Effects of Pond Draining on Biodiversity and Water Quality of Farm Ponds

Farm ponds have high conservation value because they contribute significantly to regional biodiversity and ecosystem services. In Japan pond draining is a traditional management method that is widely believed to improve water quality and eradicate invasive fish. In addition, fishing by means of pond draining has significant cultural value for local people, serving as a social event. However, there is a widespread belief that pond draining reduces freshwater biodiversity through the extirpation of aquatic animals, but scientific evaluation of the effectiveness of pond draining is lacking. We conducted a large‐scale field study to evaluate the effects of pond draining on invasive animal control, water quality, and aquatic biodiversity relative to different pond‐management practices, pond physicochemistry, and surrounding land use. The results of boosted regression‐tree models and analyses of similarity showed that pond draining had little effect on invasive fish control, water quality, or aquatic biodiversity. Draining even facilitated the colonization of farm ponds by invasive red swamp crayfish (Procambarus clarkii), which in turn may have detrimental effects on the biodiversity and water quality of farm ponds. Our results highlight the need for reconsidering current pond management and developing management plans with respect to multifunctionality of such ponds. Efectos del Drenado de Estanques sobre la Biodiversidad y la Calidad del Agua en Estanques de Cultivo     

Using Population Viability Criteria to Assess Strategies to Minimize Disease Threats for an Endangered Carnivore

Outbreaks of infectious disease represent serious threats to the viability of many vertebrate populations, but few studies have included quantitative evaluations of alternative approaches to the management of disease. The most prevalent management approach is monitoring for and rapid response to an epizootic. An alternative is vaccination of a subset of the free‐living population (i.e., a “vaccinated core”) such that some individuals are partially or fully immune in the event of an epizootic. We developed a simulation model describing epizootic dynamics, which we then embedded in a demographic simulation to assess these alternative approaches to managing rabies epizootics in the island fox (Urocyon littoralis), a species composed of only 6 small populations on the California Channel Islands. Although the monitor and respond approach was superior to the vaccinated‐core approach for some transmission models and parameter values, this type of reactive management did not protect the population from rabies under many disease‐transmission assumptions. In contrast, a logistically feasible program of prophylactic vaccination for part of the wild population yielded low extinction probabilities across all likely disease‐transmission scenarios, even with recurrent disease introductions. Our use of a single metric of successful management—probability of extreme endangerment (i.e., quasi extinction)—to compare very different management approaches allowed an objective assessment of alternative strategies for controlling the threats posed by infectious disease outbreaks. Utilización de Criterios de Viabilidad Poblacional para Evaluar Estrategias para Minimizar Amenazas de Enfermedades para un Carnívoro en Peligro     

Six Common Mistakes in Conservation Priority Setting

A vast number of prioritization schemes have been developed to help conservation navigate tough decisions about the allocation of finite resources. However, the application of quantitative approaches to setting priorities in conservation frequently includes mistakes that can undermine their authors’ intention to be more rigorous and scientific in the way priorities are established and resources allocated. Drawing on well‐established principles of decision science, we highlight 6 mistakes commonly associated with setting priorities for conservation: not acknowledging conservation plans are prioritizations; trying to solve an ill‐defined problem; not prioritizing actions; arbitrariness; hidden value judgments; and not acknowledging risk of failure. We explain these mistakes and offer a path to help conservation planners avoid making the same mistakes in future prioritizations. Seis Errores Comunes en la Definición de Prioridades de Conservación     

Testing Decision Rules for Categorizing Species’ Extinction Risk to Help Develop Quantitative Listing Criteria for the U.S. Endangered Species Act

