北京市与香河县大气臭氧及氮氧化合物的变化特征

于2005年春、夏之交,在北京市及河北省香河县两地同时开展了臭氧和氮氧化合物的连续监测.结果表明,香河县和北京市的臭氧统计日变化形式基本一致,北京市大气臭氧平均浓度比香河低,分别为28×10-9V/V和43×10-9V/V;大气中0x浓度北京市高于香河县,分别为72×10-9V/V和60×10-9V/V.观测期间,两地臭氧的月最高值出现时间一致,其中6月21日北京市的臭氧浓度最高达到200×10-9V/V,香河县也达到149×10-9V/V.在三次臭氧严重超标事件发生的前一天,两地都伴随有氮氧化合物的高浓度积累;南风时北京市和香河县的Ox浓度都比平均值高25%.     

A comparative study of prognostic MM5 meteorological modeling with aircraft, wind profiler, lidar, tethered balloon and RASS data over Philadelphia during a 1999 summer episode

This study presents a comparative evaluation of the prognostic meteorological Fifth Generation NCAR Pennsylvania State University Mesoscale Model (MM5) using data from the Northeast Oxidant and Particle Study (NE-OPS) research program collected over Philadelphia, PA during a summer episode in 1999. A set of model simulations utilizing a nested grid of 36 km, 12 km and 4 km horizontal resolutions with 21 layers in the vertical direction was performed for a period of 101 h from July 15, 1999; 12 UTC to July 19, 1999; 17 UTC. The model predictions obtained with 4 km horizontal grid resolution were compared with the NE-OPS observations. Comparisons of model temperature with aircraft data revealed that the model exhibited slight underestimation as noted by previous investigators. Comparisons of model temperature with aircraft and tethered balloon data indicate that the mean absolute error varied up to 1.5 °C. The comparisons of model relative humidity with aircraft and tethered balloon indicate that the mean relative error varied from –11% to –22% for the tethered balloon and from –5% to –30% for the aircraft data. The mean relative error for water vapor mixing ratio with respect to the lidar data exhibited a negative bias consistent with the humidity bias corresponding to aircraft and tethered balloon data. The tendency of MM5 to produce estimates of very low wind speeds, especially in the early-mid afternoon hours, as noted by earlier investigators, is seen in this study also. It is indeed true that the initial fields as well as the fields utilized in the data assimilation also contribute to some of the differences between the model and observations. Studies such as these which compare the grid averaged mean state variables with observations have inherent difficulties. Despite the above limitations, the results of the present study broadly conform to the general traits of MM5 as noted by earlier investigators.     

WIND GENERATED WAVES IN LAKE OKEECHOBEE1

ABSTRACT: The study of wind generated waves is important because waves affect sediment resuspension in lakes. Measurements of wind velocity and wave elevation were made at three different stations in Lake Okeechobee. Significant wave heights were computed using a direct count from the recorded data, and verified by the root-mean-square value approach. The correlation between wind stress and significant wave height also was analyzed. The data revealed a strong correlation. In addition to field measurements, a Boussinesq-type wind-wave model was developed to simulate wind-generated, long-propagating waves. This model included the effects of wind stress and bottom viscous dissipation. Wave elevation and velocity field were evaluated numerically. A six-day simulation using 1996 wind data was conducted. Simulated significant wave heights were found to agree reasonably well with measured values. A predictive wind-wave model provides information about wind generated waves, which is used to compute bottom shear stresses required for sediment resuspension studies.     

基于机器学习的电热防除冰表面温度变化趋势预测

针对飞机部件周期控制律电加热防除冰的应用,提出基于机器学习以预测电加热防除冰表面温度的变化趋势.依靠大型结冰风洞及其电加热防除冰控制系统完成防除冰试验,获得有效的试验数据,以通、断电周期为分割单元,将试验数据划分成验证集和训练集.根据电热防除冰过程的换热情况,构建样本的特征参数,利用机器学习的有监督学习方式,选择KNN近邻回归算法和局部线性加权回归算法预测温度变化率,再转换为温度,得到的温度变化与测量数据的线性相关性达到80％以上的高相似度结果,表明使用机器学习可快速预测电热防除冰部件的表面温度变化趋势,且不同的回归算法针对模型不同测温点位置的预测效果存在差异.     

