Conceptualizing controversies in the EU circular bioeconomy transition

The transition towards a circular bioeconomy (CBE) in the European Union is not without contestation. In particular, research has highlighted potential trade-offs of the large-scale production of bio-resources, for instance with environmental quality goals. To date, however, it remains underexplored in the CBE literature how controversies develop throughout a transition process. To address this gap, this paper explores where controversies are situated in a transition, how they change throughout, and how they influence the transition process. First, we suggest that controversies can be situated on and between different system layers within a transition. Second, we offer an explanation of how controversies evolve, as actors confirm, integrate, disintegrate and polarize underlying storylines. Third, these controversies can have both productive and unproductive outcomes while they unfold throughout a transition. We illustrate this understanding with the example of biorefineries as CBE key technology and discuss a research agenda on controversies in sustainability transitions.     

From insight to action in reservoir management—lessons from Asia

The World Commission on Dams (WCD) has now presented its final report on the problems with large dams. Many dam projects were found to be underperforming, especially those built for irrigation purposes. WCD also reports that many projects fail to meet current standards of social equity. A reallocation of costs and benefits is needed, but entrenched interests make this a difficult task. This article identifies shortcomings in large Asian irrigation projects: why the problems emerged, and what could be done to improve the performance of existing projects. The article argues that Asian irrigation agencies take mainly an engineering perspective, focusing on the dam itself. In a large number of cases, it takes over 10 years for the infrastructure to be installed and for the water to be delivered to the fields of the command area. Agencies need to improve their competence in dealing with social and environmental issues. This article argues that social and economic infrastructure is often inadequate; there is a need for an integrated view of the role of agriculture in development. Furthermore, adaptive management practices and water user participation can often be critical elements. To be successful, participation needs to be gender sensitive, and stakeholders at all income levels need to be consulted. To bridge the gulf between rhetoric and action, there is also a need for independent evaluation of dam projects.     

江苏沿海地区耕地利用转型及其生态系统服务价值变化响应

论文以江苏沿海地区1990、2000和2010年3期土地利用空间数据为基础,在GIS、地学信息图谱理论和Costanza等生态系统服务价值测算方法的支持下合成时间序列表征下的耕地利用转型图谱、耕地利用转型模式图谱和生态系统服务价值图谱,据此揭示江苏沿海地区耕地转型时空变化特征及其生态系统服务价值变化响应规律。结果表明：1）1990-2000年阶段耕地以建设用地、水域和林地占用为主,补充耕地来源除建设用地、水域和林地外,还包括了草地,耕地占用大于补充。空间差异以“耕地→建设用地”、“草地→耕地”最为明显,空间分离度低。2）2000-2010年阶段耕地占用的去向增加了未利用地,草地仍是主要的耕地补充来源。空间上以“耕地→建设用地”和“耕地→水域”图谱变化最为显著,空间分离度变大。3）1990-2010年耕地利用转型模式以后期变化最为显著。4）近20 a间,江苏沿海生态系统服务总价值由170.85×10⁸元提升为182.23×10⁸元,水域是提高生态系统服务价值最主要的贡献类型。耕地利用转型导致耕地的生态系统服务价值降低,“耕地→建设用地”是最主要的生态减值图谱 类型。     

On modelling the global copper mining rates,market supply,copper price and the end of copper reserves

The world supply and turnover of copper was modelled using simple empirical estimates and a COPPER systems dynamics model developed for this study. The model combines mining, trade markets, price mechanisms, population dynamics, use in society and waste as well as recycling, into a whole world system. The degree of sustainability and resource time horizon was estimated using four different methods including (1) burn-off rates, (2) peak discovery early warning, (3) Hubbert's production model, and (4) COPPER, a system dynamics model. The ultimately recoverable reserves (URR) have been estimated using different sources that converge around 2800 million tonne, where about 800 million tonne have already been mined, and 2000 million tonne remain. The different methods independently suggest peak copper mine production in the near future. The model was run for a longer period to cover all systems dynamics and delays. The peak production estimates are in a narrow window in time, from 2031 to 2042, with the best model estimate in 2034, or 21 years from the date of writing. In a longer perspective, taking into account price and recycling, the supply of copper to society is estimated to run out sometime after 2400. The outputs from all models put focus on the importance of copper recycling so that society can become more sustainable with respect to copper supply.