Use of experimental ecosystems in regulatory decision making

Tiered testing for the effects of chemicals on aquatic ecosystems has begun to include tests at the ecosystem level as a component in pesticide regristration. Because such tests are expensive, regulators and industry need to know what additional information they can gain from such tests relative to the costs of the simpler single-species toxicity bioassays. Requirements for ecosystem-level testing have developed because resource managers have not fully understood the implications of potential damage to resources without having evaluations of the predicted impacts under field conditions. We review approaches taken in the use of experimental ecosystems, discuss benefits and limitations of small- and large-scale ecosystem tests, and point to correlative approaches between laboratory and field toxicity testing.Laboratory experimental ecosystems (microcosms) have been successfully used to measure contaminant bioavailability, to determine routes of uptake in moderately complex aquatic systems, and to isolate factors modifying contaminant uptake into the biota. Such factors cannot be as readily studied in outdoor experimental ecosystems because direct cause-and-effect relations are often confounded and difficult to isolate. However, laboratory tests can be designed to quantify the relations among three variables: known concentrations of Stressors; specific sublethal behavioral, biochemical, and physiological effects displayed by organisms; and responses that have been observed in ecosystem-level analyses. For regulatory purposes, the specificity of test results determines how widely they can be applied. Ecotoxicological research should be directed at attempts to identify instances where single-species testing would be the appropriate level of analysis for identifying critical ecological endpoints and for clarifying relationships between ecosystem structure and function, and where it would be inadequate for a given level of analysis.     

江苏省人口数据空间离散化研究及其精度分析

针对传统人口数据表达方法在表达人口空间分布上的不足,设计了人口数据离散化模型,通过分析人口数据与土地覆被信息之间的关系,将分县统计的人口数据分配到空间1 km×1 km栅格单元上。在江苏省的研究表明,利用该方法能获得比较高的精度。基于离散化后的人口数据,发现江苏省人口空间分布有两大特点：(1)人口分布自城市中心向城市外围由密集渐变为分散;(2)苏南的城市人口规模显著大于苏中和苏北,苏南、苏中、苏北三大区域的人口城镇化水平呈现由高到低排列。江苏省人口空间分布的上述特点与江苏省三大区域的经济发展状况及各个区域的城镇化水平相一致。离散化后生成的1 km×1 km栅格人口数据,能够精确表达人口分布的区域差异,可以作为制订资源开发、环境规划、区域发展战略等重要参考依据。     

Testing the validity of a critical sulfur and nitrogen load model in southern Ontario, Canada, using soil chemistry data from MARYP

The validity of a steady-state massbalance model (Arp et al., 1996; referred to asARP) was tested using physicochemical soil data fromthe Monitoring Acid Rain Youth Program (MARYP). FourARP sites were matched with ten MARYP sites accordingto proximity, bedrock type and subsoil pH to test thevalidity of the ARP model for critical loadexceedances. Soil solution pH, base concentration andAl concentration from MARYP sites, which were wellmatched to ARP sites, validated the modelled criticalload exceedances. Higher exceedance areas wereassociated with more acidic pH and lower base andhigher Al concentrations from matched MARYP sites andvice versa. One ARP site was inappropriately matchedwith MARYP sites and could not be validated using baseand Al concentrations. This study also confirmed thesouthern limit of the zero critical load exceedanceisopleth from the model. However, variability of theother exceedance isopleths was noted due to thelimited number of sites used in the model. Thevalidation of these sites in the ARP model and thezero critical load exceedance isopleth nonethelessallows greater confidence in using this model as amanagement tool for acidic deposition.     

Mesoscale ecohydrological modelling to analyse regional effects of climate change

