Geographic range size and extinction risk assessment in nomadic species

Geographic range size is often conceptualized as a fixed attribute of a species and treated as such for the purposes of quantification of extinction risk; species occupying smaller geographic ranges are assumed to have a higher risk of extinction, all else being equal. However many species are mobile, and their movements range from relatively predictable to‐and‐fro migrations to complex irregular movements shown by nomadic species. These movements can lead to substantial temporary expansion and contraction of geographic ranges, potentially to levels which may pose an extinction risk. By linking occurrence data with environmental conditions at the time of observations of nomadic species, we modeled the dynamic distributions of 43 arid‐zone nomadic bird species across the Australian continent for each month over 11 years and calculated minimum range size and extent of fluctuation in geographic range size from these models. There was enormous variability in predicted spatial distribution over time; 10 species varied in estimated geographic range size by more than an order of magnitude, and 2 species varied by >2 orders of magnitude. During times of poor environmental conditions, several species not currently classified as globally threatened contracted their ranges to very small areas, despite their normally large geographic range size. This finding raises questions about the adequacy of conventional assessments of extinction risk based on static geographic range size (e.g., IUCN Red Listing). Climate change is predicted to affect the pattern of resource fluctuations across much of the southern hemisphere, where nomadism is the dominant form of animal movement, so it is critical we begin to understand the consequences of this for accurate threat assessment of nomadic species. Our approach provides a tool for discovering spatial dynamics in highly mobile species and can be used to unlock valuable information for improved extinction risk assessment and conservation planning.     

Ten ways remote sensing can contribute to conservation

In an effort to increase conservation effectiveness through the use of Earth observation technologies, a group of remote sensing scientists affiliated with government and academic institutions and conservation organizations identified 10 questions in conservation for which the potential to be answered would be greatly increased by use of remotely sensed data and analyses of those data. Our goals were to increase conservation practitioners’ use of remote sensing to support their work, increase collaboration between the conservation science and remote sensing communities, identify and develop new and innovative uses of remote sensing for advancing conservation science, provide guidance to space agencies on how future satellite missions can support conservation science, and generate support from the public and private sector in the use of remote sensing data to address the 10 conservation questions. We identified a broad initial list of questions on the basis of an email chain‐referral survey. We then used a workshop‐based iterative and collaborative approach to whittle the list down to these final questions (which represent 10 major themes in conservation): How can global Earth observation data be used to model species distributions and abundances? How can remote sensing improve the understanding of animal movements? How can remotely sensed ecosystem variables be used to understand, monitor, and predict ecosystem response and resilience to multiple stressors? How can remote sensing be used to monitor the effects of climate on ecosystems? How can near real‐time ecosystem monitoring catalyze threat reduction, governance and regulation compliance, and resource management decisions? How can remote sensing inform configuration of protected area networks at spatial extents relevant to populations of target species and ecosystem services? How can remote sensing‐derived products be used to value and monitor changes in ecosystem services? How can remote sensing be used to monitor and evaluate the effectiveness of conservation efforts? How does the expansion and intensification of agriculture and aquaculture alter ecosystems and the services they provide? How can remote sensing be used to determine the degree to which ecosystems are being disturbed or degraded and the effects of these changes on species and ecosystem functions?     

基于人的认知可靠性模型(HCR)的接车进路办理诊断时间的研究

接发列车作业事故在铁路运输事故中占有相当大的比重。为减少接车作业事故的发生,合理制定车站接车进路办理时的诊断时间是保证接车作业安全的关键。针对车站采用写实法查定时具有较大随意性的问题,提出采用人的认知可靠性(HCR)模型,根据人因失误概率计算接车作业诊断时间的方法,并在自动闭塞区段通过模拟机实验进行了验证。结果表明,HCR模型确定的诊断时间与人因失误之间的关系与写实法的测定数据具有良好的符合性;作业人员的训练水平对诊断时间有较大的影响;利用该模型,根据作业人员的训练水平与可接受的人因失误概率,可以确定接车进路办理的最佳诊断时间,或对写实法测定的诊断时间进行订正。     

Developing and validating a scientific model for exploring safe work practices in interdisciplinary teams

Health research literature on quality and safety in recent years has pointed to a need to explore the characteristics of interdisciplinary team work unique to the health care sector and the particular organization. The literature also has identified a need for scientific models that explore and integrate existing findings concerning team dynamics. In this article, I attempt to address these concerns by developing and validating a scientific model for exploring safe work practices of interdisciplinary OR teams. Specifically, existing health research literature on quality and safety is reviewed to identify and incorporate various team-related aspects into dimensions of the proposed model. To further validate the model, I conduct an ethnographic study of safe work practices within an interdisciplinary OR setting. I find that safe work practices can be viewed as a product of the individual’s and team’s ability to draw on and combine explicit and tacit knowledge repertoires, which again is a product of the particular inner and outer structural conditions of a system. While the findings add their own unique distinctiveness to the scientific model, the findings also compare to the existing aspects and dimensions of the model. I conclude that the fit of the empirical data to the model improves the validity of the model, and also the potential application of the model in ethnographic research within different medical and/or team settings.     