广州地区灰霾过程和清洁过程的边界层特征对比分析

利用2014~2016年广州国家基本气象站的微波辐射计、风廓线雷达和地面观测数据,研究广州地区灰霾过程和清洁过程的边界层结构特征.结果表明：（1）灰霾过程中,270m高度以下风速随高度递减,270m高度以上的风速随高度递增,2000m以下的风速增率小于2000m以上的风速增率,盛行风向随高度的增加呈顺时针旋转,510m高度以下风速基本小于3.0m/s,其中08：00至20：00,390m高度以下风速小于2.0m/s;清洁过程中510~1590m和2790~3000m存在风速大于5.0m/s的高值中心,1830m高度以下,清洁过程各层的平均风速明显高于灰霾过程;（2）贴地逆温与能见度总体上呈负相关,与PM_2.5浓度呈正相关,相关系数分别为-0.367和0.455,而当贴地逆温和低空逆温同时存在时,其相关性更高,其相关系数分别为-0.5和0.601,说明多层逆温的存在更容易出现灰霾天气.灰霾过程中,低空逆温与能见度和PM_2.5的相关不明显,而清洁过程中,低空逆温的出现主要与冷空气南下有关,其与能见度呈正相关（0.217）,和PM_2.5浓度呈负相关（-0.64）,低空逆温不利于灰霾天气形成;（3）灰霾过程中,贴地逆温出现频率为60.68%,平均逆温强度为1.38℃/100m,平均逆温厚度为153.20m,明显高于清洁过程;清洁过程中,低空逆温的逆温强度、厚度和出现频率分别为0.27℃/100m、691.07m和64.61%,明显高于灰霾过程.（4）清洁过程的混合层高度明显高于灰霾过程,清洁过程的日均混合层高度（958.92m）是灰霾过程（398.03m）的2.4倍.     

阴山北麓草原生态功能区防风固沙服务受益范围识别

风蚀是北方干旱与半干旱农牧交错带面临的严峻问题。论文以阴山北麓草原生态功能区为例,利用HYSPLIT模型模拟了当地生态系统提供的防风固沙服务流动路径,通过空间插值获得了功能区防风固沙服务的受益范围及其获得效益的相对大小,确定了受益范围内的土地覆被、受益人口及GDP。研究结果显示：1）2010年阴山北麓草原生态功能区的防风固沙服务大部分发生在春季,其流动路径主要往功能区东部和东南部区域延伸;2）防风固沙受益土地面积占全国土地面积的46%,主要位于功能区东部和南部地区;3）功能区受益的人口占当年全国总人口的75%,受益GDP占当年全国GDP总量的67%。未来可以根据受益区获得防风固沙效益的相对大小确定受益区不同区域横向生态付费金额,以补偿当地采取防风固沙措施导致的经济损失和投入,实现地区间公平,促进区域可持续发展。     

不利风向条件下北部湾人为源对海口市PM2.5浓度影响的模拟研究

通过分析2013—2017年海口市风向频率、地面PM_(2.5)浓度及海口市所处北部湾地理位置,确定12月为北部湾对海口市最不利风向时间段.利用中尺度气象模式(WRF,Weather Research Forecast)驱动空气质量模型(CMAQ,Community Multi-scale Air Quality),设置一系列数值模拟情景,深入分析北部湾人为源对海口市PM_(2.5)浓度影响.结果表明:WRF/CMAQ能很好地再现北部湾气象场和PM_(2.5)浓度的时空分布.2013年12月,北部湾人为源对海口市PM_(2.5)平均贡献率约为45.4%,其中约有90%来源于海口市自身人为源,约有10%来源于广东广西片区,海南片区除海口外其余市县贡献可忽略不计.污染时段,北部湾和海口市自身贡献率均下降,平均贡献率分别为40%和36%,表明污染时段海口市PM_(2.5)主要源区不仅来自北部湾.通过分析后向轨迹,发现污染时段均会经过一个关键区——珠三角区域,表明珠三角区域很有可能也是造成2013年12月海口市PM_(2.5)污染的主要源区.清洁时段,北部湾和海口市自身贡献率均上升,平均贡献率分别为52%和48%,表明北部湾对海口市PM_(2.5)浓度影响在清洁时段更显著.因此,北部湾未来产业规划值得关注,因为这些产业很有可能使目前海口市清洁时段变为污染时段,导致空气质量下降.     

