古代黄河中游的环境变化和灾害——对都城迁移发展的影响

都城的选址、建设和迁移发展必须以环境资源为基础。我国古代的国家都城在黄河中游反复迁移，以至最后东迁南迁。在这个过程中，环境变迁和灾害一直是重要的驱动因素之一。通过统计分析历史时期洪涝和干旱灾害，以及气候水文变化资料，结合古都所在地的环境资源条件分析讨论，揭示了黄河中游环境变化和灾害对都城迁移发展的影响。都城在长安与洛阳之间的反复迁移，以及后来的东移开封，和南移到长江下游平原，环境的变迁是重要的驱动力之一。     

北京山区公路地质灾害应急与防治对策

北京是地质灾害较严重的城市之一,具有灾种多、活动频繁、群发性强的特征。北京山区公路所遭受的地质灾害主要有滑坡、滑(崩)塌、泥石流、岩溶、采空地面塌陷等。为了防止山区公路地质灾害可能造成的危害,笔者通过对北京山区公路所遭受的地质灾害类型、发育特征、分布规律等特点及其所造成的危害进行分析、研究,提出了山区公路地质灾害应急与防治对策,以提高北京市的防灾减灾能力,减少和避免地质灾害造成的损失。     

Upland Controls on the Hydrological Functioning of Riparian Zones in Glacial Till Valleys of the Midwest1

Abstract: Identifying relationships between landscape hydrogeological setting, riparian hydrological functioning and riparian zone sensitivity to climate and water quality changes is critical in order to best use riparian zones as best management practices in the future. In this study, we investigate water table dynamics, water flow path and the relative importance of precipitation, deep ground water (DG) and seep water as sources of water to a riparian zone in a deeply incised glacial till valley of the Midwest. Data indicate that water table fluctuations are strongly influenced by soil texture and to a lesser extent by upland sediment stratigraphy producing seeps near the slope bottom. The occurrence of till in the upland and at 1.7‐2 m in the riparian zone contributes to maintaining flow parallel to the ground surface at this site. Lateral ground‐water fluxes at this site with a steep topography in the upland (16%) and loam soil near the slope bottom are small (<10 l/d/m stream length) and intermittent. A shift in flow path from a lateral direction to a down valley direction is observed in the summer despite the steep concave topography and the occurrence of seeps at the slope bottom. Principal component and discriminant analysis indicate that riparian water is most similar to seep water throughout the year and that DG originating from imbedded sand and gravel layers in the lower till unit is not a major source of water to riparian zones in this setting. Water quality data and the dependence of the riparian zone for recharge on seep water suggest that sites in this setting may be highly sensitive to changes in precipitation and water quality in the upland in the future. A conceptual framework describing the hydrological functioning of riparian zones on this setting is presented to generalize the finding of this study.     

Effect of Macroalgal Expansion and Marine Protected Areas on Coral Recovery Following a Climatic Disturbance

Disturbance plays an important role in structuring marine ecosystems, and there is a need to understand how conservation practices, such as the designation of Marine Protected Areas (MPAs), facilitate postdisturbance recovery. We evaluated the association of MPAs, herbivorous fish biomass, substrate type, postdisturbance coral cover, and change in macroalgal cover with coral recovery on the fringing reefs of the inner Seychelle islands, where coral mortality after a 1998 bleaching event was extensive. We visually estimated benthic cover and fish biomass at 9 sites in MPAs where fishing is banned and at 12 sites where fishing is permitted in 1994, 2005, 2008, and 2011. We used analysis of variance to examine spatial and temporal variations in coral cover and generalized additive models to identify relations between coral recovery and the aforementioned factors that may promote recovery. Coral recovery occurred on all substrate types, but it was highly variable among sites and times. Between 2005 and 2011 the increase in coral cover averaged 1%/year across 21 sites, and the maximum increase was 4%/year. However, mean coral cover across the study area (14%) remained at half of 1994 levels (28%). Sites within MPAs had faster rates of coral recovery than sites in fished areas only where cover of macroalgae was low and had not increased over time. In MPAs where macroalgae cover expanded since 1998 there was no recovery. Where coral was recovering on granite reefs there was a shift in relative prevalence of colony life‐form from branching to encrusting species. This simplification of reef structure may affect associated reef fauna even if predisturbance levels of coral cover are attained. Efecto de la Expansión de Macroalgas y Áreas Marinas Protegidas sobre la Recuperación de Coral Después de una Perturbación Climática     

