Spatial Calibration and Temporal Validation of Flow for Regional Scale Hydrologic Modeling1

Abstract: Physically based regional scale hydrologic modeling is gaining importance for planning and management of water resources. Calibration and validation of such regional scale model is necessary before applying it for scenario assessment. However, in most regional scale hydrologic modeling, flow validation is performed at the river basin outlet without accounting for spatial variations in hydrological parameters within the subunits. In this study, we calibrated the model to capture the spatial variations in runoff at subwatershed level to assure local water balance, and validated the streamflow at key gaging stations along the river to assure temporal variability. Ohio and Arkansas‐White‐Red River Basins of the United States were modeled using Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) for the period from 1961 to 1990. R² values of average annual runoff at subwatersheds were 0.78 and 0.99 for the Ohio and Arkansas Basins. Observed and simulated annual and monthly streamflow from 1961 to 1990 is used for temporal validation at the gages. R² values estimated were greater than 0.6. In summary, spatially distributed calibration at subwatersheds and temporal validation at the stream gages accounted for the spatial and temporal hydrological patterns reasonably well in the two river basins. This study highlights the importance of spatially distributed calibration and validation in large river basins.     

An enhanced environmental multimedia modeling system based on fuzzy-set approach: II. Model validation and application

Part I of this study develops an enhanced environmental multimedia modeling system (EMMS) based on fuzzy-set approach. Once the model development is complete, the composite module and the entire modeling system need to be tested and validated to ensure that the model can simulate natural phenomena with reasonable and reliable accuracy. The developed EMMS is first tested in a complete case study. And then verification results are conducted to compare with extensively researched literature data. In the third step, the data from an experimental landfill site is used for a pilot-scale validation. The comparisons between EMMS outputs and the literature data indicate that the EMMS can perform accurate modeling simulation. The modules of EMMS could support the entire environmental multimedia modeling system. Further field-scale validation is finished. The results are satisfactory. Most of the modeling yields closely match the monitoring data collected from sites. In addition, with the aid of fuzzy-set approach, EMMS can be a reliable and powerful tool to address the complex environmental multimedia pollution problems and provide an extensive support for decision makers in managing the contaminated environmental systems.     

某地铁多层车站的防排烟系统设计及模拟研究

在分析地铁车站火灾烟控和乘客疏散要求的基础上,分析了地铁防排烟设计的基本思路和模式,结合某多层结构地下车站,给出了通风排烟系统的设计方案。利用模拟仿真的方法对通风排烟系统火灾事故情况下的运行效果进行了验证评估。计算表明,隧道烟控流速、楼扶梯开口流速、可用安全疏散时间等指标均可达到规范的要求。提出的设计方案和事故运行模式可提供作为一种地下车站通风排烟系统设计的模式。     

有机污染物土壤吸附预测模型及其影响因素

以701种有机化合物的土壤吸附系数作为数据集,选取594种有机化合物作为训练集,剩余107种作为测试集.根据训练集化合物建立土壤吸附系数Koc与辛醇/水分配系数Kow的线性和非线性模型,应用平均残差(AE),平均绝对残差(AAE)和均方根误差(RMSE)来检验模型的预测能力,模型具有良好的预测能力.同时,比较不同类型的化合物的实测值与预测值,发现部分同系物的预测值与实测值存在系统的偏差,这些偏差主要是由吸附机理,溶解度,水解作用,挥发作用,实验误差等原因造成,这些因素均会对土壤吸附系数的预测产生影响.     

Modelling concentrations of airborne primary and secondary PM10 and PM2.5 with the BelEUROS-model in Belgium

The Eulerian Chemistry-Transport Model BelEUROS was used to calculate the concentrations of airborne PM₁₀ and PM_2.5 over Europe. Both primary as well as secondary particulate matter in the respirable size-range was taken into account. Especially PM_2.5 aerosols are often formed in the atmosphere from gaseous precursor compounds. Comprehensive computer codes for the calculation of gas phase chemical reactions and thermodynamic equilibria between compounds in the gas-phase and the particulate phase had been implemented into the BelEUROS-model. Calculated concentrations of PM₁₀ and PM_2.5 are compared to observations, including both the spatial and daily, temporal distribution of particulate matter in Belgium for certain monitoring locations and periods. The concentrations of the secondary compounds ammonium, nitrate and sulfate have also been compared to observed values. BelEUROS was found to reproduce the observed concentrations rather well. The model was applied to assess the contribution of emissions derived from the sector agriculture in Flanders, the northern part of Belgium, to PM₁₀- and PM_2.5-concentrations. The results demonstrate the importance of ammonia emissions in the formation of secondary particulate matter. Hence, future European emission abatement policy should consider more the role of ammonia in the formation of secondary particles.     