Lack of guidance for interpreting the definitions of endangered and threatened in the U.S. Endangered Species Act (ESA) has resulted in case‐by‐case decision making leaving the process vulnerable to being considered arbitrary or capricious. Adopting quantitative decision rules would remedy this but requires the agency to specify the relative urgency concerning extinction events over time, cutoff risk values corresponding to different levels of protection, and the importance given to different types of listing errors. We tested the performance of 3 sets of decision rules that use alternative functions for weighting the relative urgency of future extinction events: a threshold rule set, which uses a decision rule of x% probability of extinction over y years; a concave rule set, where the relative importance of future extinction events declines exponentially over time; and a shoulder rule set that uses a sigmoid shape function, where relative importance declines slowly at first and then more rapidly. We obtained decision cutoffs by interviewing several biologists and then emulated the listing process with simulations that covered a range of extinction risks typical of ESA listing decisions. We evaluated performance of the decision rules under different data quantities and qualities on the basis of the relative importance of misclassification errors. Although there was little difference between the performance of alternative decision rules for correct listings, the distribution of misclassifications differed depending on the function used. Misclassifications for the threshold and concave listing criteria resulted in more overprotection errors, particularly as uncertainty increased, whereas errors for the shoulder listing criteria were more symmetrical. We developed and tested the framework for quantitative decision rules for listing species under the U.S. ESA. If policy values can be agreed on, use of this framework would improve the implementation of the ESA by increasing transparency and consistency. Evaluando Reglas de Decisión para Categorizar el Riesgo de Extinción de Especies con el Fin de Desarrollar de Criterios Cuantitativos de Alistamiento en el Acta de Especies en Peligro de los EE. UU.     

Testing Hypotheses of Bird Extinctions at Rio Palenque,Ecuador, with Informal Species Lists

Abstract: Informally gathered species lists are a potential source of data for conservation biology, but most remain unused because of questions of reliability and statistical issues. We applied two alternative analytical methods (contingency tests and occupancy modeling) to a 35‐year data set (1973–2007) to test hypotheses about local bird extinction. We compiled data from bird lists collected by expert amateurs and professional scientists in a 2‐km² fragment of lowland tropical forest in coastal Ecuador. We tested the effects of the following on local extinction: trophic level, sociality, foraging specialization, light tolerance, geographical range area, and biogeographic source. First we assessed extinction on the basis of the number of years in which a species was not detected on the site and used contingency tests with each factor to compare the frequency of expected and observed extinction events among different species categories. Then we defined four multiyear periods that reflected different stages of deforestation and isolation of the study site and used occupancy modeling to test extinction hypotheses singly and in combination. Both types of analyses supported the biogeographic source hypothesis and the species‐range hypothesis as causes of extinction; however, occupancy modeling indicated the model incorporating all factors except foraging specialization best fit the data.     

Exceptional responders in conservation

Conservation operates within complex systems with incomplete knowledge of the system and the interventions utilized. This frequently results in the inability to find generally applicable methods to alleviate threats to Earth's vanishing wildlife. One approach used in medicine and the social sciences has been to develop a deeper understanding of positive outliers. Where such outliers share similar characteristics, they may be considered exceptional responders. We devised a 4‐step framework for identifying exceptional responders in conservation: identification of the study system, identification of the response structure, identification of the threshold for exceptionalism, and identification of commonalities among outliers. Evaluation of exceptional responders provides additional information that is often ignored in randomized controlled trials and before–after control‐intervention experiments. Interrogating the contextual factors that contribute to an exceptional outcome allow exceptional responders to become valuable pieces of information leading to unexpected discoveries and novel hypotheses.     

Evaluating impacts of forage fish abundance on marine predators

Forage fish—small, low trophic level, pelagic fish such as herrings, sardines, and anchovies—are important prey species in marine ecosystems and also support large commercial fisheries. In many parts of the world, forage fish fisheries are managed using precautionary principles that target catch limits below the maximum sustainable yield. However, there are increasing calls to further limit forage fish catch to safeguard their fish, seabird, and marine mammal predators. The effectiveness of these extra-precautionary regulations, which assume that increasing prey abundance increases predator productivity, are under debate. In this study, we used prey-linked population models to measure the influence of forage fish abundance on the population growth rates of 45 marine predator populations representing 32 fish, seabird, and mammal species from 5 regions around the world. We used simulated data to confirm the ability of the statistical model to accurately detect prey influences under varying levels of influence strength and process variability. Our results indicate that predator productivity was rarely influenced by the abundance of their forage fish prey. Only 6 predator populations (13% of the total) were positively influenced by increasing prey abundance and the model exhibited high power to detect prey influences when they existed. These results suggest that additional limitation of forage fish harvest to levels well below sustainable yields would rarely result in detectable increases in marine predator populations.     

