1994~2006年上海市土地利用时空变化特征及驱动力分析

快速发展的都市地区是区域土地利用变化研究热点。基于上海市1994、2000、2003和2006年4期航空遥感影像资料数据,运用人机交互目视解译方法建立上海土地利用空间数据库,并结合GIS空间分析、数理统计方法与土地利用动态度模型,对上海市1994~2006年土地利用时空变化特征进行了深入分析。结果表明：12 a间,上海市综合土地利用动态度为207%;在各种用地变化中,耕地面积变化最大,共减少了94 00772 hm2,减幅达233%;从耕地转移来看,转变为城镇建设用地（包括工业仓储用地、交通用地、城镇居民点用地和其他用地）面积共74 82586 hm2,占耕地面积总流出量的6712%;可见城镇建设用地急剧扩张而大量占用耕地,是上海市土地利用变化的主要特征;上海市土地利用变化的另一个重要特征是城市绿地的大幅增加,12 a间城市绿地面积共增加了9 29241 hm2,单一动态度为1876%。从上海土地利用变化的区域特征来看,各区的综合土地利用动态度差异明显,且表现出明显的中心城区-近郊-远郊递减趋势,其中浦东新区综合土地利用动态度最大,崇明县最小,这种差异与各区（县）的区位条件、经济发展状况以及政策等因素密切相关。通过对上海LUCC的驱动力定性定量分析表明,社会经济因素包括人口分布及变化、经济增长、人民生活水平的提高、政策以及国际大型活动的举办均对上海土地利用格局及其变化产生了重要的影响     

A stage-structured, Aedes albopictus population model

Aedes albopictus has been the fastest spreading invasive animal species in the world from the mid-1980s until the mid-2000s. In areas it infests, it disrupts native mosquito ecology and can potentially vector up to 21 viruses. To better understand the population dynamics of this species, we created a temperature dependent population model. A stage-structured model was chosen to allow each life-stage to have different temperature dependent mortality and development rates, and each stage was modeled with an ordinary differential equation. Model parameters and distributions were based upon literature values. Initially, a basic model was constructed. This model then had parameters that were forced based upon daily average temperatures. Several criteria were used to evaluate the model, including a comparison to field data from Lubbock, TX. In a stochastic version of the model, a 95% confidence limit contained 70.7% of the field data points. Based upon these results, we feel reasonably confident that we have captured the role of temperature in driving the population dynamics of Ae. albopictus.     

Biodiversity Differences between Managed and Unmanaged Forests: Meta-Analysis of Species Richness in Europe

Abstract: Past and present pressures on forest resources have led to a drastic decrease in the surface area of unmanaged forests in Europe. Changes in forest structure, composition, and dynamics inevitably lead to changes in the biodiversity of forest‐dwelling species. The possible biodiversity gains and losses due to forest management (i.e., anthropogenic pressures related to direct forest resource use), however, have never been assessed at a pan‐European scale. We used meta‐analysis to review 49 published papers containing 120 individual comparisons of species richness between unmanaged and managed forests throughout Europe. We explored the response of different taxonomic groups and the variability of their response with respect to time since abandonment and intensity of forest management. Species richness was slightly higher in unmanaged than in managed forests. Species dependent on forest cover continuity, deadwood, and large trees (bryophytes, lichens, fungi, saproxylic beetles) and carabids were negatively affected by forest management. In contrast, vascular plant species were favored. The response for birds was heterogeneous and probably depended more on factors such as landscape patterns. The global difference in species richness between unmanaged and managed forests increased with time since abandonment and indicated a gradual recovery of biodiversity. Clearcut forests in which the composition of tree species changed had the strongest effect on species richness, but the effects of different types of management on taxa could not be assessed in a robust way because of low numbers of replications in the management‐intensity classes. Our results show that some taxa are more affected by forestry than others, but there is a need for research into poorly studied species groups in Europe and in particular locations. Our meta‐analysis supports the need for a coordinated European research network to study and monitor the biodiversity of different taxa in managed and unmanaged forests.     

提高碳汇潜力：量化树种和造林模式对碳储量的影响

全球气候变化背景下,造林再造林固定的碳可以抵消温室气体减限排量。通过造林再造林增加森林面积可以增加林业碳汇,在土地面积有限的情况下,提高造林质量——在有限的造林面积上固定更多的碳是十分必要的。树种和造林模式的选择是增加森林生态系统碳汇的重要管理决策。文章综述了树种和造林模式对生态系统的碳储量的影响。树种从生物量的积累,凋落物和土壤碳储存,以及木材密度、碳贮存量等几个方面探讨其对生态系统碳库的影响。混交林能充分利用立地条件、改善树木营养状况,并且可以减少病虫害和森林火灾。同时分析了我国在森林经营方面存在的问题和改善途径,以期为该领域的研究提供参考。     

Current state and long-term changes of the <Emphasis Type="Italic">Crenomytilus grayanus</Emphasis> community in Vostok Bay,Sea of Japan

The composition and structure of the Gray mussel (Crenomytilus grayanus) community in Vostok Bay of the Sea of Japan have been studied. A total of 165 species have been identified in the macrobenthos. Its species composition has changed insignificantly since the 1970s. The total biomass of the biocenosis has decreased, and the size-age composition of the C. grayanus population has changed due to poaching. The trophic structure of the community has also changed, with the Shannon indices of species diversity and equitability (E) becoming lower, due to intensive organic pollution of Vostok Bay resulting from increasing recreational activities and sewage discharge.     

