生产部门提高能源效率的宏观能耗回弹分析

提高能源效率已成为我国节能减排政策的重点,但是由于经济系统内在的调整机制作用,在宏观层面所能实现的节能效果可能不及微观技术层面能源效率提高的程度,甚至还会诱发更多的能源消耗,该现象被称为“宏观能耗回弹”效应.本文通过构建一个中国环境资源CGE模型,测算生产部门提高能源效率的宏观能耗回弹效应.结果显示,能源效率提高5％后,短期回弹效应为52.38％,节能效果仅达到技术层面预期的一半左右;长期回弹效应达178.61％,在高耗能部门竞争力提高、耗能产品出口扩张和经济增长的推动下,节能效果不但被完全抵消,总能耗还进一步增加.因此,生产部门提高能源效率在短期内确实能够降低我国能源消耗,但是由于回弹效应的存在,长期来看,在技术层面“产量相同投入更少”的努力反映到宏观经济层面则转变成“生产更多投入更多”,并且加剧了我国经济高耗能的偏好,提高能源效率所引发的产出增长和结构调整对能耗增加的刺激作用可能最终会抵消或者超过提高能源效率的节能效果.     

不同密度螺-草结构对养殖尾水净化效果的比较研究

为减少水产养殖污染物排放,以苦草为对照组,构建环棱螺螺 草生态系统净化池塘养殖尾水,比较不同密度螺 草结构对养殖尾水的净化效果,同时探讨螺草互作对水质的影响。结果表明不同密度螺 草组合对养殖尾水均有较好的净化效果,以中密度组（螺密度50 ind/m3）的去除效果最优,25 d对Chl a、CODMn、TN、TP、NH4+ N、NO3- N和浊度的去除率分别达到98%、39.7%、44.2%、86.9%、58.2%、82.3%和91%,其中以17~25 d的营养物质去除率最高,水质由原来的Ⅳ类、Ⅴ类水提升为Ⅲ类水;环棱螺 苦草互作对水体的净化效果与苦草对照组差异不显著,表明其互利关系不明显;环棱螺 苦草组合对CODMn和TN的去除效果不是很理想,可能是由于实验中以黄土为底泥,其中的异养微生物较少引起的     

Within season and carry-over effects following exposure of grassland species mixtures to increasing background ozone

Few studies have investigated effects of increased background ozone in the absence of episodic peaks, despite a predicted increase throughout the northern hemisphere over the coming decades. In this study Leontodon hispidus was grown with Anthoxanthum odoratum or Dactylis glomerata and exposed in the UK to one of eight background ozone concentrations for 20 weeks in solardomes. Seasonal mean ozone concentrations ranged from 21.4 to 102.5 ppb. Ozone-induced senescence of L. hispidus was enhanced when grown with the more open canopy of A. odoratum compared to the denser growing D. glomerata. There was increased cover with increasing ozone exposure for both A. odoratum and D. glomerata, which resulted in an increase in the grass:Leontodon cover ratio in both community types. Carry-over effects of the ozone exposure were observed, including delayed winter die-back of L. hispidus and acceleration in the progression from flowers to seed-heads in the year following ozone exposure.     

Trade-offs between elimination and detoxification in rainbow trout and common bivalve molluscs exposed to metal stressors

The purpose of this paper was to examine trade-offs between elimination and detoxification in rainbow trout and three common bivalve molluscs (clam, oyster, and scallop) exposed to cadmium (Cd), copper (Cu), and zinc (Zn) based on recent reported experimental data. We incorporated metal influx threshold with subcellular partitioning to estimate rate constants of detoxification (k_d) and elimination (k₂). We found that the relationships between k₂ and k_d were negative for rainbow trout and positive for bivalve molluscs. However, the relationships between k_d and % metal in metabolically detoxified pool were found positive for rainbow trout and negative for bivalve molluscs. Our results also indicated that rainbow trout had higher accumulation (∼60-90%) in metabolically active pool when exposed to essential metals of Cu and Zn and had only 10-50% accumulation in response to non-essential metal of Cd. Based on a cluster analysis, this study indicated that similarity of physiological regulations among study species was found between Cd and Zn. Our study suggested that detoxification can be predicted by an elimination-detoxification scheme with the known elimination rate constant. We concluded that quantification of trade-offs between subcellular partitioning and detoxification provides valuable insights into the ecotoxicology of aquatic organisms and enhances our understanding of the subcellular biology of trace metals.     

