民国初年灾荒史研究综述

自民国迄今,一些政治家、思想家及学者分别从自然科学角度和社会历史角度对民国初年灾荒史予以诠释,依时间而言主要集中于20世纪80年代以后,依内容而言又呈现出一种多元化的态势。其间,虽然取得了一定的成就,诸如积累了一些资料、研究内容多样化等,但仍存在着一些不足。     

大气飘尘中苯并[a]芘的激光诱导荧光法测定

以激光诱导荧光法测定大气飘尘中的苯并[a]芘。方法的检测限为0.01μg·l~(-1),降低了常规荧光法的检测限。综合溶剂提取、柱色层及纸色层分离技术,测定了上海市某些地区大气飘尘样品中苯并[a]芘的含量。     

香港近海海域叶绿素a定量反演及时空变化分析

以2009~2019年HJ-1A/B卫星多光谱数据和对应日期的实测数据为数据源,通过预处理提取出各波段组合反射率并与实测叶绿素a浓度数据进行统计相关性分析,选取相关性最高的波段组合作为特征变量与2/3的实测叶绿素a浓度数据进行建模,并用剩下的1/3实测叶绿素a浓度数据进行精度验证以确定最佳遥感反演模型,最后根据最佳反演模型对2009-2019年的香港近海海域叶绿素a浓度进行反演,明晰该海域近10年的叶绿素a浓度时空变化特征.结果表明：利用HJ-1A/B卫星多光谱数据反演香港近海海域叶绿素a浓度的最佳波段组合为第3波段和第2波段比值（B3/B2）,相关系数（r）为0.893;最佳反演模型为利用B3/B2构建的e指数回归模型（Chl=0.004e^6.693(B3/B2)）,决定系数（R²）为0.934,均方根误差（RMSE）为0.255μg/L,平均相对误差（RPD）为25%;近10年香港近海海域的叶绿素a浓度时空变化特征：空间上整体呈现“东高西低,由东向西逐渐减小”的分布特征,西部海域比东部海域平均浓度低5μg/L左右;2017年内呈“春低秋高,夏升冬降”的随季节变化特点,其中秋季最高,夏春两季次之,冬季最低.     

废弃农药厂拆除过程对周边土壤DDTs污染影响

分4批次分别采集某废弃农药厂拆除前和拆除后周边土壤,研究土壤中DDTs含量、分布和组成的变化特征.结果表明,拆除1个月后,土壤中DDTs残留量（平均为334ng/g）明显大于拆除前（平均为97.0ng/g）,之后土壤中DDTs的残留量明显下降.拆除前,周边土壤中以p,p'-DDE和p,p'-DDD为主,平均浓度分别为35.6和31.0ng/g;拆除后以p,p'-DDT为主要残留污染物,平均浓度为289ng/g,较拆除前（9.69ng/g）增长了28.9倍.来源分析表明,农药厂拆除前周边土壤中DDTs的污染主要受厂区内历史工业品DDTs生产和农田使用的三氯杀螨醇共同影响,而拆除过程周边土壤DDTs污染的贡献主要来自于厂区内工业品DDTs的挥发.在空间分布上,拆除前和拆除后整体上西部区域土壤的污染程度高于东部区域.     

Assessing the extent and nature of wildlife trade on the dark web

Use of the internet as a trade platform has resulted in a shift in the illegal wildlife trade. Increased scrutiny of illegal wildlife trade has led to concerns that online trade of wildlife will move onto the dark web. To provide a baseline of illegal wildlife trade on the dark web, we downloaded and archived 9852 items (individual posts) from the dark web, then searched these based on a list of 121 keywords associated with illegal online wildlife trade, including 30 keywords associated with illegally traded elephant ivory on the surface web. Results were compared with items known to be illegally traded on the dark web, specifically cannabis, cocaine, and heroin, to compare the extent of the trade. Of these 121 keywords, 4 resulted in hits, of which only one was potentially linked to illegal wildlife trade. This sole case was the sale and discussion of Echinopsis pachanoi (San Pedro cactus), which has hallucinogenic properties. This negligible level of activity related to the illegal trade of wildlife on the dark web relative to the open and increasing trade on the surface web may indicate a lack of successful enforcement against illegal wildlife trade on the surface web.     

Latent Extinction and Invasion Risk of Crayfishes in the Southeastern United States

Abstract: Crayfishes are both a highly imperiled invertebrate group as well as one that has produced many invasive species, which have negatively affected freshwater ecosystems throughout the world. We performed a trait analysis for 77 crayfishes from the southeastern United States in an attempt to understand which biological and ecological traits make these species prone to imperilment or invasion, and to predict which species may face extinction or become invasive in the future. We evaluated biological and ecological traits with principal coordinate analysis and classification trees. Invasive and imperiled crayfishes occupied different positions in multivariate trait space, although crayfishes invasive at different scales (extraregional vs. extralimital) were also distinct. Extraregional crayfishes (large, high fecundity, habitat generalists) were most distinct from imperiled crayfishes (small, low fecundity, habitat specialists), thus supporting the “two sides of the same coin” hypothesis. Correct classification rates for assignment of crayfishes as invasive or imperiled were high (70–80%), even when excluding the highly predictive but potentially confounding trait of range size (75–90%). We identified a number of species that, although not currently listed as imperiled or found outside their native range, possess many of the life‐history and ecological traits characteristic of currently invasive or imperiled taxa. Such species exhibit a high latent risk of extinction or invasion and consequently should be the focus of proactive conservation or management strategies. Our results illustrate the utility of trait‐based approaches for taxonomic groups such as invertebrates, for which detailed species‐specific data are rare and conservation resources are chronically limited.     

