基于云模型的民用机场消防指挥员决策能力测评研究

为研究民用机场消防指挥员决策能力,考虑测评指标分为定性与定量2类,且指标存在模糊性的特点,建立基于云模型的民用机场消防指挥员决策能力测评方法。根据相关规章规定、专家意见和问卷调查结果,确定测评指标体系,并依据云模型原理建立定性到定量的测评转换模型,将指标的定性测评转化为直观的定量评价;最后,根据云模型的期望、熵、超熵,评价民用机场消防指挥员决策能力水平。研究结果表明:利用基于云模型原理构建的定性与定量测评转换模型进行决策能力测评,所得测评结果能够体现评价指标模糊性和随机性的特点,评估结果更加直观且贴近实际情况。     

基于气象灾害预报的作物种植类型决策方法

干旱、雨涝是农业生态方面重要的水文气象灾害,科学地根据水文气象预报来选择种植作物品种,一直是农业管理者、生产者非常关心的问题,传统的决策方法是根据农业总体区划、作物种植习惯和耕作习惯确定的,具有一定的局限性。提出了基于气象灾害预报对错概率的作物种植类型决策新方法,综合考虑了农业气象预报的误报概率和作物适应性,克服了传统方法的不足。对绥棱农场某种植区20年的水文气象资料进行了分析,计算了旱涝预报与实况联合概率矩阵,推导出水文气象预报对错概率矩阵;根据作物品种在不同天气状况的产量,确定了决策失误损失矩阵。实证分析表明,所提决策方法可有效地减少因旱涝灾害给粮食产量带来的损失,对作物品种的选择具有很好的实用参考价值。     

BOOK REVIEWS

This study focuses on the technology purchasing decisions of a mid-sized firm (500 employees) that increase the energy efficiency of its computing systems while meeting its business objectives. For example, if company growth requires implementation of a more robust and up-to-date customer tracking system and includes hiring 10 new employees, what course should be followed to ensure a reduction in energy consumption as well as the achievement of company business goals? Should the company purchase a couple of additional servers with limited capacity for growth or should the company replace 20 aging rack servers with six state-of-the-art servers for consolidation and the hosting of virtual machines? And should the company supply the new employees with new cathode ray tube (CRT) monitors or recycle some that have been in storage? There are several alternatives that the firm can use to achieve its goals. This paper evaluates four energy efficiency technologies with respect to their impact on the reduction in energy consumption as well as internal organisational processes and human aspects. A proposed research effort is expected to contribute to energy efficiency literature by capturing adoption decisions from a market – end-user – perspective, and the outcome of this study is proposed to give insights to energy efficiency programme managers into designing more accurate energy efficiency programmes.     

可持续发展目标下的清洁发展机制项目评价

清洁发展机制（CDM）是《京都议定书》规定的发达国家和发展中国家之间项目级的合作机制，CDM项目的目标之一是促进发展中国家的可持续发展。在京都议定书最终生效的背景下．CDM项目的开发与能力建设成为热点。本文基于多目标决革理论。讨论CDM促进可持续发展与否的评价方法。以国际最新的研究为基础。作者构建了CDM项目可持续评价的指标化体系。建立了评价过程。并将其应用刭具体的案例——内蒙古辉腾锡勒风电CDM项目的评价中。研究可以为中国的CDM潜在项目的选择、比较和批准等实践活动提供定量的方法和思路。这对于中国成为CDM国际合作中的重要参与者以及促进中国的可持续发展都具有重要的意义。     

Evaluating Environmental Sustainability: An Integration of Multiple-Criteria Decision-Making and Fuzzy Logic

While pursuing economic development, countries around the world have become aware of the importance of environmental sustainability; therefore, the evaluation of environmental sustainability has become a significant issue. Traditionally, multiple-criteria decision-making (MCDM) was widely used as a way of evaluating environmental sustainability, Recently, several researchers have attempted to implement this evaluation with fuzzy logic since they recognized the assessment of environmental sustainability as a subjective judgment Intuition. This paper outlines a new evaluation-framework of environmental sustainability, which integrates fuzzy logic into MCDM. This evaluation-framework consists of 36 structured and 5 unstructured decision-points, wherein MCDM is used to handle the former and fuzzy logic serves for the latter, With the integrated evaluation-framework, the evaluations of environmental sustainability in 146 countries are calculated, ranked and clustered, and the evaluation results are very helpful to these countries, as they identify their obstacles towards environmental sustainability.     