Mobility of Cd and Cu in formulated sediments coated with iron hydroxides and/or humic acids: a DGT and DGT-PROFS modeling approach

The diffusive gradients technique in thin films (DGT) was used to investigate the kinetic resupply of Cd and Cu to pore water from the solid phase. For the sake of simplification, experiments were performed using formulated sediments that differed in the presence or absence of humic acids (HA) and/or of iron hydroxides (i.e., goethite and ferrihydrite). The effects of the time after the contamination of the solid phase (aging effect) on formulated sediments that were coated with goethite and HA and spiked with Cd were also evaluated. Kinetic DGT results were interpreted using the newly developed, multi-compartmental model DGT-PROFS.Due to Cu humate formation, the addition of HA slightly increased the Cu concentration in the pore water independent of the effect of the iron hydroxide coating on the formulated sediments and slightly decreased that of Cd. The impact of 8-190 d of aging resulted in a significant decrease in the Cd concentration of the pore water over an increasing incubation time.Modeling our results with DGT-PROFS led to the following conclusions concerning the impact of HA and iron hydroxides on Cd and Cu availability. First, in the presence of HA and absence of iron hydroxides, Cd is associated mainly with weak sites, while Cu is bound to strong sites. Similarly, in the presence of both iron hydroxides and HA, Cu appeared to be more heavily associated with the strong sites than did Cd. When the incubation time increased from 8 to 190 d, a proportion of Cd initially adsorbed onto weak sites transferred to the strong sites, suggesting that the adsorption of Cd on sediments is controlled partially by slow kinetic processes.     

The effects of scale and spatial heterogeneities on diffusion in volcanic breccias and basalts: Amchitka Island, Alaska

Knowledge of the factors that influence the diffusion of contaminants, such as the diffusivity and the connected porosity, is crucial to modeling the long-term fate and transport of contaminants in subsurface systems with small or negligible advective flow, such as in fractured crystalline rock. Fractured rock is naturally heterogeneous, and hence, understanding the diffusivity of a molecule through this material (or the formation factor of the medium) becomes a complex problem, with critical concerns about the scale of laboratory measurements and about the spatial variability of these measurements relative to the scale needed for fate and transport modeling. This study employed both electrical and tracer-based laboratory methods to investigate the effects of scale and pore system connectivity on the diffusivity for volcanic matrix rock derived from the study site, a former underground nuclear test site at Amchitka Island, Alaska. The results of these investigations indicate a relatively well-connected pore system with scale effects generally limited to approximately 6 cm lengths and well-correlated to observed heterogeneous features. An important conclusion resulting from this study, however, is that there is a potential for the estimated diffusivity to be misrepresented by an order of magnitude if multiple samples or longer sample lengths are not used. Given the relatively large number of measurements resulting from these investigations, an analysis of the probability density function (PDF) of the diffusivity was possible. The PDF of the diffusivity was shown to generally follow a normal distribution for individual geologic layers. However, when all of the geologic layers are considered together, the distribution of the subsurface as a whole was shown to follow a lognormal distribution due to the order of magnitude differences amongst the layers. An understanding of these distributions is essential for future stochastic modeling efforts.     

Have government regulations improved workplace safety? : A test of the asynchronous regulatory effects in China's coal industry, 1995-2006

Problem

Empirical studies on the effectiveness of workplace safety regulations are inconclusive. This study hypothesizes that the asynchronous effects of safety regulations occur because regulations need time to become effective. Safety regulations will work initially by reducing the most serious accidents, and later by improving overall safety performance.

Method

The hypothesis is tested by studying a provincial level aggregate panel dataset for China's coal industry using two different models with different sets of dependent variables: a fixed-effects model on mortality rate, which is defined as fatalities per 1,000 employees; and a negative binominal model on the annual number (frequency) of disastrous accidents.

Results

Safety regulations can reduce the frequency of disastrous accidents, but have not reduced mortality rate, which represents overall safety performance.

Discussion and summary

Policy recommendations are made, including shifting production from small to large mines through industrial consolidation, improving the safety performance of large mines, addressing consequences of decentralization, and facilitating the implementation of regulations through carrying on institutional actions and supporting legislation.

