A guide to qualitative attribution methods for evaluation in conservation

Knowledge of what conservation interventions improve biodiversity outcomes, and in which circumstances, is imperative. Experimental and quasi-experimental methods are increasingly used to establish causal inference and build the evidence base on the effectiveness of interventions, but their ability to provide insight into how and under what conditions an intervention should be implemented to improve biodiversity outcomes faces limitations. A suite of attribution methods that leverage qualitative methods for causal inference is available but underutilized in conversation impact evaluation. This article provides a guide to 5 such qualitative attribution methods: contribution analysis, process tracing, realist evaluation, qualitative comparative analysis, and most significant change. It defines and introduces each method and then illustrates how they could be applied through a case study of community conservancies in Namibia. This guide provides examples of how qualitative attribution methods can advance knowledge of what works, in which contexts, and why in biodiversity conservation.     

统计方法在污染场地修复验收评估中的应用

为合理评估污染场地修复验收结果,运用2种统计学方法——平行样t检验和UCL(置信上限)评估方法,对修复案例场地土壤样品的检测结果进行评估. 结果表明:采用传统的逐一对比方法,有8个采样点的w(As)和1个采样点的w(Hg)超过修复目标;平行样t检验法显示,这9个超标采样点中,S48采样点w(As)和S1采样点w(Hg)略微超过修复目标,是由采样与实验室误差引起,可视为已经达到修复效果;95%UCL评估方法结果则显示,w(As)和w(Hg)的95%UCL分别为23.81和5.83mg/kg,均小于对应的修复目标值,只有S26采样点w(As)大于修复目标值的2倍,可判定该场地土壤中除S26采样点w(As)外,其他均已达标. 研究说明:①运用适当的统计分析方法对修复效果进行评估,可节省不必要的修复成本;②传统的逐一对比方法适用于修复场地面积较小、采样数量有限的情况,平行样t检验则可剔除采样过程或实验室分析误差导致的超标值的影响;③95%UCL评估方法可从整体上判断场地修复效果,适合于修复面积较大、采样数量相对较多的情况,应用时注意95%UCL应小于修复目标值,污染物含量的最高检测值应不超过修复目标的2倍且不出现局部连续超标区域.      

A population model for the peach fruit moth, Carposina sasakii Matsumura (Lepidoptera: Carposinidae), in a Korean orchard system

A population model for the peach fruit moth, Carposina sasakii Matsumura, was constructed to understand the population dynamics of this pest species and to develop an effective management strategy for various orchard (apple, peach, apple + peach) systems. The model was structured by the five developmental stages of C. sasakii: egg, larva, pupa, larval-cocoon (overwintering larva), and adult. The model consisted of a series of component models: (1) a bimodal spring adult emergence model, (2) an adult oviposition model, (3) stage emergence models of eggs, larvae, and pupae, (4) a larval survival rate model in fruits, (5) a larval-cocoon formation model, and (6) an insecticide effect model. Simulations using the model described the typical patterns of C. sasakii adult abundance in various orchard systems well, and was specific to the composition of host plants: three adult abundance peaks (first peak, mid-season peak, and last peak) a year with decreased peaks after the first peak in monoculture orchards of late apple, two adult peaks a year with a much higher last peak in monoculture orchards of early peach, and three adult peaks a year with much higher later peaks in mixed orchards of late apple and early peach. The average deviation between model outputs and actual records for first and second adult peak dates was 2.8 and 3.9 d, respectively, in simulations without an insecticide effect. The deviation decreased when insecticide effects were incorporated into the model. We also performed a sensitivity analysis of our model, and suggest possible applications of the model.     

A Simple Model for Urban Background Pollution

A simple urban background pollution model is presented. Contributions from the individual area sources, subdivided into a grid net of a resolution of 2km × 2km, are integrated along the wind direction path assuming linear dispersion with the distance to the receptor point. Horizontal dispersion is accounted for by averaging the calculated concentrations over a certain, wind speed dependent wind direction sector, centred on the average wind direction. Formation of the nitrogen dioxide due to oxidation of nitrogen monoxide by ozone is calculated using a simple chemical model based on assumption of a photochemical equilibrium on the time scale of the pollution transport across the city area. The rate of entrainment of fresh rural ozone is governed by this time scale. The model is suitable for calculations of urban background when the dominating source is the road traffic. For this source the emissions take place at ground level, and a good approximation is to treat the emissions as area sources, but with an initial vertical dispersion determined by the height of the buildings.     