我国自然灾害时空分布及其粮食风险评估

分析了旱灾、水灾、风雹灾、霜冻灾、台风灾和农业病虫害、草害、鼠害8种自然灾害的时空分布情况,计算了其造成的历年粮食减产量,并在此基础上评估2020年自然灾害对粮食产量的影响。结果表明,2020年不同自然灾害对我国各省粮食生产的影响程度不同。旱灾风险区集中在我国北方地区,分布在黄淮海区、西北区等;涝灾风险区集中在我国南方地区,分布在长江中下游区等;风雹灾风险区对我国粮食产量影响相对较小,主要分布在新疆和青海;台风灾风险区集中在我国南方沿海地区;农业病虫害风险区集中在我国的南方地区,分布在华南沿海区和西南区等;而霜冻灾、农业草害、鼠害对粮食生产的影响范围和影响程度较小。     

Temporal limits to simulating the future spread pattern of invasive species: Buddleja davidii in Europe and New Zealand

The spread of invasive species is a major ecological and economic problem. Dynamic spread modelling is a potentially valuable tool to assist regional and central government authorities to monitor and control invasive species. To date a lack of suitable data has meant that most broad scale dispersal models have not been validated with independent datasets, and so their predictive ability and reliability has remained unscrutinised. A dynamic, stochastic dispersal model of the widely invasive plant Buddleja davidii was calibrated on European spread data and then used to project the temporal progression of B. davidii's distribution in New Zealand, starting from several different historical distributions. To assess the model's performance, we constructed an occupancy map based on the average number of simulation realisations that have a population present. The application of Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curves to occupancy maps is introduced, but with specificity substituted by the proportion of available area used in a realisation. A derivative measure, the partial area under these curves when assessed through time (pAUC), is introduced and used to assess overall performance of the spread model. The model was able to attain a high level of model sensitivity, encompassing all of the known locations within the occupancy envelope. However, attempting to simulate the spread of this invasive species beyond a decade had very low model specificity. This is due to several factors, including the exponential process of spread (the further a population spreads the more sites exist from which it can spread stochastically), and the Markovian chain property of the stochastic system whereby differences between realisations compound through time. These features are seen in many reports of spread models, without being explicitly acknowledged. Our measure of pAUC through time allows a model's temporal performance and its specificity to be simultaneously assessed. While the rapid deterioration in model performance limits the utility of this type of modelling for forecasting long-term broad-scale strategic management of biological invasions, it does not necessarily limit its attractiveness for informing smaller scale and shorter term invasion management activities such as surveillance, containment and local eradication.     

垃圾填埋场大气汞的浓度和形态

对贵阳市和武汉市的5座城市生活垃圾填埋场大气中的ρ(气态总汞)进行了测定,并分析了填埋场的大气活性气态汞、颗粒态汞、单甲基汞和二甲基汞的质量浓度分布. 结果表明:5座填埋场ρ(气态总汞)为1.6～473.7 ng/m3,不同采样点的平均值为8.5～155.7 ng/m3,最高值出现在填埋场的工作面及工作面下风向区域;而封闭填埋场或运行填埋场的覆土区的ρ(气态总汞)较低. 天气条件和垃圾处理活动均可影响ρ(气态总汞)水平. 贵阳高雁垃圾填埋场大气ρ(活性气态汞),ρ(颗粒态汞),ρ(单甲基汞)和ρ(二甲基汞)的平均值分别为37.4,255.3,12.4和12.7 pg/m3. 虽然不同形态汞的质量浓度明显高于全球背景值,但其产生的环境风险不大.      

内蒙古西部入黄河沙漠颗粒物磷形态研究

用改进的Ruttenberg分析方法对不同粒径黄河上游主要入河沙漠颗粒物磷的形态分布特征进行了研究.乌兰布和沙漠和库布齐沙漠颗粒物中磷以自生钙磷为主,其次是碎屑磷.黑风口沙样中总磷含量较高,磷也以自生钙磷为主,其次是有机磷.计算了沙漠颗粒物中生物可利用磷的含量.乌兰布和沙漠每年向黄河输送约1.1万吨总磷,其中可交换磷为492t.库布齐沙漠每年向黄河输送约9200t总磷,其中可交换磷约为688L