Adaptation Bridges and Barriers in Water Planning and Management: Insight from Recent Extreme Droughts in Arizona and Georgia1

Abstract: It is critical to understand the ability of water management to prepare for and respond to the likely increasing duration, frequency, and intensity of droughts brought about by climate variability and change. This article evaluates this ability, or adaptive capacity, within large urban community water systems (CWSs) in Arizona and Georgia. It analyzes interview data on the bridges and barriers to adapting water management approaches in relation to extreme droughts over the past decade. This study not only finds levers for building adaptive capacity that are unique to each state but also identifies several unifying themes that cut across both cases. The interviews also show that a particular bridge or barrier, such as state regulation, is not universally beneficial or detrimental for building adaptive capacity within each state. Such knowledge is useful for improving water and drought management and for understanding how CWSs might prepare for future climate variability and change by removing the barriers and bolstering the bridges in efforts to build adaptive capacity.     

Using the land transformation model to forecast vacant land

Growing or shrinking cities can experience increases in vacant land. As urban populations and boundaries fluctuate, holes can open in once tight urban areas. Many cities chase growth-oriented approaches to dealing with vacancies. It is critical to understand land-use alteration to accurately predict transformations of physical change in order to make better informed decisions about this phenomenon. This research utilizes the land transformation model (LTM), an artificial neural networking mechanism in Geographic Information Systems, to forecast vacant land. Variable influence on vacant land prediction and accuracy of the LTM is assessed by comparing input factors and patterns, using time-series data from 1990 to 2010 in Fort Worth, Texas, USA. Results indicate that the LTM can be useful in simulating vacant land-use changes but more precise mechanisms are necessary to increase accuracy. This will allow for more proactive decisions to better regulate the process of urban decline and regeneration.     

SACRAMENTO RIVER FLOW RECONSTRUCTED TO A.D. 869 FROM TREE RINGS1

ABSTRACT: A time series of annual flow of the Sacramento River, California, is reconstructed to A.D. 869 from tree rings for a long‐term perspective on hydrologic drought. Reconstructions derived by principal components regression of flow on time‐varying subsets of tree‐ring chronologies account for 64 to 81 percent of the flow variance in the 1906 to 1977 calibration period. A Monte Carlo analysis of reconstructed n‐year running means indicates that the gaged record contains examples of drought extremes for averaging periods of perhaps = 6 to 10 years, but not for longer and shorter averaging periods. For example, the estimated probability approaches 1.0 that the flow in A.D. 1580 was lower than the lowest single‐year gaged flow. The tree‐ring record also suggests that persistently high or low flows over 50‐year periods characterize some parts of the long‐term flow history. The results should contribute to sensible water resources planning for the Sacramento Basin and to the methodology of incorporating tree‐ring data in the assessment of the probability of hydrologic drought.     

Testing hypotheses on shape and distribution of ecological response curves

Niche theory with hypotheses on shape and distribution of ecological response curves is used in the studies of resource sharing of competing plant species. Predictions based on theory should be applicable when, e.g., effects of competing species on the ecological tolerances are assessed or species’ diversity along a resource gradient is evaluated. We studied the ecological response curves of competing plant species along a resource gradient in boreal forests. The study was based on nation-wide soil and vegetation data collected from 455 sample plots on boreal forests in Finland. Species response curves along a soil fertility gradient (in terms of C/N ratio) were estimated using generalized additive models. Distribution of species optima and the relationship of niche width and skewness to the location of the optimum were analyzed with new bootstrap tests. The developed tests can account for the effects of truncation observed in the response curves of several species and for the uneven distribution of observations on the gradient.The estimated response curves of the major field layer species of boreal forests were not evenly distributed along soil C/N gradient. The density of optima peaked with relatively high nitrogen availability. Species with optima at low nitrogen availability had relatively broad realized niches. Niche width was negatively correlated with the density of optima. Species optima were packed and niches were narrow at high resource levels. This result suggests that a greater number of more specialized species can occur and interspecific competition decreases niche widths at high resource levels. Species were packed in the gradient where the C/N ratio was lower than 25, i.e., in conditions where nitrification can take place. This indicates that the majority of the vascular plants of boreal forests are favoured by the availability of NO₃⁻. Those few species thriving at high C/N ratios have broader realized niches.     

