Mark-recapture estimators for dual frame population size of prominent nesting structures: the effect of uncertain detection probability

The combined mark-recapture and line transect sampling methodology proposed by Alpizar-Jara and Pollock [Journal of Environmental and Ecological Statistics, 3(4), 311–327, 1996; In Marine Mammal Survey and Assessment Methods Symposium. G.W. Garner, S.C. Amstrup, J.L. Laake, B.F.J. Manly, L.L. McDonald, and D.C. Robertson (Eds.), A.A. Balkema, Rotterdam, Netherlands, pp. 99–114, 1999] is used to illustrate the estimation of population size for populations with prominent nesting structures (i.e., bald eagle nests). In the context of a bald eagle population, the number of nests in a list frame corresponds to a pre-marked sample of nests, and an area frame corresponds to a set of transect strips that could be regularly monitored. Unlike previous methods based on dual frame methodology using the screening estimator [Haines and Pollock (Journal of Environmental and Ecological Statistics, 5, 245–256, 1998a; Survey Methodology, 24(1), 79–88, 1998b)], we no longer need to assume that the area frame is complete (i.e., all the nests in the sampled sites do not need to be seen). One may use line transect sampling to estimate the probability of detection in a sampled area. Combining information from list and area frames provides more efficient estimators than those obtained by using data from only one frame. We derive an estimator for detection probability and generalize the screening estimator. A simulation study is carried out to compare the performance of the Chapman modification of the Lincoln–Petersen estimator to the screening estimator. Simulation results show that although the Chapman estimator is generally less precise than the screening estimator, the latter can be severely biased in presence of uncertain detection. The screening estimator outperforms the Chapman estimator in terms of mean squared error when detection probability is near 1 wheareas the Chapman estimator outperforms the screening estimator when detection probability is lower than a certain threshold value depending on particular scenarios.     

盘式曝气器的结构优化设计

盘式曝气器是目前城市污水处理厂主要采用的曝气设备之一.但目前盘式曝气器存在充氧能力低、阻力损失大、使用寿命短等技术问题,增加了城市污水处理厂运行成本,降低了运行效能.针对这些问题,对盘式曝气器进行了结构优化设计.通过结构优化,既改善了曝气器的抗撕裂性和自闭性,同时又提高了充氧能力,降低了曝气阻力损失.     

浅析化学事故应急响应专线的发展

纵观国外同类化学事故应急咨询机构30多年的发展经验,结合化学事故应急响应专线的现状,提出了扩大化学事故应急响应专线的服务范围、加强化学事故技术支持体系的建设及加强与国内外同类机构的交流与合作等发展建议。     

上海南区污水输送干线世博期间排水安全保障

上海世界博览会将于2010年5月至10月召开,会展期跨越上海市夏季主汛期。届时如何保障世博园区的排水安全和水质安全,对接纳园区污水的已建干线排水系统是一个极大的考验。通过建立上海市南干线排水管网系统的数学水力集成模型,对世博园区污水接入后南干线的水力状态进行模拟,预测世博园区的排水风险,提出世博期间南干线的排水安全保障方案,为世博会期间的防洪保安奠定基础。     

HSE管理绩效考核在石油钻井企业的成功应用

本文浅析了HSE管理体系起源及其在我国的运行情况,提出了HSE管理绩效考核实施原则和实施办法,同时列举了HSE管理绩效考核在长城钻探工程有限公司井下作业公司的成功应用,并指出企业实施HSE管理绩效考核应注意的事项,可为企业有效控制员工行为安全、提高员工安全意识和技能、提升企业HSE管理水平提供参考.     

地铁沿线老旧房屋结构安全预警模型

为研究城市地铁沿线老旧房屋普遍存在结构安全问题,基于机器学习模型,选取房屋年份、楼层、面积等11个属性构建预警指标体系,采用SMOTE过采样、独热编码等方法解决样本离散化、不均衡的问题;利用KNN、Bayes、Logistic、SVM 4种机器学习模型对房屋结构安全数据学习并测试,综合应用Accuracy、F1、AP、...     