Effectiveness of protected areas for vertebrates based on taxonomic and phylogenetic diversity

Establishing protected areas is the primary goal and tool for preventing irreversible biodiversity loss. However, the effectiveness of protected areas that target specific species has been questioned for some time because targeting key species for conservation may impair the integral regional pool of species diversity and phylogenetic and functional diversity are seldom considered. We assessed the efficacy of protected areas in China for the conservation of phylogenetic diversity based on the ranges and phylogenies of 2279 terrestrial vertebrates. Phylogenetic and taxonomic diversity were strongly and positively correlated, and only 12.1–43.8% of priority conservation areas are currently protected. However, the patterns and coverage of phylogenetic diversity were affected when weighted by species richness. These results indicated that in China, protected areas targeting high species richness protected phylogenetic diversity well overall but failed to do so in some regions with more unique or threatened communities (e.g., coastal areas of eastern China, where severely threatened avian communities were less protected). Our results suggest that the current distribution of protected areas could be improved, although most protected areas protect both taxonomic and phylogenetic diversity.     

Long-term drivers of persistence and colonization dynamics in spatially structured amphibian populations

Many organisms live in networks of local populations connected by dispersing individuals, called spatially structured populations (SSPs), where the long-term persistence of the entire network is determined by the balance between 2 processes acting at the scale of local populations: extinction and colonization. When multiple threats act on an SSP, a comparison of the different factors determining local extinctions and colonizations is essential to plan sound conservation actions. We assessed the drivers of long-term population dynamics of multiple amphibian species at the regional scale. We used dynamic occupancy models within a Bayesian framework to identify the factors determining persistence and colonization of local populations. Because connectivity among patches is fundamental to SSPs dynamics, we considered 2 measures of connectivity acting on each focal patch: incidence of the focal species and incidence of invasive crayfish. We used meta-analysis to summarize the effect of different drivers at the community level. Persistence and colonization of local populations were jointly determined by factors acting at different scales. Persistence probability was positively related to the area and the permanence of wetlands, whereas it was negatively related to occurrence of fish. Colonization probability was highest in semipermanent wetlands and in sites with a high incidence of the focal species in nearby sites, whereas it showed a negative relationship with the incidence of invasive crayfish in the landscape. By analyzing long-term data on amphibian population dynamics, we found a strong effect of some classic features commonly used in SSP studies, such as patch area and focal species incidence. The presence of an invasive non-native species at the landscape scale emerged as one of the strongest drivers of colonization dynamics, suggesting that studies on SSPs should consider different connectivity measures more frequently, such as the incidence of predators, especially when dealing with biological invasions.     

A Contemporary Assessment of Change in Humid Tropical Forests

Abstract: In recent decades the rate and geographic extent of land‐use and land‐cover change has increased throughout the world's humid tropical forests. The pan‐tropical geography of forest change is a challenge to assess, and improved estimates of the human footprint in the tropics are critical to understanding potential changes in biodiversity. We combined recently published and new satellite observations, along with images from Google Earth and a literature review, to estimate the contemporary global extent of deforestation, selective logging, and secondary regrowth in humid tropical forests. Roughly 1.4% of the biome was deforested between 2000 and 2005. As of 2005, about half of the humid tropical forest biome contained 50% or less tree cover. Although not directly comparable to deforestation, geographic estimates of selective logging indicate that at least 20% of the humid tropical forest biome was undergoing some level of timber harvesting between 2000 and 2005. Forest recovery estimates are even less certain, but a compilation of available reports suggests that at least 1.2% of the humid tropical forest biome was in some stage of long‐term secondary regrowth in 2000. Nearly 70% of the regrowth reports indicate forest regeneration in hilly, upland, and mountainous environments considered marginal for large‐scale agriculture and ranching. Our estimates of the human footprint are conservative because they do not resolve very small‐scale deforestation, low‐intensity logging, and unreported secondary regrowth, nor do they incorporate other impacts on tropical forest ecosystems, such as fire and hunting. Our results highlight the enormous geographic extent of forest change throughout the humid tropics and the considerable limitations of the science and technology available for such a synthesis.