Research priorities for conservation and natural resource management in Oceania's small‐island developing states

For conservation science to effectively inform management, research must focus on creating the scientific knowledge required to solve conservation problems. We identified research questions that, if answered, would increase the effectiveness of conservation and natural resource management practice and policy in Oceania's small‐island developing states. We asked conservation professionals from academia, governmental, and nongovernmental organizations across the region to propose such questions and then identify which were of high priority in an online survey. We compared the high‐priority questions with research questions identified globally and for other regions. Of 270 questions proposed by respondents, 38 were considered high priority, including: What are the highest priority areas for conservation in the face of increasing resource demand and climate change? How should marine protected areas be networked to account for connectivity and climate change? What are the most effective fisheries management policies that contribute to sustainable coral reef fisheries? High‐priority questions related to the particular challenges of undertaking conservation on small‐island developing states and the need for a research agenda that is responsive to the sociocultural context of Oceania. Research priorities for Oceania relative to elsewhere were broadly similar but differed in specific issues relevant to particular conservation contexts. These differences emphasize the importance of involving local practitioners in the identification of research priorities. Priorities were reasonably well aligned among sectoral groups. Only a few questions were widely considered answered, which may indicate a smaller‐than‐expected knowledge‐action gap. We believe these questions can be used to strengthen research collaborations between scientists and practitioners working to further conservation and natural resource management in this region.     

特长隧道风仓接力通风关键参数及其效果研究

通过长斜井进入正洞施工的特长隧道,往往面临独头通风距离过长、工作面风量不足等问题,造成污染物难以在规定时间排出洞外。以衢宁铁路鹫峰山隧道风仓接力施工通风为依托,采用数值模拟方法研究了风仓长度、隔板长度及风机布置方式对轴流风机通风效率的影响,分析了原压入式通风和风仓接力通风洞内CO运移特性。结果表明,风仓长度从10 m增至25 m时,轴流风机通风效率大幅提高,风仓长度大于25 m时,对轴流风机通风效率的影响不大。设置中隔板会影响空气在风仓内的分流并产生较多旋流,从而降低风机通风效率;轴流风机远离斜井端对称布置,风仓内部风流的引流速度和引流范围最大,风流运动路径最优,通风效率最高。由于压入式通风受限于斜井断面尺寸及现场布置方式,当通风距离超过3 000 m后,无法满足洞内作业环境规定的条件。在正洞与斜井交叉部位设置密封的风仓,形成接力通风,能大幅度延长通风距离,提高通风效率,改善洞内空气质量。     

青海省扎日根结扎群火山岩形成时代及构造背景分析

青海扎日根结扎群火山岩中基性岩以贫硅、钾,高钛、钙,中性岩类以低硅、中钾、钛、钙,酸性岩类以高硅、钾,中钛,低钙为特征.根据Fe*/MgO-TiO2图解上显示出本区火山岩绝大多数火山岩落在岛弧区.微量元素中Th/Nb=0.9>0.11,Nb/Zr>0.04显示出其构造背景为陆-陆碰撞形成的岛弧区.扎日根结扎群火山岩时代Rb-Sr同位素等时线给出的年龄为231±28 Ma 和225±8 Ma,属晚三叠世.另外Sr同位素的初始比值ISr=0.70522±0.00023,小于0.719,表明岩浆(原始)来源于上地幔,并且在上升的过程中受到地壳的混染.     

面向粮食产量空间化的多元回归分析模型中的两个关键问题探讨

为比较不同区域尺度变量对模型拟合效果的影响,在全国不分区和分区两种情况下,分别基于县级和地市级两个区域尺度上的样本构建粮食产量与水田、水浇地、旱地面积之间的多元线性回归模型,结果显示,用地市级数据作分析样本比用县级数据作分析样本好,分区建模比不分区建模效果好。因此,将全国划分为7个区,以地市级数据作为区域尺度的变量,在区域、栅格、亚栅格三个尺度上探讨变量（因变量、自变量）尺度和常数项取值这两个因素对模型应用的影响。得到以下结论：1）基于区域尺度样本构建的多元回归模型,如果常数项不为0,则不能用于空间化计算;如果常数项为0,则可以用于空间化计算;2）基于栅格尺度样本构建的多元回归模型,不论常数项是否为0,均可应用于空间化计算;3）基于亚栅格尺度样本构建的多元回归模型,不论其常数项是否为0,也均可用于空间化计算,但需要将计算结果乘以一个系数,该系数等于栅格单元面积与亚栅格单元面积的比值。上述结论对其他类型的统计数据空间化具有指导和参考价值。     

四川省农村环境空气污染源分布及其对自动监测点位设置影响的研究

将四川省农村地区分成平原和浅丘区、小起伏山地和高丘区、高山峡谷区三种类型区域。利用GIS软件,将四川省划分网格,分别统计每个网格中的工业废气污染点源数量和主要交通线路长度,得出四川省工业废气污染点源密度分级图和四川省主要公路密度分布图,以及结合农村污染面源的情况分析,总结出农村区域的主要污染密度分布类型。结果表明,在一定区域范围内,农村平原和浅丘区的工业源、交通源、农村面源分布均匀;高丘区、小起伏山区、高山峡谷区的污染源分布均具有明显的地理分布特性,山间平地和山谷台地的污染源分布密度高;根据四川省污染源分布规律给农村空气自动监测布点提供了指导。     

化工园区地下水环境状况调查监测布点研究

借鉴环境风险源目标管理的理念,按照“分区、分类、分级”监测的原则,建立了化工园区地下水环境状况调查监测布点方法体系,并以某化工园区为示例展开应用研究。结果显示,该方法能对化工园区不同区域、不同类型、不同级别的地下水污染源构建差异化监测网络,解决化工园区地下水污染多元化监测布点问题,可为化工园区地下水环境状况调查监测布点方案的拟定或优化调整提供工作参考。