太湖梅梁湾富营养化相关问题探讨

太湖水体富营养化问题已严重威胁着太湖流域社会经济发展,特别是梅梁湾湖区尤为严重。以实测资料为基础,分析了太湖富营养化的环境影响因子,得出以下结论：磷为梅梁湾湖区主要的限制性因子;光照、水温为该区富营养化重要影响因素,但不是主要的限制性因子。CODMa与富营养化关系密切,但需进一步探讨其影响实质。     

爆炸荷载作用下钢筋混凝土防爆墙动力响应研究

为了研究钢筋混凝土防爆墙的抗爆能力,采用有限元分析方法对不同纵向配筋率、不同高跨比、不同厚度的墙体在爆炸动态荷载作用下的动力响应进行研究,对各种不同设置的钢筋混凝土防爆墙的抗爆性能进行评估。结果表明:减小高跨比对提高钢筋混凝土防爆墙的抗爆能力最为重要,提高纵向配筋率,增加厚度都能增加防爆墙的抗爆能力。     

The effect of barriers on reducing thermal heat fluxes from a hydrocarbon pool fire

The radiant heat flux from a pool fire is frequently calculated using the solid flame model, where the flame envelope is approximated as a stationary cylinder whose surface emits thermal radiation at a constant rate. Radiant heat flux calculations using the solid flame model assume the target to be at a given elevation, typically at ground level, and to have an unobstructed view of the fire. The presence of obstacles (e.g., walls, buildings, etc.) or terrain features that would create shaded areas and provide shielding of a target from the fire is typically neglected in these calculations: this is a conservative approach, but it is not accurate. This paper presents a methodology to utilize the solid flame model to calculate the heat flux to a target while taking into account the presence of an obstruction between the target and the fire. The shielded solid flame method can quantitatively account for the presence of obstacles as a passive mitigation measure and allows project developers or designers to optimize their facility layout to meet safety requirements. The methodology presented in this paper uses the same correlations found in currently used solid flame models (e.g., LNGFIRE3), therefore, it remains consistent with current regulatory requirements for LNG facilities in the U.S.     

Idiosyncratic deals in contemporary organizations: A qualitative and meta‐analytical review

Idiosyncratic deals (i‐deals) research focuses on the emergence of customized work arrangements employees negotiate with their employers. This article provides a critical review and synthesis of i‐deals research, combining a qualitative review of i‐deals theory and research with a supplementary meta‐analysis of 23 empirical studies (k = 27 samples, N = 8110 individuals). The qualitative review examines the conceptualization and measurement of i‐deals and identifies patterns and gaps in i‐deals research, while the quantitative meta‐analysis tests the moderating effect of societal cultures on the predictors and consequences of ideals investigated to date. In each section, attention is given to strengths and weaknesses of current approaches to i‐deals theory and research. Future research directions are identified with particular emphasis on the largely unexamined role of i‐deals from a multilevel perspective. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Occupational risks and the value and modelling of a measurement of severity

In studies of occupational risks, severity, which is a component of the estimation of every risk, appears as a multifaceted entity assessable according to numerous criteria. A method of measuring the degree of severity of the consequences of potentially dangerous events would be of undeniable value to organisations seeking to improve their understanding of the complexity of such events. The need to control severity is highlighted by scientifically acquired improvements in the understanding of occupational risks, by certain new regulatory obligations in Europe, and by some requirements in the financial management of organisations. We put forward a statistical way of integrating several constituent elements of severity and hence of determining a relevant, synthetic, one-dimensional index. This is achieved by means of principal component analysis (PCA), which is used here to calculate a resultant severity, as in some physical measurements. We also investigate how severity may be statistically modelled, with the aim of contributing to the quantitative assessment of occupational risks. The choice of parametric models is detailed and illustrated by the search for a suitable model for workplace accidents in an organisational setting. The practical value of modelling severity is two-fold. First, one is able to study the distribution of the numerical values of severity over a continuum (a theoretically infinite numerical set) rather than through a limited number of arbitrarily defined categories. Second, with a generally applicable parametric model, one can estimate the law of probability of a measurement of severity in a particular situation, notably recent or new. Lastly, the statistical concept of risk curve is defined and discussed. The goal is to incorporate the severity component into the risk assessment in the form of a probability law, thus circumventing the difficulties associated with an analysis of scenarios.     