Hydrological processes and crop growth were simulated for the state of Brandenburg (Germany) using the hydrological/vegetation/water quality model SWIM, which can be applied for mesoscale river basins or regions. Hydrological validation was carried out for three mesoscale river basins in the area. The crop growth module was validated regionally for winter wheat, winter barley and maize. After that the analysis of climate change impacts on hydrology and crop growth was performed, using a transient 1.5 K scenario of climate change for Brandenburg and restricting the crop spectrum to the three above mentioned crops. According to the scenario, precipitation is expected to increase. The impact study was done comparing simulation results for two scenario periods 2022–2030 and 2042–2050 with those for a reference period 1981–1992. The atmospheric CO₂ concentrations for the reference period and two scenario periods were set to 346, 406 and 436 ppm, respectively. Two different methods – an empirical one and a semi-mechanistic one – were used for adjustment of net photosynthesis to altered CO₂. With warming, the model simulates an increase of evapotranspiration (+9.5%, +15.4%) and runoff (+7.0%, +17.2%). The crop yield was only slightly altered under the climate change only scenario (no CO₂ fertilization effect) for barley and maize, and it was reduced for wheat (–6.2%, –10.3%). The impact of higher atmospheric CO₂ compensated for climate-related wheat yield losses, and resulted in an increased yield both for barley and maize compared to the reference scenario. The simulated combined effect of climate change and elevated CO₂ on crop yield was about 7% higher for the C₃ crops when the CO₂ and temperature interaction was ignored. The assumption that stomatal control of transpiration is taking place at the regional scale led to further increase in crop yield, which was larger for maize than for wheat and barley. The regional water balance was practically not affected by the partial stimulation of net photosynthesis due to higher CO₂, while the introduction of stomatal control of regional transpiration reduced evapotranspiration and enlarged notably runoff and ground water recharge.     

The OECD Validation Program of the H295R Steroidogenesis Assay for the Identification of In Vitro Inhibitors and Inducers of Testosterone and Estradiol Production. Phase 2: Inter-Laboratory Pre-Validation Studies (8 pp)

Background, Goals and Scope In response to concerns that have been raised about chemical substances that may alter the function of endocrine systems and result in adverse effects on human health, an OECD initiative was undertaken to develop and validate in vitro and in vivo assays to identify chemicals that may interfere with endocrine systems of vertebrates. Here we report on studies that were conducted to develop and standardize a cell-based screening assay using the H295R cell line to prioritize chemicals that may act on steroidogenic processes in humans and wildlife. These studies are currently ongoing as part of the ‘Special Activity on the Testing and Assessment of Endocrine Disruptors’ within the OECD Test Guidelines Program to review, develop, standardize, and validate a number of in vitro and in vivo toxicological assays for testing and assessment of chemicals concerning their potential to interact with the endocrine system of vertebrates. Study Design Six laboratories from five countries participated in the pre-validation studies. Each laboratory tested the effects of three model chemicals on the production of testosterone (T) and estradiol (E2) using the H295R Steroidogenesis Assay. Chemicals tested were well described inducers or inhibitors of steroidogenic pathways (forskolin, prochloraz and fadrozole). All experiments were conducted in 24 well plates following standard protocols. Six different doses per compound were analyzed in triplicate per plate. A quality control (QC) plate was run in conjunction with the chemical exposure plate to account for inter-assay variation. Each chemical exposure was conducted two or three times. Results All laboratories successfully detected increases and/or decreases in hormone production by H295R cells after exposure to the different model compounds and there was good agreement in the pattern of response for all groups. Forskolin increased both T and E2 while fadrozole and prochloraz decreased production of both hormones. All chemicals affected hormone production in a dose-dependent manner with the exception of fadrozole which caused maximum inhibition of E2 at the two least concentrations tested. Some inter-laboratory differences were noted in the alteration of hormone production measured in chemically exposed cells. However, with the exception of the production of T measured at one laboratory in cells exposed to forskolin, the EC₅₀s calculated were comparable (coefficients of variation 34–49%) for all hormones. Discussion and Perspectives The results indicated that the H295R Steroidogenesis Assay protocol was robust, transferable and reproducible among all laboratories. However, in several instances that were primarily related to one laboratory there were unexplained minor uncertainties related to the inter-laboratory hormone production variation. Based on the findings from this Phase 2 prevalidation study, the H295R Steroidogenesis Assay protocol is currently being refined. The next phase of the OECD validation program will test the refined protocol among the same group of laboratories using an extended set of chemicals (∼30) that will include positive and negative chemical controls as well as a broad spectrum of different potential inducers and inhibitors of steroidogenic pathways. Submission Editor: Dr. Carsten Brühl (bruehl@uni-landau.de)     