Effects of Customary Marine Closures on Fish Behavior,Spear‐Fishing Success,and Underwater Visual Surveys

Abstract: Customary management systems (i.e., management systems that limit the use of marine resources), such as rotational fisheries closures, can limit harvest of resources. Nevertheless, the explicit goals of customary management are often to influence fish behavior (in particular flight distance, i.e., distance at which an organism begins to flee an approaching threat), rather than fish abundance. We explored whether the flight distance of reef fishes targeted by local artisanal fishers differed between a customary closure and fished reefs. We also examined whether flight distance of these species affected fishing success and accuracy of underwater visual census (UVC) between customary closed areas and areas open to fishing. Several species demonstrated significant differences in flight distance between areas, indicating that fishing activity may increase flight distance. These relatively long flight distances mean that in fished areas most target species may stay out of the range of spear fishers. In addition, mean flight distances for all species both inside and outside the customary‐closure area were substantially smaller than the observation distance of an observer conducting a belt‐transect UVC (mean [SE]= 8.8 m [0.48]). For targeted species that showed little ability to evade spear fishers, customary closures may be a vital management technique. Our results show that customary closures can have a substantial, positive effect on resource availability and that conventional UVC techniques may be insensitive to changes in flight behavior of fishes associated with fishing. We argue that short, periodic openings of customary closures may allow the health of the fish community to be maintained and local fishers to effectively harvest fishes.     

Generation of Priority Research Questions to Inform Conservation Policy and Management at a National Level

Abstract: Integrating knowledge from across the natural and social sciences is necessary to effectively address societal tradeoffs between human use of biological diversity and its preservation. Collaborative processes can change the ways decision makers think about scientific evidence, enhance levels of mutual trust and credibility, and advance the conservation policy discourse. Canada has responsibility for a large fraction of some major ecosystems, such as boreal forests, Arctic tundra, wetlands, and temperate and Arctic oceans. Stressors to biological diversity within these ecosystems arise from activities of the country's resource‐based economy, as well as external drivers of environmental change. Effective management is complicated by incongruence between ecological and political boundaries and conflicting perspectives on social and economic goals. Many knowledge gaps about stressors and their management might be reduced through targeted, timely research. We identify 40 questions that, if addressed or answered, would advance research that has a high probability of supporting development of effective policies and management strategies for species, ecosystems, and ecological processes in Canada. A total of 396 candidate questions drawn from natural and social science disciplines were contributed by individuals with diverse organizational affiliations. These were collaboratively winnowed to 40 by our team of collaborators. The questions emphasize understanding ecosystems, the effects and mitigation of climate change, coordinating governance and management efforts across multiple jurisdictions, and examining relations between conservation policy and the social and economic well‐being of Aboriginal peoples. The questions we identified provide potential links between evidence from the conservation sciences and formulation of policies for conservation and resource management. Our collaborative process of communication and engagement between scientists and decision makers for generating and prioritizing research questions at a national level could be a model for similar efforts beyond Canada.     

Living at the Edge: Local versus Positional Factors in the Long‐Term Population Dynamics of an Endangered Orchid

Abstract: Populations at the margin of geographic ranges of distribution have been considered more vulnerable than central ones, but recent reviews have caste doubt on this generalization. We examined the reproductive and demographic performance of a rare Euroasiatic orchid (Cypripedium calceolus) at its southwesterly range limit and compared our findings with those of previous studies of nine central populations at the center of the orchid's range. We sought to test the central‐marginal model and to evaluate factors involved in long‐term performance of forest Eurosiberian species with peripheral populations in southern European mountains. We characterized (structure, temporal fluctuations, herbivory, reproductive success, and recruitment at different habitats) four Pyrenean populations of C. calceolus of different sizes (5–3500 ramets) and monitored three of them for up to 13 years. Two quantitative stochastic models (count data and matrix models) were used to assess population trends and viability and the effect of herbivory. Contrary to expectations, and despite the negative effect of sporadic events of herbivory, the peripheral populations we studied (except the smallest one) performed similarly or better than populations occurring in central part of the species’ range in terms of reproductive success and population growth rates. Landscape changes over the last 50 years suggest that natural reforestation could be involved in the success of this plant at its southern limit. Forest expansion in the mountain regions of southern Europe may provide new opportunities for plants with geographic distributions centered mainly at higher latitudes and give some hope for their recovery in future scenarios dominated by biodiversity loss.     

A spatial approach to combatting wildlife crime

Poaching can have devastating impacts on animal and plant numbers, and in many countries has reached crisis levels, with illegal hunters employing increasingly sophisticated techniques. We used data from an 8‐year study in Savé Valley Conservancy, Zimbabwe, to show how geographic profiling—a mathematical technique originally developed in criminology and recently applied to animal foraging and epidemiology—can be adapted for use in investigations of wildlife crime. The data set contained information on over 10,000 incidents of illegal hunting and the deaths of 6,454 wild animals. We used a subset of data for which the illegal hunters’ identities were known. Our model identified the illegal hunters’ home villages based on the spatial locations of the hunting incidences (e.g., snares). Identification of the villages was improved by manipulating the probability surface inside the conservancy to reflect the fact that although the illegal hunters mostly live outside the conservancy, the majority of hunting occurs inside the conservancy (in criminology terms, commuter crime). These results combined with rigorous simulations showed for the first time how geographic profiling can be combined with GIS data and applied to situations with more complex spatial patterns, for example, where landscape heterogeneity means some parts of the study area are less likely to be used (e.g., aquatic areas for terrestrial animals) or where landscape permeability differs (e.g., forest bats tend not to fly over open areas). More broadly, these results show how geographic profiling can be used to target antipoaching interventions more effectively and more efficiently and to develop management strategies and conservation plans in a range of conservation scenarios.