基于仿真原理的地震应急志愿者规模研究

中国是个地震多发但应对能力不强的国家,汶川地震再次暴露了中国专业地震应急救援力量不足的弊端。我们应该借鉴发达国家的经验,构建应急志愿者队伍,以提高我国的地震应急能力。根据仿真原理结合人力资源规模的确定方法,设计了地震应急救援系统仿真模型,并利用该模型计算了高校志愿者队伍的人数。该研究不但有助于丰富志愿者管理理论,同时能有效利用社会资源,提升我国地震应急救援能力,因此具有一定的理论和现实意义。     

Volunteers in Marine Conservation Monitoring: a Study of the Distribution of Seahorses Carried Out in Collaboration with Recreational Scuba Divers

Abstract:  Seahorses (  Hippocampus ) live in tropical and temperate waters. Habitat degradation and fishery overexploitation have led to drastic population declines on a global scale. Population monitoring is therefore essential to determine current status and manage conservation. In this first study in Italian waters on the geographic and ecological distribution of the two Mediterranean species, Hippocampus hippocampus and Hippocampus ramulosus , recreational scuba divers were recruited and trained to report sightings. A specially formulated questionnaire was produced and distributed to scuba diving schools and centers. In the 3-year study, 2536 divers spent 6077 diving hours gathering data and completed 8827 questionnaires. Eight percent of the questionnaires showed seahorse sightings, for a total of 3061 sighted specimens, 68% of which referred to Hippocampus ramulosus . The two species had overlapping geographic distributions. Seahorse abundance varied, with the northern Adriatic Sea showing greatest abundance, followed by the central-southern Tyrrhenian Sea. Seahorses were rare in the Ligurian and northern Tyrrhenian seas. Preferred habitats were shallow areas with either sandy bottoms or Posidonia oceanica (L.) Delile meadows. Seahorse distribution may be correlated with the degree of degradation of P. oceanica meadows. Resource users (the divers) were willing to take part in biological monitoring and contributed in scientific terms by collecting considerable amounts of data over short time periods and in economic terms by decreasing costs. The greatest limitation with volunteers was the difficulty in obtaining a uniformly distributed sample across time and space. We conclude that recreational divers and other resource users can play an active part in monitoring the marine environment and that the Mediterranean Hippocampus Mission may be used as a model for biodiversity monitoring.     

Evaluating environmental education,citizen science,and stewardship through naturalist programs

Amateur naturalists have played an important role in the study and conservation of nature since the 17th century. Today, naturalist groups make important contributions to bridge the gap between conservation science and practice around the world. We examined data from 2 regional naturalist programs to understand participant motivations, barriers, and perspectives as well as the actions they take to advance science, stewardship, and community engagement. These programs provide certification‐based natural history and conservation science training for adults that is followed by volunteer service in citizen science, education, and stewardship. Studies in California and Virginia include quantitative and qualitative evaluation data collected through pre‐ and postcourse surveys, interviews, and long‐term tracking of volunteer hours. Motivations of participants focused on learning about the local environment and plants and animals, connecting with nature, becoming certified, and spending time with people who have similar interests. Over half the participants surveyed were over 50 years old, two‐thirds were women, and a majority reported household incomes of over $50,000 (60% in California, 85% in Virginia), and <20% of those surveyed in both states described themselves as nonwhite. Thus, these programs need to improve participation by a wider spectrum of the public. We interviewed younger and underrepresented adults to examine barriers to participation in citizen science. The primary barrier was lack of time due to the need to work and focus on career advancement. Survey data revealed that participants’ ecological knowledge, scientific skills, and belief in their ability to address environmental issues increased after training. Documented conservation actions taken by the participants include invasive plant management, habitat restoration, and cleanups of natural areas and streams. Long‐term data from Virginia on volunteer hours dedicated to environmental citizen science show an increase from 14% in 2007 to 32% in 2014. In general, participants in the naturalist programs we examined increased their content knowledge about ecosystems, had greater confidence in conserving them, and continued to engage as citizen scientists after completing the program.     

The potential for citizen science to produce reliable and useful information in ecology

We examined features of citizen science that influence data quality, inferential power, and usefulness in ecology. As background context for our examination, we considered topics such as ecological sampling (probability based, purposive, opportunistic), linkage between sampling technique and statistical inference (design based, model based), and scientific paradigms (confirmatory, exploratory). We distinguished several types of citizen science investigations, from intensive research with rigorous protocols targeting clearly articulated questions to mass-participation internet-based projects with opportunistic data collection lacking sampling design, and examined overarching objectives, design, analysis, volunteer training, and performance. We identified key features that influence data quality: project objectives, design and analysis, and volunteer training and performance. Projects with good designs, trained volunteers, and professional oversight can meet statistical criteria to produce high-quality data with strong inferential power and therefore are well suited for ecological research objectives. Projects with opportunistic data collection, little or no sampling design, and minimal volunteer training are better suited for general objectives related to public education or data exploration because reliable statistical estimation can be difficult or impossible. In some cases, statistically robust analytical methods, external data, or both may increase the inferential power of certain opportunistically collected data. Ecological management, especially by government agencies, frequently requires data suitable for reliable inference. With standardized protocols, state-of-the-art analytical methods, and well-supervised programs, citizen science can make valuable contributions to conservation by increasing the scope of species monitoring efforts. Data quality can be improved by adhering to basic principles of data collection and analysis, designing studies to provide the data quality required, and including suitable statistical expertise, thereby strengthening the science aspect of citizen science and enhancing acceptance by the scientific community and decision makers.     

Women's invisible work in disaster contexts: gender norms in speech on women's work after a forest fire in Sweden

The aim of this study is to investigate what women do in disaster situations and how both men and women perceive and discuss the work of women. These patterns were evidenced in the stories that were told following the largest forest fire in the modern history of Sweden in July 2014. The study is based on 31 retrospective interviews with volunteers involved in combating the forest fire and concentrates on stories about the supportive work of women during this disaster. The results indicate that women were praised when they followed traditional norms but were denigrated when they performed what were viewed as male-coded tasks. The stories reveal norms concerning what a woman is and is not by focusing on women's age and clothing and by directly and indirectly questioning their abilities and authority. The norms are also rendered visible by the positive attention that women receive while describing doing what is expected of them.