Impact on industry

Until recently, about 4,000 coal miners perished annually in China, demonstrating that workplace safety in China's coal industry is an urgent and important issue. This research provides evidence that safety regulations have asynchronous effects and identifies the priorities in improving safety in China's current coal mining. This may assist the Chinese government to design more effective safety improvement policies and improve the effectiveness of safety regulations and safety performance.     

Elite cues,media coverage,and public concern: an integrated path analysis of public opinion on climate change, 2001–2013

To analyze the factors affecting US public concern about the threat of climate change between January 2002 and December 2013, data from 74 separate surveys are used to construct quarterly measures of public concern over global climate change. Five factors should account for changes in levels of concern: extreme weather events, public access to accurate scientific information, media coverage, elite cues, and movement/countermovement advocacy. Structural equation modeling indicates that elite cues, movement advocacy efforts, weather, and structural economic factors influence the level of public concern about climate change. While media coverage exerts an important influence, it is itself largely a function of elite cues and economic factors. Promulgation to the public of scientific information on climate change has no effect. Information-based science advocacy has had only a minor effect on public concern, while political mobilization by elites and advocacy groups is critical in influencing climate change concern.     

二元联合作用藻红外测试方法——以重金属为例

为检验二元联合作用藻红外测试方法的可行性,用Cu~(2+)、Fe3+、Mn~(2+)、Al3+、Cr3+、Hg~(2+)、Cd~(2+)、Pb~(2+)、Zn~(2+)进行了二元联合作用测试实验。结果显示:联合药液的参照浓度与单药液的参照浓度比为0.5:0.25的有15组二元组合,为2.0:1.0的有10组二元组合,为1.0:0.5的有11组二元组合;在9种重金属的36组二元联合作用测试结果中出现拮抗作用、相加作用、协同作用,表明联合作用类型表现出多样性;14组拮抗作用中单组的再现性为50%~100%、多组的再现性的出现率为93%、单组的重现性为67%~100%、多组的重现性的出现率为100%,21组相加作用中单组的再现性为50%~100%、多组的再现性的出现率为86%、单组的重现性为67%~100%、多组的重现性的出现率为100%,1组协同作用重现性67%;36组联合作用测试结果的再现性为50%~100%、再现性的出现率为86%,重现性为67%~100%、重现性的出现率为100%。上述分析可知,9种重金属的36种二元联合作用测试结果具有较好的多样性、再现性、重现性,表明测试条件、藻温测试方法、三指标评价法能够保证藻响应温差和藻响应药品评价结果的质量,参照浓度分析方法、联合作用评价方法能够控制联合作用分析结果的质量;藻响应的有毒有害物都存在敏感浓度,用参照浓度分析方法可分析出藻响应有毒有害物的参照浓度。因此,藻红外测试技术可以用于测试重金属、农药、有机药品、抗生素等的二元联合作用。     

Effects of dimethoate on rotifer Brachionus calyciflorus using multigeneration toxicity tests

As important members of the zooplankton community and sources of food for fish, rotifers are used extensively in ecotoxicological research to assess the health of the environment and safety of compounds. However, most rotifer toxicity tests are only conducted using rotifer neonates derived from unexposed mothers, thus ignoring the potential transfer of contaminants from mother to offspring. To understand better the mother to offspring exposure, a multigenerational study was conducted using three successive generations (F₀, F₁ and F₂) of the common freshwater rotifer Brachionus calyciflorus to investigate the toxic effects of the widely used organophosphate pesticide, dimethoate (O, O-dimethyl S-methylcarbamoylmethyl phosphorodithioate). When the F₀ generation was exposed to five pesticide concentrations, the population growth rate (r) displayed symptoms of hormesis, characterized by the conversion of low-concentration stimulation to high-concentration inhibition. Despite this observation, the exposure to any given concentration of dimethoate reduced the population growth rates of the F₁ and F₂ generation rotifers. Significant differences existed between the F₀, F₁ and F₂ rotifers for the population growth rate under dimethoate stress: F₂ individuals were more sensitive than F₁, whereas the F₁ individuals were more sensitive than F₀. The results indicated that the parental exposure to a given toxic stress could result in increased sensitivity and decreased fitness in the offspring. This study illustrates the utility of multigenerational toxicity tests, which may better reflect and more accurately predict the effects of long-term pesticide exposure to aquatic organisms at the population level.