对"十一五"期间加快环保产业结构调整的有关思考

通过介绍“十一五”期间加快进行我国环保产业结构调整的迫切性,提出了应当采取的措施及要处理好的几个关系。     

Impact of Human Activities on Carbon Dioxide (CO<Subscript>2</Subscript>) Emissions: A Statistical Analysis

Summary The balance of evidence suggests a perceptible human influence on global ecosystems. Human activities are affecting the global ecosystem, some directly and some indirectly. If researchers could clarify the extent to which specific human activities affect global ecosystems, they would be in a much better position to suggest strategies for mitigating against the worst disturbances. Sophisticated statistical analysis can help in interpreting the influence of specific human activities on global ecosystems more carefully. This study aims at identifying significant or influential human activities (i.e. factors) on CO₂ emissions using statistical analyses. The study was conducted for two cases: (i) developed countries and (ii) developing countries. In developed countries, this study identified three influential human activities for CO₂ emissions: (i) combustion of fossil fuels, (ii) population pressure on natural and terrestrial ecosystems, and (iii) land use change. In developing countries, the significant human activities causing an upsurge of CO₂ emissions are: (i) combustion of fossil fuels, (ii) terrestrial ecosystem strength and (iii) land use change. Among these factors, combustion of fossil fuels is the most influential human activity for CO₂ emissions both in developed and developing countries. Regression analysis based on the factor scores indicated that combustion of fossil fuels has significant positive influence on CO₂ emissions in both developed and developing countries. Terrestrial ecosystem strength has a significant negative influence on CO₂ emissions. Land use change and CO₂ emissions are positively related, although regression analysis showed that the influence of land use change on CO₂ emissions was still insignificant. It is anticipated, from the findings of this study, that CO₂ emissions can be reduced by reducing fossil-fuel consumption and switching to alternative energy sources, preserving exiting forests, planting trees on abandoned and degraded forest lands, or by planting trees by social/agroforestry on agricultural lands.     

Empirical Trials of Plant Field Guides

We designed 3 image‐based field guides to tropical forest plant species in Ghana, Grenada, and Cameroon and tested them with 1095 local residents and 20 botanists in the United Kingdom. We compared users’ identification accuracy with different image formats, including drawings, specimen photos, living plant photos, and paintings. We compared users’ accuracy with the guides to their accuracy with only their prior knowledge of the flora. We asked respondents to score each format for usability, beauty, and how much they would pay for it. Prior knowledge of plant names was generally low (<22%). With a few exceptions, identification accuracy did not differ significantly among image formats. In Cameroon, users identifying sterile Cola species achieved 46–56% accuracy across formats; identification was most accurate with living plant photos. Botanists in the United Kingdom accurately identified 82–93% of the same Cameroonian species; identification was most accurate with specimens. In Grenada, users accurately identified 74–82% of plants; drawings yielded significantly less accurate identifications than paintings and photos of living plants. In Ghana, users accurately identified 85% of plants. Digital color photos of living plants ranked high for beauty, usability, and what users would pay. Black and white drawings ranked low. Our results show the potential and limitations of the use of field guides and nonspecialists to identify plants, for example, in conservation applications. We recommend authors of plant field guides use the cheapest or easiest illustration format because image type had limited bearing on accuracy; match the type of illustration to the most likely use of the guide for slight improvements in accuracy; avoid black and white formats unless the audience is experienced at interpreting illustrations or keeping costs low is imperative; discourage false‐positive identifications, which were common; and encourage users to ask an expert or use a herbarium for groups that are difficult to identify. Pruebas Empíricas de Guías de Campo de Plantas Hawthorne, Cable & Marshall     

Societal implications of sustainable energy action plans: from energy modelling to stakeholder learning

This article investigates the potential impact of sustainable energy action plans (SEAPs) on local development through a two-step methodology involving participatory planning and quantitative analysis. The first phase relies on a participatory system mapping (PSM) approach and generates a causal structure at the basis of the urban model. In the second phase, we transform the qualitative map into a system dynamic model which evaluates the effect of the SEAP on social, economic and environmental indicators. This methodology was applied to the case of Cascina Municipality (Italy). Through scenario analysis, we show that some indirect feedback can harm the achievement of the 20% emission reduction target. This process allows the local authority and stakeholders to evaluate the impact of emission reduction policies on CO₂ emissions and local development, thereby generating collective learning on the systemic implications of the plan. We show that this method can enhance the ambition of emission mitigation efforts by small towns.     