Experimental Test of Postfire Management in Pine Forests: Impact of Salvage Logging versus Partial Cutting and Nonintervention on Bird–Species Assemblages

Abstract: There is an intense debate about the effects of postfire salvage logging versus nonintervention policies on regeneration of forest communities, but scant information from experimental studies is available. We manipulated a burned forest area on a Mediterranean mountain to experimentally analyze the effect of salvage logging on bird–species abundance, diversity, and assemblage composition. We used a randomized block design with three plots of approximately 25 ha each, established along an elevational gradient in a recently burned area in Sierra Nevada Natural and National Park (southeastern Spain). Three replicates of three treatments differing in postfire burned wood management were established per plot: salvage logging, nonintervention, and an intermediate degree of intervention (felling and lopping most of the trees but leaving all the biomass). Starting 1 year after the fire, we used point sampling to monitor bird abundance in each treatment for 2 consecutive years during the breeding and winter seasons (720 censuses total). Postfire burned‐wood management altered species assemblages. Salvage logged areas had species typical of open‐ and early‐successional habitats. Bird species that inhabit forests were still present in the unsalvaged treatments even though trees were burned, but were almost absent in salvage‐logged areas. Indeed, the main dispersers of mid‐ and late‐successional shrubs and trees, such as thrushes (Turdus spp.) and the European Jay (Garrulus glandarius) were almost restricted to unsalvaged treatments. Salvage logging might thus hamper the natural regeneration of the forest through its impact on assemblages of bird species. Moreover, salvage logging reduced species abundance by 50% and richness by 40%, approximately. The highest diversity at the landscape level (gamma diversity) resulted from a combination of all treatments. Salvage logging may be positive for bird conservation if combined in a mosaic with other, less‐aggressive postfire management, but stand‐wide management with harvest operations has undesirable conservation effects.     

Effects of Exurban Development and Temperature on Bird Species in the Southern Appalachians

Land‐use dynamics and climatic gradients have large effects on many terrestrial systems. Exurban development, one of the fastest growing forms of land use in the United States, may affect wildlife through habitat fragmentation and building presence may alter habitat quality. We studied the effects of residential development and temperature gradients on bird species occurrence at 140 study sites in the southern Appalachian Mountains (North Carolina, U.S.A.) that varied with respect to building density and elevation. We used occupancy models to determine 36 bird species’ associations with building density, forest canopy cover, average daily mean temperature, and an interaction between building density and mean temperature. Responses varied with habitat requirement, breeding range, and migration distance. Building density and mean temperature were both included in the top occupancy models for 19 of 36 species and a building density by temperature interaction was included in models for 8 bird species. As exurban development expands in the southern Appalachians, interior forest species and Neotropical migrants are likely to decline, but shrubland or edge species are not likely to benefit. Overall, effects of building density were greater than those of forest canopy cover. Exurban development had a greater effect on birds at high elevations due to a greater abundance of sensitive forest‐interior species and Neotropical migrants. A warming climate may exacerbate these negative effects. Efectos del Desarrollo Exurbano y de la Temperatura sobre Especies de Aves en las Apalaches del Sur     

Potential Impact of Climate Change on Hurricane Flooding Inundation,Population Affected and Property Damages in Corpus Christi1

Frey, Ashley E., Francisco Olivera, Jennifer L. Irish, Lauren M. Dunkin, James M. Kaihatu, Celso M. Ferreira, and Billy L. Edge, 2010. Potential Impact of Climate Change on Hurricane Flooding Inundation, Population Affected and Property Damages in Corpus Christi. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 1–11. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752-1688.2010.00475.x Abstract: The effect of climate change on storm-surge flooding and the implications for population and structural damages on the city of Corpus Christi, Texas, was investigated. The study considered the influence of sea level rise and hurricane intensification, both influenced by climate change. Combinations of future carbon dioxide equivalent emission rates and carbon dioxide doubling sensitivities, based on findings of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, were considered to define future climate scenarios. A suite of physically based numerical models for hurricane winds and the resulting waves, surge, and morphological change at the coast were used to determine flooded areas, population affected, and property damages for Hurricanes Bret, Beulah, and a version of Carla shifted south from its original track, under present and predicted future climate conditions. A comparison of the economic damages for current climate conditions and for the 2080s climate scenario shows that, for Carla (shifted), there will be an increase in the range of $270-1,100 million; for Beulah, of $100-390 million; and, for Bret, of $30-280 million. A similar analysis was also conducted for 2030s predicted climate scenarios. Overall, the comparison of the results for the different climate conditions indicates what the destructive consequences of climate change could be, even within the somewhat short time frame of 80 years considered here.     

