipation” factor corresponds to the main process, followed in order by the ammonia process. Finally, for the effect denominated as “exergy destruction”, it could be established that Colombian energy plants show the highest contribution in the IPC.     

GIS支持下的河网密度提取及其在洪水危险性分析中的应用

流域结构特征包含着丰富的洪水危险性信息。本文主要分析流域结构特征的一个重要指标－河网密度与洪水危险性之间的关系,并重点探讨了GIS支持下的河网密度自动提取方法,最后给出了辽河流域的实例分析。