城市防震减灾的决策分析

研究城市抗震减灾的目的是为了给城市的抗震防灾工作提供相应的行为依据。这些工作依赖于不同的决策分析方法和相应的城市基础数据。本文综合了几种常见的决策方案，建立了相应的决策分析方法；分析探讨了防震减灾决策综合支持系统的特点和内容。     

安全投资决策优化模型

安全投资决策是安全生产决策的重要内容。企业生产系统的安全投资 ,是生产成本的组成部分 ,合理地安排投资项目 ,可以最大限度地提高企业的安全效果和经济效益。当安全投资额度不能完全满足投资需求时 ,不同的投资组合导致系统安全效果差异较大。分析了生产系统的安全效果与费用的关系 ,根据系统的安全需要确定投资项目费用 ,将安全投资项目通过系统安全要素与安全效果直接挂钩 ,建立了安全投资决策的目标规划模型 ,确定了合理的安全投资组合 ,使有限的安全投资取得最佳的安全效果。通过一个案例验证了模型的有效性 ,可作为企业确定安全投资项目和政府有关部门进行安全管理的决策依据。     

基于灰关联熵理论的驾驶决策影响因子研究

针对道路交通系统数据采集难度大、灰度大、无典型分布等特点,采用多种数据采集设备采获数据,运用灰关联熵分析法重点对来自道路、环境的驾驶决策主影响因子进行了榨取和排序。仿真结果表明,该方法客观、定量,能克服目前人们以主观、定性分析为主的缺点,避免了多因子多重共线关系所引起的信息重叠及其对仿真过程的干扰,为自动驾驶系统的仿真和实现提供了理论基础和可行性依据。     

APPROACHES FOR DEVELOPING ALTERNATIVES IN PLANNING1

ABSTRACT. In the past planners have used various approaches to develop alternative plans for planning studies. These include: rational thought which draws upon the planners' knowledge, experience and judgement; objectives which emphasize specific values such as economic and environmental; technologies which achieve the same objective; public preferences which reflect public values and interests; alternative futures which array a diverse range of possible futures; mathematical models which rapidly evaluate possible alternatives; cost sharing policies which consider a participant's financial interest; Delphi technique utilizing a diversity of professional expertise; the IDEA method which stimulates and evaluates large numbers of alternatives. Most of these approaches have found application on various planning studies.     

天津市PM_(10)污染控制决策模型

探索了城市空气颗粒物污染控制决策的流程.分析了颗粒物排放源类的分担率、颗粒物的可削减空间、控制措施实施的可执行性及控制技术经济成本等方面对颗粒物污染控制决策的影响,在此基础上,结合空气质量模型、颗粒物来源解析、层次分析法等技术,建立了颗粒物污染控制方案优选方法及相应的决策模型.以天津市为例,分别设定颗粒物各排放源类的控制情景,计算不同控制情景下环境空气中ρ(PM10)削减率,在对所有方案初筛的基础上,采用层次分析法确定颗粒物污染控制的最优方案组合.     

循环经济发展战略下的企业决策行为研究——以天津滨海新区为例

在循环经济发展战略下,企业呈现出不同的行为模式,选择差异性目标和决策成本构成了企业的决策过程。转变经济发展方式的要求强化了企业所面对的市场竞争,而企业发展循环经济是具有内在动力机制的市场化行为。     

铁路突发事件应急决策体系研究

本文分别阐述了铁路突发事件及铁路应急决策的定义,通过分析总结铁路突发事件特点,建立铁路突发事件基本应急属性。构建铁路突发事件应急决策体系,其中分析铁路突发事件应急决策的特点,描述铁路应急体系组织结构及铁路应急决策流程,最后在总结了铁路常规应急决策方法,并结合人工智能及现代决策等理论提出铁路智能应急决策系统思路。     

Reducing non-contact electric arc injuries: an investigation of behavioral and organizational issues

PROBLEM: It is estimated that 5 to 10 arc flash explosions occur in electric equipment every day in the United States. In the mining industry the largest single injury category of electrical injuries are caused by non-contact electrical arcs. METHOD: This investigation progressed in two phases: (a) 836 Mine Safety and Health Administration (MSHA) reports of electric arcing incidents that occurred over a period of 11 years were reviewed, and (b) personal interviews were conducted with 32 individuals. A theoretical Safe Job Performance Model guided the study. RESULTS: Behavioral dimensions were identified and included the effect of worker experience, judgment and decision-making ability, behavioral and organizational controls, and safety culture. SUMMARY: The National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health (NIOSH) conducted an investigation of behavioral components associated with arc flash incidents and developed recommendations for interventions based on findings. IMPACT ON INDUSTRY: This study fills a vacuum in electrical training with a focus on the organizational and behavioral aspects of arc flash incidents. The research is cross-cutting in its scope, in that the results apply not only to mining and construction, but many other industries employing electricians. Although the majority of mine electrical injuries are the results of burns from electrical arcs, few miners are aware that such a hazard exists. A safety training program, which includes a video and an instructor's discussion guide, was developed for electricians based on this study's findings. "Arc Flash Awareness" was released in 2007 (DHHS NIOSH Publication No.2007-116D) and is available through 1-800 CDC INFO. Phone: 1-800 232-4636 or email cdcinfo@cdc.gov. It is also available from MSHA at MSHADistribution@dol.gov or 304-256-3257 (DVD-576). Private industry is producing Portuguese and Spanish language translations.     

Local food networks as catalysts for food policy change to improve health and build the economy

Local food networks (LFNs) are growing in popularity, in part as a response to broader criticisms of conventional food production. Municipal policy-makers have the opportunity to work with stakeholders to build LFNs to increase access to healthy foods in cities and ultimately improve population health and well-being. Building opportunities for healthy eating is particularly important in our study area. Flint, Michigan, is a post-industrial shrinking city suffering from the economic and health effects of deindustrialisation. Various stakeholders in Flint have responded to a significant issue with access to food by strengthening collaborations through a food policy council (FPC). Growth in the local food system has been supported by administrators and community advocates alike, through supporting community gardens, farmers' markets, and urban agriculture in a manner similar to nearby Detroit. Participant observation was conducted with stakeholders involved in the development of the LFN and the FPC in Flint. Stakeholders were exposed to existing research on the food system to help inform their policy direction. The group expressed several core concerns and prospects for future work, including a strong emphasis on consensus-based decision-making. Based on the synthesis of stakeholder opinions, policy recommendations are made to aid in continued planning of the LFN. Planning for food is an important first step in improving public health and strengthening local economic development in post-industrial cities. This research highlights the issue by making explicit the challenges and opportunities for policy advocacy in LFNs.     

Concept for cost effective improvement of river morphology in the context of the European Water Framework Directive

The EU Water Framework Directive calls for cost effective measures to achieve a “good status” in all European ground, surface and coastal waters. Besides eutrophication, the degradation of hydromorphology is the main reason for failing this objective. In this paper, we conceptualise the interactive decision support process BASINFORM-M for finding proper locations for river restoration. The concept combines the recently proposed “stepping stone approach” from aquatic ecology with elements from cost effectiveness analysis, multi-criteria analysis and participatory approaches. BASINFORM-M exemplifies a shift away from the isolated restoration of single river reaches towards a consideration of functional relationships within river networks.