OSPM - A Parameterised Street Pollution Model

For many practical applications, as e.g. in support of air pollution management, numerical models based on solution of the basic flow and dispersion equations are still too complex. Alternative are models that are basically parameterised semi-empirical models making use of a priori assumptions about the flow and dispersion conditions. However, these models must, be thoroughly tested and their performance and limitations carefully documented. The Danish Operational Street Pollution Model (OSPM) belongs to this category of parameterised models. In the OSPM, concentrations of exhaust gases are calculated using a combination of a plume model for the direct contribution and a box model for the recirculating part of the pollutants in the street. Parameterisation of flow and dispersion conditions in street canyons was deduced from extensive analysis of experimental data and model tests. Results of these tests were used to further improve the model performance, especially with regard to different street configurations and a variety of meteorological conditions.     

基于方法验证数据用Top-down方法评估测量不确定度

依据现有指南和规范,在分析方法标准验证实验和报告中,常常分别评估准确度和精密度。这容易导致以加标回收率表示的准确度数据缺乏良好精密度支持的现象。基于ISO 11352原理,首次提出在不增加实验室分析人员工作量的情况下,利用自上而下技术评估方法测量不确定度,即同时考虑准确度与精密度作为一个综合性指标评估方法性能。这是标准制修订时落实测量不确定度条文一条操作性强的技术路线。利用改进后的加标回收率计算结果评估方法准确度。5组方法验证实测数据表明,用测量不确定度这一综合性指标评估方法性能比分别用准确度和精密度指标更符合实际情况。他可引导实验室分析人员在设计和处理方法验证数据时,更加重视方法精密度。在修订HJ 168—2010时,建议增加测量不确定度这一综合性指标评估方法性能。     

Validation of an Invertebrate Community Index for Urban Streams for an Alabama Coastal Plains Watershed1

Abstract: The purpose of this study was to validate the application of an invertebrate community index (ICI) to assess the biological integrity of urban streams. Validation involved comparing chemical and habitat data to ICI scores from 20 urban streams and four least‐impacted streams in the Choctawhatchee and Pea River watersheds located in Southeast Alabama. Chemical and habitat data were collected to support whether the ICI accurately predicts the health of the streams. A significant difference between urban and least‐impacted ICI scores, habitat evaluation scores, chemical variables, taxa richness, and Shannon‐Wiener diversity were observed when urban sites were compared with least‐impacted sites using Mann‐Whitney U‐test. Urban sites having low ICI scores, low species richness and diversity, and poor habitat showed greater impairment than least‐impacted sites. Cluster analysis of macroinvertebrate assemblages indicated two clusters. Significant differences between clusters in habitat evaluations, chemical parameters, and ICI scores showed that some urban sites were more degraded than other urban sites in the study. Differentiation between least‐impacted and urban sites indicated that the ICI provided valid biotic assessments. Therefore, this study validated that the ICI is capable of predicting the biological integrity of urban streams in the Choctawhatchee and Pea River watersheds.     

安全仪表系统的开发与要求

综述安全仪表系统的发展过程;对其主要组成、特点以及其各自要求进行研讨;给出安全仪表系统开发的简化流程;探讨安全仪表系统的经济性分析和仪表选择方法;对安全仪表系统整体生命周期中的计划编制、设计、实施、运行、维护和确认等各阶段活动的关键要求进行了讨论和研究。该研究对安全仪表系统的深入理解有指导作用,并为安全仪表系统的分析、设计、实施、运行和维护等活动提供参考。     

不确定背景环境下车道检测技术的研究

针对不确定背景的交通环境,提出一种新的车道检测算法。确定道路路面的色彩范围,提取车道标线的色彩信息,消除光照强度变化对车道标线信息提取过程的影响;通过对比车辆与车道标线在大小、形状和运动模式3方面的差异排除车道中车辆对车道线检测的干扰;单帧图像的车道检测结果存储于车道一致性确认模块中,运用车道标志线一致性确认提高车道检测结果的准确性。试验结果表明,该方法能够有效地检测各种天气条件下车道区域以及解决车道遮挡问题。     

基于开源GIS的长江流域晴日辐射反演

以开源GIS软件GRASS为平台,首次通过辐射过程模型r.sun和编程语言Shell实现长江流域500 m分辨率的晴日辐射反演（包括直接辐射、散射辐射和反射辐射）,为了解长江流域辐射时空分布规律和相关宏观气候、生态建模奠定基础。结论如下：（1）精度验证表明,晴日辐射反演结果较理想;相关晴日指数的误差指标MPE、MAPE和RMSE分别为37%、75%和64%,r.sun模型可进一步用于中国其它区域;（2）长江流域晴日辐射年均日值为2424±245 MJ/(m2·d),其各组分差异显著,直接、散射、反射辐射分别占总辐射的842%、156%和02%;（3）晴日辐射空间分布梯度明显,沿三级地形阶梯向东辐射值及变异逐渐减小,海拔变化引起的大气衰减因素在决定晴日辐射分布时起重要作用;（4）晴日辐射季节分布不对称,月际变化总体呈倒“U”形分布;直接辐射和散射辐射变化趋势基本一致,但二者比例随大气浑浊度的变化波动剧烈。