应急准备任务设置与应急响应能力建设——基于情景-任务-能力应急预案编制技术研究之二

应急准备任务设置和应急响应能力建设是应急管理中重要内容,是突发事件应急预案编制前置条件和基础。基于情景-任务-能力应急预案管理思想,描述了突发事件应急准备任务和应急响应能力的概念、方法和内容,提出了突发事件应急准备的共同任务和职责任务的一览表,并对共同任务中应急准备一项的内容做了具体介绍。在提出应急响应能力一览表的同时,论述了其功能及发展。     

组织间目标差异对应急合作关系的影响 ——信息分享行为的中介作用及任务不确定性的调节效应

合作关系质量的高低直接影响应急活动的成败,如何改善合作关系,从而提高协同绩效是应急管理领域亟待解决的问题。探讨组织间目标差异对应急合作关系的影响,并重点分析信息分享行为和任务不确定性在以上关系中所起的中介作用及调节效应。通过对239位基层应急指挥人员的问卷调查数据进行层级回归分析发现:组织间目标差异对应急合作关系有显著的负向影响;信息分享行为在二者之间起到部分中介作用;任务不确定性对组织间目标差异与社会确认之间的关系没有显著影响,但对组织间目标差异与目标确认之间的关系存在显著的负向影响。结论表明,高层应急指挥人员可采用信息公告牌、制定信息沟通内容结构框架的措施来约束社会确认信息的传递。     

重大道路交通事故救援“任务—职责—履责”探讨

突发事件应对中因救援任务不明确、应对主体职责不清、履责路径不通畅而导致事态扩大和严重问责的情况时有发生,这已成为应急绩效评估中常见的、亟需解决的问题。以某次特别重大道路交通事故应急为切入点,借助高速公路特殊路段典型交通事故救援演练实践,梳理了道路交通事故救援任务单元,匹配了各任务单元的责任主体和应急职责,并析出基于各责任主体应急角色交互的履责路径。该研究对提升当地道路交通事故应急救援整体水平具有借鉴价值。     

武器装备备件维修任务预测

在对备件的寿命分布类型进行分析的基础上,建立了服从各种分布的备件维修任务预测模型,并从装备可靠性、装备部署数量、装备的复杂程度及装备工作强度4个方面进行了仿真分析。     

基于维修任务分配的新型装备备件品种确定方法研究

备件需求的确定是装备维修保障的关键性工作之一。基于维修任务分配的备件品种确定方法是一种应用维修任务分配与保障资源需求分析技术,是确定备件需求品种的定性分析方法。通过对装备的所有维修项目进行分配,并分析各维修项目中所需的备件,确定了装备维修所需备件的品种。该方法虽然工作量较大,但简明直观,分析结果全面、科学、合理。     

不同休息方式对缓解监控作业疲劳的作用研究

为探讨消极休息与积极休息对缓解监控作业疲劳的作用,在分析监控作业特点基础上,利用计算机语言编程模拟监控作业,设计两个主实验分别从主观评价及生理心理指标测量等方面对被试者在采用不同方式休息前后的疲劳指标进行测量,并对数据进行差异性分析。实验数据分析结果表明:日常工作和生活中大家较多采用的消极休息方式能够在有限时间内较好缓解监控作业疲劳,以小强度运动为主的积极休息方式也能够较好地起到缓解监控作业疲劳的效果。但经过同样时间、同样强度的监控作业后,在相同短的休息时间内,采用积极休息方式比采用消极休息方式对于缓解监控作业疲劳更有效。     

抓住机遇创新开拓打好天津市环境保护“一控双达标”攻坚战

本文全面回顾了１９９８年天津市环境保护工作,分析了当前形势以及进一步做好工作应把握的几个问题。围绕抓住机遇,打好天津市环境保护“一控双达标”攻坚战,提出了１９９９年的工作目标任务及具体措施。     

AN EARLY WARNING SYSTEM FOR DROUGHT MANAGEMENT USING THE PALMER DROUGHT INDEX1

ABSTRACT: The Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) is used in a non-homogeneous Markov chain model to characterize the stochastic behavior of drought. Based on this characterization an early warning system in the form of a decision tree enumerating all possible sequences of drought progression is proposed for drought management. Besides yielding probabilities of occurrence of different drought severity classes, the method associates a secondary measure in terms of likely cumulative precipitation deficit to provide timely guidance in deciding drought mitigation actions. The proposed method is particularly useful for water availability task forces in various states for issuing drought warnings in advance. The applicability of the technique is illustrated for the Tidewater climatic division of Virginia.     

Tracing the physiological response and behavioral performance of drivers at different levels of mental workload using driving simulators

Introduction: The use of mobile phones while driving is known to be a distraction factor and a cause of accidents. The way in which different kinds of conversations affect the behavioral performance of the driver as well as the persistence of the effects are not yet fully understood. Method: In this study, in addition to comparing brain function and behavioral function in dual task conditions in three conversations types, the persistent effects of these types of conversations have also been traced. Results: The results show that the content of the mobile phone conversation while driving is the cause of the persistent changes in behavioral and brain functions. Increased time headway and lane departure was observed during and up to 5 min after the emotional conversation was finished. EEG bands also varied in different types of conversations. Cognitive conversations caused an increase in the activity of the alpha and beta bands while emotional conversations enhanced the rate of gamma and beta bands. A meaningful correlation was found between changes in the theta and alpha bands and changes in behavioral performance both during the dual task condition and after the conversation was finished, was also observed. Conclusions: The content of the conversation is one of the most important factors that increase the risk of road accidents. This can also deteriorate the behavioral performance of the driver and can have persistent effects on behavioral performance and the brain. Practical applications: The findings of this study provide a basis to measure and tracing drivers’ cognitive distractions induced by different levels of mental workload through physiological and behavioral performances.     

基于任务特征的电网企业应急预案体系重构*

为解决目前电网企业应急预案体系建设存在的内容泛化、管理成本高等问题,提出基于任务特征的应急预案体系重构思路,运用情景构建方法,开展电网企业突发事件影响场景和处置任务分析,得出7个影响场景、10类处置任务和38项子任务。结果表明:电网企业应急处置任务具有收敛性特征。通过应急预案与处置任务匹配,重构应急预案体系结构和预案定位,构建以通用性部门应急预案及现场处置方案为建设重点的新型应急预案体系,形成“通用性预案工具箱”,实现预案衔接“无缝化”、预案内容“本地化”、管理成本“聚焦化”。