基于多因素分析的玻璃行业员工不安全行为研究

采用问卷调查、信效度分析和因子分析等方法,研究玻璃行业不安全行为影响因素,研究结果表明：玻璃行业员工不安全行为主要包括车间照明、PPE佩戴等18个影响因素指标;根据方差分析结果将影响因素归结为工作环境与行为要求（F₁）、安全教育与培训（F₂）、群体与组织行为影响（F₃）和激励沟通与奖惩（F₄）等4个主因子,其方差解释率分别为32%、12%、10%、10%,权重分别为0.51、0.19、0.15、0.15;根据分析结果针对性提出“4+1”安全管理模式,为玻璃行业降低不安全行为几率、保障安全生产提供理论依据。     

Impacts of the Rising Opportunity Cost of Farm Labor on Agricultural Land Use Structure: Theory and Empirical Evidences

Abstract

Nowadays the rising of opportunity cost of farm labor comes to the forefront of attention in China. In order to understand its impact on agricultural land-use structure, a theoretical framework of household economics is formulated drawn on Low’s model. Under the theoretical framework, the impact of the rising opportunity cost of on-farm on cropping structure is deduced in theory. And then, using statistic and survey data, taking mountain area of southern Ningxia as an example, the theoretical assumes are verified. The results show that the rise of opportunity cost of farm labor leads to less diversified cropping structure.     

南京地区农业资源的综合评价研究

客观、准确地评价地区农业资源,对于农业资源的开发和利用具有重要意义。本文从系统论观点出发,将地区农业资源分成自然资源和社会资源,在能够较好地反映系统结构特征、不同样点差异及满足易于收集、便于数量表示和定量处理等基本要求的基础上,选择了若干评价指标。利用综合指数法、区位商法等评价方法,对南京地区的主要农业资源（土地资源、气候资源与社会资源）进行了定量分析,并在此基础上,利用资源优势度分析法进行了综合评价。结果表明,南部小区的农业资源具有整体优势,南部和中部的资源利用较为合理,北部小区则具有较为丰富的后备资源。最后,根据各地资源要素的不同组合,简要给出了较适宜的开发途径,为该地农业资源的进一步开发与利用提供了依据。     

产业园区碳排放核算方法研究

产业园区是一个协同实现经济效益和环境效益的重要单元,同时也是重点碳排放源,其转型和发展对实现国家和地区的低碳战略起到关键作用。碳排放核算方法影响园区碳排放水平的评估,是制定有效碳减排策略的基础。产业园区碳排放核算需要明确核算对象、核算结果表征和核算范围。本研究首先界定核算对象,辨析"二氧化碳量"与"二氧化碳当量"两种表征方式,认为二氧化碳量可以反映产业园区能源结构,而二氧化碳当量则能够量化园区的不同排放过程和环境效应。同时,从价值链角度出发,将园区碳排放核算划分为三个Scope,分别反映园区直接排放和上下游关联企业的间接排放。然后,从排放活动和部门关联出发,分析三种典型碳排放核算方法(清单分析法、投入产出分析和生态网络分析),进一步划分为流量分析模式和结构分析模式。流量分析模式主要从排放量角度对园区内部及其上下游产业链相关的碳排放活动进行核算;结构分析模式则聚焦园区相关碳排放部门和价值链的组织形式,从投入产出或者网络关联角度开展分析。研究发现清单分析法可以自下而上量化产业园区碳排放活动的流量,投入产出法则自上而下揭示碳排放单元的直接和间接流量以及平行结构,而生态网络分析则采用混合式核算模式刻画碳排放单元之间的网状关联结构。最后,本研究初步提出了产业园区碳排放核算方法的研究框架,力求提高排放因子精度,改进核算模式和建立动态核算模型,对碳排放总量和结构进行预测,从而实现产业园区的低碳发展。     

地方政府土地出让策略互动行为的检验及其影响分析

本文以山东省设区市地方政府土地出让行为作为研究对象,通过构建空间面板模型,从价格和数量两个维度,全面检验了地方政府商服、住宅、工业用地出让的策略互动行为,并利用空间计量工具,分析了地方政府土地出让策略互动行为的影响。研究发现:(1)山东省内地方政府商服、住宅、工业用地出让价格以及工业用地出让量存在显著的策略互动,地方政府的商服、住宅、工业用地出让价格以及工业用地出让量,不仅会受城市自身情况的约束,还会受邻近地区地方政府土地出让行为的影响,外在表现为你涨我跌、你增我减的反向变动格局;(2)由于未考虑策略互动,传统计量经济学非空间面板模型对地方政府土地出让行为影响因素的估计普遍存在偏误。对于商服用地出让价格,第三产业比重、人口密度的影响分别被低估了33.33%、13.08%;对于住宅用地出让价格,人口城镇化率、人均可支配收入的影响分别被低估了20.00%、9.98%,人口密度的影响被高估了32.34%;对于工业用地出让价格,人均外商直接投资的影响被高估了3.68%;对于工业用地出让量,第二产业比重、地均工业产值的影响分别被高估了13.95%、31.36%;(3)地方政府土地出让行为的影响因素普遍存在明显的空间溢出效应。对于商服用地出让价格,具有空间溢出效应的影响因素为人口密度;对于住宅用地出让价格,具有空间溢出效应的影响因素为人口城镇化率、人口密度、人均可支配收入;对于工业用地出让价格,具有空间溢出效应的影响因素为人均外商直接投资、地均固定资产投资;对于工业用地出让量,具有空间溢出效应的影响因素为第二产业比重、地均固定资产投资。