Clomazone dissipation, adsorption and translocation in four paddy topsoils

IntroductionClomazone,(2 [(2 chlorophenyl)methyl ] 4 ,4 dimethyl 3 isoxazolidinone) ,isasoil appliedisoxazolidinoneherbicideproducedbyFMCCorp .Itisintroducedforannualgrassandbroad spectrumweedsinsoybeans(Rani,1998;Vyas,2 0 0 0 ) .Itisalsocurrentlyregis…     

Identifying robust strategies for assisted migration in a competitive stochastic metacommunity

Assisted migration (AM) is the translocation of species beyond their historical range to locations that are expected to be more suitable under future climate change. However, a relocated population may fail to establish in its donor community if there is high uncertainty in decision-making, climate, and interactions with the recipient ecological community. To quantify the benefit to persistence and risk of establishment failure of AM under different management scenarios (e.g., choosing target species, proportion of population to relocate, and optimal location to relocate), we built a stochastic metacommunity model to simulate several species reproducing, dispersing, and competing on a temperature gradient as temperature increases over time. Without AM, the species were vulnerable to climate change when they had low population sizes, short dispersal, and strong poleward competition. When relocating species that exemplified these traits, AM increased the long-term persistence of the species most when relocating a fraction of the donor population, even if the remaining population was very small or rapidly declining. This suggests that leaving behind a fraction of the population could be a robust approach, allowing managers to repeat AM in case they move the species to the wrong place and at the wrong time, especially when it is difficult to identify a species’ optimal climate. We found that AM most benefitted species with low dispersal ability and least benefited species with narrow thermal tolerances, for which AM increased extinction risk on average. Although relocation did not affect the persistence of nontarget species in our simple competitive model, researchers will need to consider a more complete set of community interactions to comprehensively understand invasion potential.     

交通事故现场物证点线系列直角坐标测绘定位方法

为了研究满足交通事故现场记录图的技术性、证据性要求的交通事故现场测绘方 法,针对现有现场图定位方法的不足,重点从交通事故证据审查的视角,提出物证定位 观点,分析其技术构成并构建内容体系;在此基础上,依据技术标准基本要求,运用平面 坐标定位原理,以交通事故现场物证定位思想为基础,研究开发交通事故现场点线系列 直角坐标测绘定位方法及其具体应用技术。研究表明:物证定位是能够将现场元素定位 和现场道路定位协同考虑的一种交通事故现场物证固定技术,以其基本思想与原理可以 开发交通事故现场点线系列直角坐标测绘定位方法;该方法有多种变换方法可适用不同 情况的交通事故现场测绘;应用该方法绘制的现场记录图,可以满足现场记录图技术性 及证据性的双重要求。     

小麦根系菲与磷吸收及转运的相互作用

作物根系对多环芳烃(PAHs)与磷吸收及转运之间的相互作用研究对农产品的安全生产和PAHs污染环境植物修复的强化具有重要意义。为此,本文以菲为PAHs的代表,采用水培试验研究了不同磷、菲水平下小麦根系菲、磷吸收及其转运的效果,旨在揭示植物根系吸收PAHs与磷素的相互作用。结果表明,在0~1 200μmol·L~(-1)磷浓度范围内,小麦根系、茎叶菲含量在低磷浓度(10μmol·L~(-1))时最高,分别为36.87 mg·kg~(-1)和2.07 mg·kg~(-1);磷含量总体呈现随磷处理浓度的升高而增大的趋势;成对数据t-检验显示无论加菲与否,根系、茎叶磷含量无显著性差异(P0.05)。磷可促进菲从根部向地上部转运,而菲对磷转运没有显著性影响。在低磷浓度下(10μmol·L~(-1)),随着菲浓度的升高,小麦根系、茎叶菲含量呈现显著升高趋势(P0.05)。磷、菲共存处理介质pH升高幅度大于单一处理。