Hunter Reporting of Catch per Unit Effort as a Monitoring Tool in a Bushmeat‐Harvesting System

Abstract: Growing threats to biodiversity in the tropics mean there is an increasing need for effective monitoring that balances scientific rigor with practical feasibility. Alternatives to professional techniques are emerging that are based on the involvement of local people. Such locally based monitoring methods may be more sustainable over time, allow greater spatial coverage and quicker management decisions, lead to increased compliance, and help encourage attitude shifts toward more environmentally sustainable practices. Nevertheless, few studies have yet compared the findings or cost‐effectiveness of locally based methods with professional techniques or investigated the power of locally based methods to detect trends. We gathered data on bushmeat‐hunting catch and effort using a professional technique (accompanying hunters on hunting trips) and two locally based methods in which data were collected by hunters (hunting camp diaries and weekly hunter interviews) in a 15‐month study in Equatorial Guinea. Catch and effort results from locally based methods were strongly correlated with those of the professional technique and the spatial locations of hunting trips reported in the locally based methods accurately reflected those recorded with the professional technique. We used power simulations of catch and effort data to show that locally based methods can reliably detect meaningful levels of change (20% change with 80% power at significance level [α]= 0.05) in multispecies catch per unit effort. Locally based methods were the most cost‐effective for monitoring. Hunter interviews collected catch and effort data on 240% more hunts per person hour and 94% more hunts per unit cost, spent on monitoring, than the professional technique. Our results suggest that locally based monitoring can offer an accurate, cost‐effective, and sufficiently powerful method to monitor the status of natural resources. To establish such a system in Equatorial Guinea, the current lack of national and local capacity for monitoring and management must be addressed.     

Leaching,mobility and persistence of tebufenozide in columns packed with forest litter and soil

Abstract

Leaching, downward mobility and persistence of tebufenozide was investigated under laboratory conditions in columns packed with forest litter and soil, after fortification with the analytical grade material (purity > 99.6%) and with two commercial formulations, RH‐5992 2F (aqueous flowable) and RH‐5992 ES (emulsion suspension). Two types of litter and soil were used: one type with relatively high amounts of sand and the other with high amounts of clay.

The concentrations eluted in the leachates were lower when the analytical material (dissolved in acetone) was used for fortification, than when the two formulations (diluted with water) were used. The amount leached was higher for RH‐5992 2F than for RH‐5992 ES. The type of substrate, i.e., sandy or clay type, had only marginal influence on the amounts eluted in the leachates. Downward movement of tebufenozide from the top 2‐cm layer to the untreated middle and bottom layers (3‐cm segments) was consistently lower when the analytical material was used for fortification, than when the two formulations were used. Downward movement was higher for RH‐5992 2F than for RH‐5992 ES. Persistence of tebufenozide in substrates, maintained under submerged conditions for 70 days after leaching, indicated an initial 2‐week lag period prior to the onset of degradation. Formulation‐related differences were observed in the half‐life (DT₅₀) values. When the analytical material was used for fortification, the DT₅₀ ranged from ca 54 to 59 d. However, when the formulations were used for fortification, the DT₅₀ showed a higher range, i.e., from ca 62 to 67 d for RH‐5992 2F and ca 70 to 80 d for RH‐5992 ES. Formulation ingredients appear to have caused enhanced adsorption of tebufenozide onto the substrates, thus delaying degradation.     

Canopy Seed Banks as Time Capsules of Biodiversity in Pasture-Remnant Tree Crowns

Abstract: Tropical pastures present multiple barriers to tree regeneration and restoration. Relict trees serve as “regeneration foci” because they ameliorate the soil microclimate and serve as safe spots for dispersers. Here, we describe another mechanism by which remnant trees may facilitate pasture regeneration: the presence of seed banks in the canopy soil that accumulates from decomposing epiphytes within the crowns of mature remnant trees in tropical cloud forest pastures. We compared seed banks of canopy soils (histosols derived from fallen leaves, fruits, flower, and twigs of host trees and epiphytes, dead bryophytes, bark, detritus, dead animals, and microorganisms, and dust that accumulate on trunks and the upper surfaces of large branches) in pastures, canopy soils in primary forest trees, and soil on the forest floor in Monteverde, Costa Rica. There were 5211 epiphytic and terrestrial plant seeds in the three habitats. All habitats were dominated by seeds in a relatively small number of plant families, most of which were primarily woody, animal pollinated, and animal dispersed. The density of seeds on the forest floor was greater than seed density in either pasture‐canopy or forest‐canopy soils; the latter two did not differ. Eight species in 44 families and 61 genera from all of the habitats were tallied. There were 37 species in the pasture‐canopy soil, 33 in the forest‐canopy soil, and 57 on the forest floor. Eleven species were common to all habitats. The mean species richness in the pasture canopy was significantly higher than the forest canopy (F =83.38; p < 0.02). Nonmetric multidimensional scaling ordination revealed that the communities were distinct. Greenhouse experiments verified that many of these seeds were viable, with 29 taxa germinating (23 taxa in pruned mats [mimic of exposed conditions] and 16 taxa in control mats [intact conditions]) within 2 months of observation. Nearly half the species that germinated were characteristic of primary forests (primary forest samples, 19%; pasture samples, 29%). This supports the idea that canopy seed banks of pasture trees can function as time capsules by providing propagules that are removed in both space and time from the primary forest. Their presence may enhance the ability of pastures to regenerate more quickly, reinforcing the importance of trees in agricultural settings.