石油加工业二氧化硫产排污系数验证研究——以济南某石化企业为例

确保主要行业主要污染物排放总量数据的准确性对制定总量减排和区域环境质量改善规划尤为重要.以济南某石化企业为例,对石油加工业常减压、催化裂化、延迟焦化、柴油加氢、硫磺回收等工艺二氧化硫产排污系数开展验证研究.将产排污系数与监测结果对比分析,发现该企业通过产排污系数计算的二氧化硫排放量远大于实际排放量.在此基础上,提出石油加工业二氧化硫产排污系数修订建议.     

Validation of a questionnaire about the perception of occupational biohazard in Spanish companies

Objectives. The aim of this work was to develop, validate and test a new questionnaire to assess the biological risk in workers with intentional or unintentional exposure to biological agents. Methods. A questionnaire including 34 questions was developed to study the perception of workers against occupational biohazard. Content Validity Index (CVI) and Content Validity Ratio (CVR) were calculated for the analysis of content validity. A pilot study was carried out with 60 workers from 17 companies performing analysis of Cronbach's α to assess the internal consistency or reliability. Results. A total of 518 workers from 51 Spanish companies in which there is exposure to biological agents participated in the study yielding a response rate of 90%. The final questionnaire obtained a Cronbach's α > 0.759 with a stable test–retest result. The questionnaire validation demonstrates that it could be used to evaluate the biological risks and help the prevention of occupational accidents and diseases. Discussion. This study has validated the need to evaluate worker's perception against occupational risks, as well as the application of prevention methods and protective equipment. It is a first step towards developing an occupational biohazards assessment method including all the requirements set by the European Health and Safety Strategy 2013–2020.     

大气扩散模型统计性确认评估

使用计算模型预测物理过程之前,必须对该计算模型进行论证,确认评估通过后才能用于物理状态和过程的计算和预测。讨论了基于数据统计属性的确认评估对面向大气扩散物理现象的计算模型之适用性;探究了模型评估工作的基本内容、关键概念和通用原则;给出了确认评估参数的定义、选择原则及示例;分析了评估度量指标的内涵和适用条件;探讨了可接受模型需要满足的指标准则及统计性确认评估指标的选用;最后,指出了基于统计度量的确认评估方法的改进方向。扩散模型评估理论的探讨有助于提高基于模型仿真的大气扩散研究的准确性,也有利于高精度模型和基准试验的设计、开发与遴选。     

SWAT‐LUT: A Desktop Graphical User Interface for Updating Land Use in SWAT

Long‐term simulations of agricultural watersheds have often been done assuming constant land use over time, but this is not a realistic assumption for many agricultural regions. This paper presents the soil and water assessment tool (SWAT)‐Landuse Update Tool (LUT), a standalone, user‐friendly desktop‐based tool for updating land use in the SWAT model that allows users to process multi‐year land use data. SWAT‐LUT is compatible with several SWAT model interfaces, provides users with several options to easily prepare and incorporate land use changes (LUCs) over a simulation period, and allows users to incorporate past or emerging land use categories. Incorporation of LUCs is expected to provide realistic model parameterization and scenario simulations. SWAT‐LUT is a public domain interface written in Python programming language. Two applications at the Fort Cobb Reservoir Experimental Watershed located in Oklahoma and pertinent results are provided to demonstrate its use. Incorporating LUCs related to implementation of recommended conservation practices over the years reduced discharge, evapotranspiration, sediment, total nitrogen, and total phosphorus loads by 59%, 9%, 68%, 53%, and 88%, respectively. The user’s manual is included in this article as Supporting Information. The SWAT‐LUT executable file and an example SWAT project with three land use rasters and the user’s manual are available at the United States Department of Agriculture‐Agricultural Research Service Grazinglands Research Laboratory website under Software. Editor’s note : This paper is part of the featured series on Optimizing Ogallala Aquifer Water Use to Sustain Food Systems. See the February 2019 issue for the introduction and background to the series.     