突扩巷道模型风流态的LDA与PIV联合测试

针对传统的接触式瞬时速度测量方法的局限性,采用非接触测量技术激光多普勒测速仪(LDA)及粒子成像测速仪(PIV)对平直巷道及断面突扩后风流状态进行试验测试。在巷道试验模型条件下,PIV技术可以瞬时获得巷道突扩流场信息,平直巷道速度流线基本呈平滑直线,突扩隅角有大涡存在,并且涡流区测风方向极不稳定,而且风速很低,风速平均值在0.1~0.2 m/s波动,表明在煤矿井下测风时可以有条件地忽略涡流区。LDA技术测试得到巷道断面各点统计平均流速,由于受突扩涡流及二次流的影响,平直巷道断面风速从壁面以跃迁方式"突变"达到均值,断面风速分布呈近似均等的动态波浪线分布而非准抛物线型分布。结果表明,LDA与PIV测量技术联合应用可以测试以湍流为特征的巷道流场风流变化情况。     

Perceived enjoyment,concentration, intention,and speed violation behavior: Using flow theory and theory of planned behavior

Objective: Road accidents are an important public health concern, and speeding is a major contributor. Although flow theory (FLT) is a valid model for understanding behavior, currently the nature of the roles and interplay of FLT constructs within the theory of planned behavior (TPB) framework when attempting to explain the determinants of motivations for intention to speed and speeding behavior of car drivers is not yet known. The study aims to synthesize TPB and FLT in explaining drivers of advanced vehicles intentions to speed and speed violation behaviors and evaluate factors that are critical for explaining intention and behavior.

Method: The hypothesized model was validated using a sample collected from 354 fully licensed drivers of advanced vehicles, involving 278 males and 76 females on 2 occasions separated by a 3-month interval. During the first of the 2 occasions, participants completed questionnaire measures of TPB and FLT variables. Three months later, participants' speed violation behaviors were assessed.

Results: The study observed a significant positive relationship between the constructs. The proposed model accounted for 51 and 45% of the variance in intention to speed and speed violation behavior, respectively. The independent predictors of intention were enjoyment, attitude, and subjective norm. The independent predictors of speed violation behavior were enjoyment, concentration, intention, and perceived behavioral control.

Conclusions: The findings suggest that safety interventions for preventing speed violation behaviors should be aimed at underlying beliefs influencing the speeding behaviors of drivers of advanced vehicles. Furthermore, perceived enjoyment is of equal importance to driver's intention, influencing speed violation behavior.     

卧龙降水稳定同位素与季风活动的关系

2003-07～2004-07在四川卧龙自然保护区对逐次降水事件进行采样,分析了降水的稳定同位素特征及其与降水量、气温和风向风速等气象参数的关系.结果表明.4～8月降水的过量氘(d-excess)值为(8.4±7.4)‰,降水由东亚季风带来的大洋水汽主导;9～10月降水的d-excess值为(-7.4±12.5)‰,降水由南亚季风带来的经过强烈分馏作用的大洋水汽主导;11月～次年3月降水的d-excess值为(12.5±12.1)‰,降水由本地蒸发水汽以及西风环流带来的内陆蒸发水汽主导.季风期降水的δD和δ18O具降水量效应(r分别为-0.389、-0.380,P＜0.05),次一级是气温影响(P≤0.10).季风期降水的δD、δ18O与南风指数呈显著负相关(r分别为-0.354、-0.390,P＜0.05),表明降水中的稳定同位素比率对水汽来源与运输过程指示性很强,特别是南亚季风的暴发带来了稳定同位素比率和d-excess值都极低的降水.