Predictive Model of Avian Electrocution Risk on Overhead Power Lines

Electrocution on overhead power structures negatively affects avian populations in diverse ecosystems worldwide, contributes to the endangerment of raptor populations in Europe and Africa, and is a major driver of legal action against electric utilities in North America. We investigated factors associated with avian electrocutions so poles that are likely to electrocute a bird can be identified and retrofitted prior to causing avian mortality. We used historical data from southern California to identify patterns of avian electrocution by voltage, month, and year to identify species most often killed by electrocution in our study area and to develop a predictive model that compared poles where an avian electrocution was known to have occurred (electrocution poles) with poles where no known electrocution occurred (comparison poles). We chose variables that could be quantified by personnel with little training in ornithology or electric systems. Electrocutions were more common at distribution voltages (≤33 kV) and during breeding seasons and were more commonly reported after a retrofitting program began. Red‐tailed Hawks (Buteo jamaicensis) (n = 265) and American Crows (Corvus brachyrhynchos) (n = 258) were the most commonly electrocuted species. In the predictive model, 4 of 14 candidate variables were required to distinguish electrocution poles from comparison poles: number of jumpers (short wires connecting energized equipment), number of primary conductors, presence of grounding, and presence of unforested unpaved areas as the dominant nearby land cover. When tested against a sample of poles not used to build the model, our model distributed poles relatively normally across electrocution‐risk values and identified the average risk as higher for electrocution poles relative to comparison poles. Our model can be used to reduce avian electrocutions through proactive identification and targeting of high‐risk poles for retrofitting. Modelo Predictivo del Riesgo de Electrocución de Aves en Líneas Eléctricas Elevadas     

Use of historical and contemporary distribution of mammals in China to inform conservation

A systematic understanding of dynamic animal extinction trajectories for different regions in a nation like China is critically important to developing practical conservation strategies. We explored historical and contemporary changes in terrestrial mammalian diversity to determine how diversity in each of the 5 regions in China has changed over time and to examine the conservation potential of these regions. We used records from databases on Pleistocene mammalian fossils and historical distribution records (1175–2020) for Primates (as a case study) to reconstruct evolutionary and historical distribution trajectories of the 11 orders of terrestrial mammals and to predict their prospective survival based on the national conservation strategy applied. The results indicated that since the Pleistocene, 4–5 mammalian orders have been lost in the northeast, 3 in central China, 2 along the coast, and 1 in the northwest. In the southwest, all 11 orders were maintained. Contemporarily, the coast and southwest had the highest and second-highest species densities. The southwest region and southeastern sections of the northwest region were the most historically and contemporarily diverse areas, which suggests that they should be the first priority for protected area (PA) designation. The central and coastal areas should be secondarily prioritized. In these 2 regions, conservation should focus on human coexistence with nature. Less attention should be paid to the PA in the northeast and western northwest because in these areas ecosystems are depauperate and the climate is harsh. Conservation in these areas should focus principally on avoiding further human encroachment on natural areas. Article impact statement: Historical and contemporary patterns of extinction can be a basis for mammalian conservation strategies.     

机载武器及其双配套设备可靠性鉴定试验方案的分析

通过分析机载武器的使用特点和情况,并结合实验室开展机载武器可靠性鉴定试验的已有经验,对该类装备的可靠性鉴定试验的方案进行了分析和讨论,对试验样件在充足或不足的条件下进行试验的各种试验方案进行了深入分析。指出了各种方案的优缺点,对比了各种试验方案的特点。最后给出了机载武器可靠性鉴定统计试验方案的选取原则。     

"十三五"期间地方社会发展领域科技发展思路研究

"十三五"时期,围绕安徽省资源环境领域科技创新紧迫需求.安徽省应重点在矿产资源绿色高效开发利用、水资源高效利用、地理信息产业、水污染防治、大气污染防治、土壤污染防治、生态环境治理、再生资源综合利用、环保装备等领域实施科技攻关.通过完善普惠性创新支持政策、增加多元化科技创新投入、加大公共产品供给、加强适应新常态的社会发展科技治理体系建设等途径,切实增强社会发展领域自主创新能力.     

黑龙江省"十三五"农村环境综合整治思路及对策研究

文章总结了黑龙江省"十二五"期间农村环境整治的成效,深入分析了"十三五"期间农村环境形势及主要环境问题,划定了黑龙江省重点整治范围和优先整治区域,提出了农村环境整治的主要任务和保障措施,确定了要以农村饮用水源地保护、农村生活垃圾和污水处理、畜禽养殖废弃物资源化利用和污染防治等作为农村综合整治的重点工作任务,为黑龙江省"十三五"期间农村环境综合整治提供了方法和对策.     

辽宁省近岸海域陆源水环境风险调查评估研究

以辽宁沿海地区陆域水环境风险调查为基础,借鉴了国际海事组织《73/78防污公约》和《IBC规则》等相关管理要求及技术规定,构建了风险识别及评估体系,并对辽宁近岸海域的水环境风险状况进行了调查评估.共识别出近岸海域水环境风险源128个,其中以大连地区近岸海域水环境风险源分布最为集中,风险行业主要集中在石化加工、化学原料制造,以及原油码头、储油罐区等行业企业.