Validation and application of an analytical method for determining pesticides in the gas phase of ambient air

A method for determining atmospheric concentrations of eight pesticides applied to corn and soybean crops in Mato Grosso state, Brazil is presented. The method involved a XAD-2 resin cartridge coupled to a low volume air pump at 2 L min^?1 over 8 hours. Pesticides were recovered from the resin using sonication with n-hexane:ethyl acetate and determined by GC-MS. Good accuracy (76–128%) and precision (CV < 20%) were obtained for atrazine, chlorpyrifos, alpha- and beta-endosulfan, endosulfan sulfate, flutriafol, malathion, metolachlor and permethrin. Method detection ranged from 9.0 to 17.9 ng m^?3. This method was applied to 61 gas phase samples collected between December 2008 and June 2009. Atrazine and endosulfan were detected both in urban and rural areas indicating the importance of atmospheric dispersion of pesticides in tropical areas. The simple and efficient extraction method and sampling system employed was considered suitable for identifying pesticides in areas of intense agricultural production.     

Agreement between predicted risk and prevalence of Down syndrome in first trimester nuchal translucency screening

The agreement between predicted risks of Down syndrome and observed prevalence was investigated in a population of 11 847 singleton pregnancies screened by first trimester nuchal translucency at a single institution. Twenty-seven cases of Down syndrome were observed; 20 were detected prenatally by nuchal translucency and maternal age screening, three by other means and four postnatally. The screened women were grouped according to their predicted risk of having an affected pregnancy, and this was compared with the observed prevalence. A significant correlation between predicted and observed prevalences was noted, thus demonstrating that risk estimates for Down syndrome based on first trimester nuchal translucency screening are accurate. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

基于Stacking集成学习模型的气态亚硝酸预测

建立了基于Stacking集成学习下气态亚硝酸（HONO）预测模型.利用非相干宽带腔增强吸收光谱（IBBCEAS）系统获得的北京城区HONO的浓度,结合HONO的来源,选取了O₃、CO、SO₂、NO、NO₂、NO_y、温度（T）、相对湿度（RH）、风速（WS）、j（HONO）、j（NO₂）、j（O¹D）作为特征数据,通过对HONO的平均日变化分析,将测量时间按小时转换为新特征.分别以极端梯度提升（XGBoost）、轻量化梯度促进机（LightGBM）以及随机森林（RF）算法构建基模型,采用5折交叉验证的方式划分训练集,将基模型输出的结果作为新特征集,并将新特征集作为第二层线性回归模型的输入,通过对这两层中的模型进行训练,最终得到Stacking集成学习HONO预测模型.通过对模型的特征重要度分析和计算夜间交通直接排放所占的贡献,表明CO是模型预测中重要的影响因子,说明机动车的直接排放是该区域冬季时期HONO的重要来源.利用测试集分别对单模型和融合后模型的预测性能进行评估,3个单模型的预测结果与测量值的相关系数都达到了0.91以上,其中Stacking融合后的模型性能最好,相关系数达到了0.94,平均绝对误差和均方根误差分别为0.307×10^-9和0.453×10^-9,结果表明基于Stacking集成学习方式下HONO预测模型的可解释性和推广性.     

浅谈军用飞机外挂系统机械环境适应性设计鉴定流程

为了建立外挂系统机械环境适应性设计及鉴定流程,通过梳理外挂系统在使用寿命周期中预期会遇到的机械环境约束条件,确定外挂系统设计需要研究完成的内容,包括技术要求制定、验证/分析方法、试验/评估结果评定等。详细阐述了机械环境适应性设计必要性,正向定量/定性设计方法以及机械环境鉴定试验流程需要考虑的内容。形成了外挂系统机械环境设计及鉴定流程。以某外挂系统机械环境适应性设计鉴定为例,验证了流程的有效性及经济性。     

快速路交通流异常数据判断算法研究及实证

对快速路交通流数据进行异常数据判断,有利于避免使用异常数据带来的损失,提高信息利用的有效性。笔者分别根据逻辑推理、交通流的重复性和连续性以及交通流变量之间的机理分析提出了3种判断快速路交通流异常数据的算法,并讨论了这3种算法之间的集成。利用北京快速路实测数据对算法进行了验证,验证结果表明该算法基本是有效的。     

Bayesian predictive inference for the proportion of eroded land in a small area in Iowa

There is an increasing interest in the quality of soil, especially for small geographical areas. We present a method to estimate the percent of the area in a county or hydrological basin that is eroded. There are sample data (for several counties in eastern Iowa) from the National Resources Inventory and population data on land use, land capability class, rainfall and slope length and steepness. Using the Gibbs sampler we perform Bayesian predictive inference to obtain estimates for the non-sampled units. These estimates, together with the sample data, provide an estimate of the proportion of the total area that is eroded. We assess the quality of fit of our model using two cross-validation exercises and graphical methods.