A decision framework for estimating the cost of marine plastic pollution interventions

Marine plastic pollution has emerged as one of the most pressing environmental challenges of our time. Although there has been a surge in global investment for implementing interventions to mitigate plastic pollution, there has been little attention given to the cost of these interventions. We developed a decision support framework to identify the economic, social, and ecological costs and benefits of plastic pollution interventions for different sectors and stakeholders. We calculated net cost as a function of six cost and benefit categories with the following equation: cost of implementing an intervention (direct, indirect, and nonmonetary costs) minus recovered costs and benefits (monetary and nonmonetary) produced by the interventions. We applied our framework to two quantitative case studies (a solid waste management plan and a trash interceptor) and four comparative case studies, evaluating the costs of beach cleanups and waste-to-energy plants in various contexts, to identify factors that influence the costs of plastic pollution interventions. The socioeconomic context of implementation, the spatial scale of implementation, and the time scale of evaluation all influence costs and the distribution of costs across stakeholders. Our framework provides an approach to estimate and compare the costs of a range of interventions across sociopolitical and economic contexts.     

核电厂人因事故预防的定量化决策

人因事故的分析与预防是核电厂安全运行和管理的重要内容。笔者提出的系统安全性层次分析法主要从两种角度考虑系统的安全性:专家能力权值和安全性矩阵的建立。采用专家判断矩阵确定事故原因对系统安全性的重要度排序。举例某核电厂事故定量分析进行说明,在对事故进行原因分析基础上,构建事故影响因素层次模型,利用层次分析法分析得出事故原因重要度排序由高到低依次为组织管理、操作人员、人机界面、培训与设备状态,并据此提出了相应的预防与改进措施,为安全性要求较高的复杂工业系统提供事故预防的定量化决策依据。     

公路应急救援系统分析及模型仿真

针对公路应急救援进行了较为全面而深入的研究,分析系统中的各个组成环节,提出依据救援呼叫(CFS)的概率建立ESSR应急救援单元的新思路,建立救援单元模型,进行仿真分析,得出救援设施数量安排策略。制定了ESSR系统整体最优化模型,并利用matlab软件进行仿真分析,获得紧急救援最佳方案。为公路和市政道路管理者全面收集和分析信息资料,管理应急救援系统提供依据。通过模型仿真可评估和优化管理设施,实现信息和决策支持,提高了配备资源,快速高效处理交通突发事件能力。     

地震系统基层领导者如何做好有效决策之探讨

通过对重庆市黔江区小南海古地震遗址的保护的申报立项和综合开发问题的决策过程 ,从理论和实践两个方面论述了领导者应如何作出有效决策。主要是深入调查研究 ,找出关键问题 ;组织和依靠专家评审 ,选择最佳方案 ;合理冒险与避险 ,作出大胆决策。     

Multicriteria Relocation Analysis of an Off-site Radioactive Monitoring Network for a Nuclear Power Plant

Due to increasing environmental consciousness in most countries, every utility that owns a commercial nuclear power plant has been required to have both an on-site and off-site emergency response plan since the 1980s. A radiation monitoring network, viewed as part of the emergency response plan, can provide information regarding the radiation dosage emitted from a nuclear power plant in a regular operational period and/or abnormal measurements in an emergency event. Such monitoring information might help field operators and decision-makers to provide accurate responses or make decisions to protect the public health and safety. This study aims to conduct an integrated simulation and optimization analysis looking for the relocation strategy of a long-term regular off-site monitoring network at a nuclear power plant. The planning goal is to downsize the current monitoring network but maintain its monitoring capacity as much as possible. The monitoring sensors considered in this study include the thermoluminescence dosimetry (TLD) and air sampling system (AP) simultaneously. It is designed for detecting the radionuclide accumulative concentration, the frequency of violation, and the possible population affected by a long-term impact in the surrounding area regularly while it can also be used in an accidental release event. With the aid of the calibrated Industrial Source Complex–Plume Rise Model Enhancements (ISC-PRIME) simulation model to track down the possible radionuclide diffusion, dispersion, transport, and transformation process in the atmospheric environment, a multiobjective evaluation process can be applied to achieve the screening of monitoring stations for the nuclear power plant located at Hengchun Peninsula, South Taiwan. To account for multiple objectives, this study calculated preference weights to linearly combine objective functions leading to decision-making with exposure assessment in an optimization context. Final suggestions should be useful for narrowing the set of scenarios that decision-makers need to consider in this relocation process.