客舱玻璃抗螺旋桨甩冰冲击分析

目的 研究涡桨飞机客舱玻璃抗螺旋桨甩冰分析方法。方法 根据某型涡桨飞机螺旋桨结冰特性计算分析得到的冰块质量以及冰块轨迹,筛选出严重载荷工况。建立客舱玻璃有限元模型,采用有限元软件PAM-CRASH进行数值计算,获得结构破坏形态和动态响应。开展客舱玻璃甩冰冲击研发试验,将试验后结构损伤与数值分析结果进行对比分析。结果 两种确定冰块质量和冰块速度方法,可适用于结构防甩冰设计的不同阶段;根据结冰特性计算分析得到的冰块质量10.27 g、垂向速度141.1 m/s更为准确合理。不同冰型撞击各个结构部位,会对结构造成不同程度的损伤。同一长方体冰型下,入射截面积越小,玻璃损伤越严重;撞击玻璃不同部位时,角部比中心点更为严重。结论 试验结果与仿真结果基本一致,可以验证所给出的客舱玻璃分析模型及分析方法的准确性,可供螺旋桨甩冰区域的客舱玻璃设计参考。     

HYDROLOGIC SIMULATION OF THE LITTLE WASHITA RIVER EXPERIMENTAL WATERSHED USING SWAT1

ABSTRACT: Precipitation and streamflow data from three nested subwatersheds within the Little Washita River Experimental Watershed (LWREW) in southwestern Oklahoma were used to evaluate the capabilities of the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) to predict streamflow under varying climatic conditions. Eight years of precipitation and streamflow data were used to calibrate parameters in the model, and 15 years of data were used for model validation. SWAT was calibrated on the smallest and largest sub‐watersheds for a wetter than average period of record. The model was then validated on a third subwatershed for a range in climatic conditions that included dry, average, and wet periods. Calibration of the model involved a multistep approach. A preliminary calibration was conducted to estimate model parameters so that measured versus simulated yearly and monthly runoff were in agreement for the respective calibration periods. Model parameters were then fine tuned based on a visual inspection of daily hydrographs and flow frequency curves. Calibration on a daily basis resulted in higher baseflows and lower peak runoff rates than were obtained in the preliminary calibration. Test results show that once the model was calibrated for wet climatic conditions, it did a good job in predicting streamflow responses over wet, average, and dry climatic conditions selected for model validation. Monthly coefficients of efficiencies were 0.65, 0.86, and 0.45 for the dry, average, and wet validation periods, respectively. Results of this investigation indicate that once calibrated, SWAT is capable of providing adequate simulations for hydrologic investigations related to the impact of climate variations on water resources of the LWREW.     

空间站密封舱空气龄分布数值模拟及试验研究

介绍了空气龄理论,阐述了空气龄在空间站密封舱内空气品质评价方面的作用,对国内外在空间站密封舱内空气龄数值模拟、空气龄分布验证试验的研究进展进行了综述,并给出了对空间站密封舱进行空气龄数值模拟及试验研究的建议。     

火炸药企业重大事故隐患危险性评估的计算机自学习实现

通过对火炸药工厂重大事故隐患危险性评估方法的分析,以计算机自学习的基本结构为主线,详细探讨了以机械学习策略完成该评估程序中对新危险品源自学习的过程。对此过程中知识表示等几个应注意的问题进行了描述     

统计方法在污染场地修复验收评估中的应用

为合理评估污染场地修复验收结果,运用2种统计学方法——平行样t检验和UCL(置信上限)评估方法,对修复案例场地土壤样品的检测结果进行评估. 结果表明:采用传统的逐一对比方法,有8个采样点的w(As)和1个采样点的w(Hg)超过修复目标;平行样t检验法显示,这9个超标采样点中,S48采样点w(As)和S1采样点w(Hg)略微超过修复目标,是由采样与实验室误差引起,可视为已经达到修复效果;95%UCL评估方法结果则显示,w(As)和w(Hg)的95%UCL分别为23.81和5.83mg/kg,均小于对应的修复目标值,只有S26采样点w(As)大于修复目标值的2倍,可判定该场地土壤中除S26采样点w(As)外,其他均已达标. 研究说明:①运用适当的统计分析方法对修复效果进行评估,可节省不必要的修复成本;②传统的逐一对比方法适用于修复场地面积较小、采样数量有限的情况,平行样t检验则可剔除采样过程或实验室分析误差导致的超标值的影响;③95%UCL评估方法可从整体上判断场地修复效果,适合于修复面积较大、采样数量相对较多的情况,应用时注意95%UCL应小于修复目标值,污染物含量的最高检测值应不超过修复目标的2倍且不出现局部连续超标区域.