稻麦作物净初级生产力模型研究:模型检验与情景预测

利用我国若干代表性区域98组稻麦作物生产力的试验数据,对所建立的稻麦作物净初级生产力模型进行了检验.结果表明,该模型能根据常规的气象和土壤资料、化肥施用量等数据资料较好地模拟我国主要区域稻麦作物的净初级生产力.模拟值(y)与观测值(x)的线性关系为:y=1.05p-16.8(r²=0.771,p<0.001,n=98).对南京地区的情景预测结果表明:大气CO₂浓度升高促进稻麦作物的固碳能力;气温升高会降低水稻和小麦的碳固定,但对小麦的影响要小于水稻;在当前情景及未来情景(CO₂浓度为540μmol·mol^-1,温度增加1～4℃)下,氮肥施用对小麦碳固定的促进作用大于水稻,氮肥施用量高于150 kg·hm^-2时对2种作物的碳固定没有显著的促进作用,甚至降低水稻的净初级生产力.     

飞行器防空间静电放电设计和试验技术

结合某飞行器的特点,以及产品在轨飞行期间遭遇的空间静电放电(SESD)环境,研究了在没有可借鉴的条件下,如何通过分析提出大型天线及本体的空间静电放电防护设计目标,根据产品实际情况设计了分段实施的措施,运用等效理念设计了试验子样和测试方案,策划了设计元器件、原材料、天线系统、飞行器等不同层面的试验验证技术和方法.     

飞机整机级系统安全性评估方法探讨

为提高飞机整机级系统安全性评估效果,在明确整机级系统安全性评估思想的情况下,详细描述了整机级系统安全性分析和整机级系统安全性验证的流程;运用故障树分析法和故障模式与影响分析法研究了能够满足整机级系统安全性要求的评估方法和关键技术。实例表明:整机级严酷等级评估方法能够定性地防止颠覆性的逻辑错误;功能故障树可以对安全性指标进行精确的分配和计算;结合故障树和故障模式与影响分析法而形成的两阶段指标分配法提高了个别安全性指标数值,但仍符合安全性要求。     

Certification of Highly Complex Safety-Related Systems

The BIA has now 15 years of experience with the certification of complex electronic systems for safety-related applications in the machinery sector. Using the example of machining centres, this presentation will show the systematic procedure for verifying and validating control systems using Application Specific Integrated Circuits (ASICs) and microcomputers for safety functions.

One section will describe the control structure of machining centres with control systems using “ integrated safety.” A diverse redundant architecture combined with crossmonitoring and forced dynamisation is explained. In the main section the steps of the systematic certification procedure are explained showing some results of the certification of drilling machines. Specification reviews, design reviews with test case specification, statistical analysis, and walk-throughs are the analytical measures in the testing process. Systematic tests based on the test case specification, Electro Magnetic Interference (EMI) and environmental testing, and site acceptance tests on the machines are the testing measures for validation.

A complex software driven system is always undergoing modification. Most of the changes are not safety-relevant but this has to be proven. A systematic procedure for certifying software modifications is presented in the last section of the paper.     

Validation of a questionnaire about the perception of occupational biohazard in Spanish companies

Objectives. The aim of this work was to develop, validate and test a new questionnaire to assess the biological risk in workers with intentional or unintentional exposure to biological agents. Methods. A questionnaire including 34 questions was developed to study the perception of workers against occupational biohazard. Content Validity Index (CVI) and Content Validity Ratio (CVR) were calculated for the analysis of content validity. A pilot study was carried out with 60 workers from 17 companies performing analysis of Cronbach's α to assess the internal consistency or reliability. Results. A total of 518 workers from 51 Spanish companies in which there is exposure to biological agents participated in the study yielding a response rate of 90%. The final questionnaire obtained a Cronbach's α > 0.759 with a stable test–retest result. The questionnaire validation demonstrates that it could be used to evaluate the biological risks and help the prevention of occupational accidents and diseases. Discussion. This study has validated the need to evaluate worker's perception against occupational risks, as well as the application of prevention methods and protective equipment. It is a first step towards developing an occupational biohazards assessment method including all the requirements set by the European Health and Safety Strategy 2013–2020.