不同季节气象条件对北京城区高黑碳浓度变化的影响

利用2013年至2015年北京城区黑碳气溶胶(下文统称为"BC")和PM2.5观测资料,结合地面气象观测资料、ECMWF边界层高度再分析资料和FNL/NCEP不同高度风速再分析资料,讨论了BC质量浓度及其在PM_(2.5)质量浓度中所占比例(下文统称"黑碳占比")的季节、月、日变化特征,并通过计算北京城区BC浓度与不同高度风速的相关矢量,分析了气象条件和外来输送对北京城区BC浓度变化的影响.结果发现:研究时段内北京城区BC浓度平均值为(4.77±4.49)μg·m~(-3);黑碳占比为8.23%±5.47%.BC浓度和黑碳占比在春、夏季低,秋、冬季高,其日变化特征在4个季节均为"白天低夜间高"的单峰型特征.随着PM_(2.5)浓度的升高,BC浓度增大,黑碳占比减小.当北京地区风向为东北、东北偏东、东南和西南偏西(主风向)时,BC浓度与风速和边界层高度均呈反向变化,即随风速和边界层高度的增大而减小.另外不同季节BC浓度随风速变化的临界值及其变化速率不同.冬季高BC浓度时段,北京城区BC浓度在低层大气的关键影响区分别位于河北南部与山东交界地区以及河北西北部与山西内蒙交界地区;高空关键影响区主要位于北京以西的河北西部、山西北部和内蒙古地区.     

达里诺尔湖近2400年以来Hg元素含量变化及环境意义

汞（Hg）元素作为一种全球性循环元素,对环境的影响正逐渐成为人们关注的焦点之一.为揭示寒旱区达里诺尔湖沉积物的Hg污染历史及人类活动对湖泊沉积物中Hg污染的影响,通过采集湖泊沉积物岩芯（编号DL1）,在建立DL1岩芯沉积地层年代框架的基础上,结合沉积物粒度特征、总有机质（TOC）含量等指标参数的变化,对DL1岩芯记录的地质历史上的Hg含量变化特征及环境意义进行了综合分析.结果显示,沉积物记录的Hg元素污染具有明显的阶段性变化特征：2400~1400 cal.a BP,Hg含量呈逐渐降低趋势,期间降水量呈逐步减少趋势,区域气候显著干旱;1400~200 cal.a BP,Hg含量相对稳定,呈小幅度波动变化,对应了区域气候的干-湿交替;近200 cal.a BP以来,Hg含量明显增加,这可能是受人类活动影响的结果.整体上,地质历史上DL1沉积物中Hg含量变化受气候干冷-暖湿交替周期性变化影响较大.而近200 cal.a BP来Hg与TOC等指标间显著正相关,则显示了沉积物中有机质可能吸附了大量的Hg元素,使其呈顶端富集趋势,进而对湖泊水生态环境造成影响.     

事故车辆影响下的城市三车道道路交通流仿真

为探究事故车辆对城市三车道道路交通影响机制,首先,分析考虑事故车辆的城市三车道道路交通流特征;然后,构建左车道优先且考虑主动抢道和被动抢道行为的元胞自动机交通流模型;最后;研究事故持续时间td变化时事故车辆分别位于M道和R道的城市道路交通流演化.结果 表明:事故车辆会形成交通瓶颈,呈现上游车辆聚集下游车辆稀疏的时空特征...     

Dissipation of four forest-use herbicides at high latitudes

Background, aim, and scope  Large-scale deforestation is occurring in subarctic North America following clearing by salvage logging or insect attack. Numerous shrubs, herbs, and deciduous tree species tend to dominate areas on which stands of white spruce have grown. In the absence of economically advantageous mechanical methods, several herbicides have value in efforts to reforest by planting white spruce. Glyphosate, imazapyr, triclopyr, and hexazinone are all capable of selectively removing many competing species, but there is concern about whether they would degrade naturally or persist owing to the frigid climate. Materials and methods  We established test plots with all four herbicides in upland and river bottom sites at 65°N and 58°N latitudes. The northern site has extremely cold winters, with soils that freeze to a depth of 1–2 m, and precipitation of 275 mm/year. The southern site has heavy rain and snowfall, amounting to 2,250 mm/year evenly distributed. Soil seldom freezes deeply. On each test plot, one of the four herbicides was applied at twice the normal operational use rate to facilitate detection. They were applied at the normal timing, with hexazinone, imazapyr, and triclopyr applied in June and glyphosate applied in fall. Soils were sampled immediately after treatment and those samples used as references for dissipation data gathered over the next 11–14 months from soil 0- to 15- and 15- to 45-cm depths. Results  Dissipation rates did not follow first-order rates because freezing conditions slowed most microbial activity. All products dissipated to close to or below detection limits within the time of the study. Dissipation from vegetation was substantially more rapid and depended on the nature of the plants treated as well as the product used. While soil residues dissipated more slowly than in temperate regions, they did display consistent dissipation patterns during above-freezing conditions and also the influence of microbial activity. Mobility was very limited with all products but hexazinone. Discussion  These products dissipate during summer in high latitudes much as they would in temperate climates. Winter changes are small, but are not unlike some changes reported elsewhere under freezing conditions. Unlike many other studies, soil water did not influence dissipation heavily, but the high latitude and semi-arid climate also did not create severely droughty soils. Residues in plants were much higher than those in soils, but denatured the vegetation quickly, leading to unsuitability for forage in any case. Conclusions  Low toxicity of these products and their metabolites combined with consistent dissipation and low mobility suggest that toxic hazard of their use at high latitudes need not be a matter of serious concern to humans, terrestrial wildlife, or aquatic systems. They are safe for use in management and rehabilitation of boreal forests when used properly. Recommendations and perspectives  Dissipation at rates approaching those in warmer climates offer a hypothesis that microflora native to high latitudes may be adapted to destruction of such molecules at lower temperatures than may be indicated by experiments with microflora adapted to warmer climates. Residues pose no observable risk to wildlife or humans in the area of use when products are applied properly. Electronic supplementary material  The online version of this article (doi:) contains supplementary material, which is available for authorized users.     

Urbanisation and flood vulnerability in the peri-urban interface of Mexico City

Chronic flooding in the Chalco valley, state of Mexico, Mexico, is the outcome of past and present socio‐environmental changes which have taken place in Mexico City's south‐eastern peri‐urban interface. This flooding is the result of a complex interaction between urbanisation in an ex‐lacustrine area, permanent ecological deterioration and ground subsidence, poor sanitation and inadequate policy responses. Far from solving the flooding problem, short‐term policy responses have created increasingly unsafe conditions for current residents. A socio‐historical analysis of disasters reveals the importance of taking into consideration particular social actors and institutions in hazard generation and flood vulnerability over time. This paper analyses three aspects of this flooding: first, the importance of approaching floods from a socio‐historical perspective; second, the relation between urbanisation, former policies and flood risk generation; and third, current policy responses to and the failure in the risk management of La Compañía Canal.     

柚园间种作物及施用不同有机肥对土壤与柚果的影响

柚树间种短期经济作物在提高柚园经济效益的同时,还可提高土壤的有机质和N、P、K养分质量分数,改善柚园小区气候,增加有机肥来源。间种物残余体作为绿肥,可显著地提高柚果产量和质量。     

影响上海地区热带气旋频数的预测水平评估

在文献「１」研究的基础上,探讨了热带气旋频数预测水平的评估方法,定义了三个更适合于评估每年热带气旋预测性能的参数,对影响上海地区热带气旋频数的预测水平进行了评估,并与“九五”攻关前的业务预测性进行了比较。     

Framing of Geoengineering Affects Support for Climate Change Mitigation

The growing recognition that climate change mitigation alone will be inadequate has led scientists and policymakers to discuss climate geoengineering. An experiment with a US sample found, contrary to previous research, that reading about geoengineering did not reduce conservatives’ skepticism about the existence of anthropogenic climate change. Moreover, depending on how it is framed, geoengineering can reduce support for mitigation among both conservatives and non-conservatives. When geoengineering is framed as a major solution, people worry less about climate change, leading to reduced mitigation support. When framed as disastrous, people perceived geoengineering as riskier, also leading to a decrease in mitigation support. A more moderate framing of geoengineering as a partial solution is less susceptible to moral hazard effects. Overall, results suggest that geoengineering will not lessen political polarization over anthropogenic climate change, and could undercut support for mitigation efforts. Instead, framing geoengineering as a small piece to solving a big puzzle seems to be the best strategy to weaken this potential moral hazard.     

Psychological Reactance From Reading Basic Facts on Climate Change: The Role of Prior Views and Political Identification

Scholars continue to search for solutions to shift climate change skeptics’ views on climate science and policy. However, research has shown that certain audiences are resistant to change regarding environmental issues. To explore this issue further, we examine the presence of reactance among different audiences in response to simple, yet prominently used, climate change messages. Our results show that emphasizing the scientific consensus of climate change produces reactance, but only among people who question the existence of climate change. Moreover, adding political identification to the model as an additional moderating variable shows the increases in reactance occur among Republicans who question the existence of climate change. Finally, our results show that reactance to climate change messaging may lead to backfiring effects on important outcomes tied to climate change such as risk perceptions, climate change beliefs, and support for mitigation policies.     

Unintended Effects of Emphasizing the Role of Climate Change in Recent Natural Disasters

In 2017, the United States experienced a series of natural hazards (hurricanes, wildfires, and blizzards) that resulted in significant loss of life and property. Emphasizing the role of climate change in these events might offer an important tool for engagement, particularly with skeptical audiences. However, in a survey experiment (N?=?1504) involving three different natural hazards – hurricanes, wildfires, and blizzards – we find that emphasizing the role of climate change in these hazards produced unintended effects for climate change skeptics. In particular, skeptics experienced resistance to the news article, which associated with reduced perceived hazard severity. These backfiring effects likely serve as a defensive mechanism used by skeptics to maintain their prior views of climate change, illustrating the challenges faced in communicating climate change to skeptical audiences. These findings offer additional insight for those attempting to communicate climate-related risk information to skeptical audiences.