Two solitudes: post‐tsunami and post‐conflict Aceh

In August 2005, after the devastating tsunami in the Indian Ocean Basin, a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) for the cessation of hostilities was signed by Aceh's longstanding adversaries—the Government of Indonesia and the Free Aceh Movement (GAM). The tsunami was a major catalyst for ‘disaster diplomacy’—international political pressure, which, this paper argues, was an important ingredient in creating conditions for the MoU, although the situation within Aceh also shaped the peace process. Based on interviews conducted in 2006 and 2007 with government officials, GAM representatives and fighters, and non‐governmental organization staff in Aceh, this paper finds that assistance for tsunami survivors far exceeds that available for conflict survivors and ex‐combatants. The formation of these two solitudes—the tsunami‐affected and the conflict‐affected—compounds challenges for sustaining peace in Aceh. This research points to an enduring lack of livelihoods for former fighters and conflict victims that may threaten a sustainable peace.     

Which “fairness”, for whom,and why? An empirical analysis of plural notions of fairness in Fairtrade Carbon Projects,using Q methodology

Fairness is a relative concept with multiple, subjective and competing notions of what it is, how to achieve it, and for which beneficiaries. Fairtrade International's collaborative efforts to develop a standard to certify Fairtrade Carbon Credits (FCCs) brought together multiple stakeholders in a deliberative context. This paper uses Q methodology to empirically assess the notions of fairness this wider consultation group held. Three distinct ‘factors’ (or perspectives) are identified, and discussed in relation to a multi-dimensional framework for exploring fairness. The first factor prioritises development delivered through organisations, participation in decision-making and use of minimum prices to adjust trade imbalances. The second factor conceptualises a non-exclusive approach maximising generation and sales of FCCs, involving a commodity chain where everyone performs their optimum function with financial transparency and information-sharing to facilitate negotiations. The third factor involves minimising intervention, allowing carbon commodity chains and project set-ups to function efficiently, and make their own adjustments to enhance benefits access and quality received by beneficiaries. The three factors reflect debates within carbon and fair trade spheres about who should be playing which roles, who should be accessing which benefits, and how people should be supported to interact on an uneven playing field. Communicating findings to standards organisations enables a more open and inclusive policy process. Our research provides a critical reflection on these plural notions of fairness, identifying areas of (dis)agreement within the FCC dialogue, and provides a wider, yet manageable, set of inputs for supporting the FCC process during its inception and subsequent implementation. Clearer definitions of “fairness” are also useful for standards organisations in reviewing ex post whether “fairness” goals have been met.     

滨海城市环境工程地质问题成灾特点分析

滨海城市是我国经济最发达的地区，近年来经济与城市建设均得到迅速发展，城市土地开发力度加大，由此起起的环境工程地质问题也日趋严重。本文分析了我国滨海城市环境工程地质问题的主要类型，研究了环境工程地质问题的成灾特点。     

Livelihoods, vulnerability and adaptation to climate change in Morogoro, Tanzania

This article examines farmers’ livelihood responses and vulnerability to climate variability and other stressors in Morogoro, Tanzania, to understand their implications for adaptation to climate change by agricultural households in developing world more generally. In Morogoro, agricultural households have extended cultivation, intensified agriculture, diversified livelihoods and migrated to gain access to land, markets and employment as a response to climatic and other stressors. Some of these responses have depleted and degraded natural resources such as forest, soil and water resources, which will complicate their living with climate change in the future. This will be particularly problematic to vulnerable groups such as women, children and pastoralists who have limited access to employment, markets and public services. In this light, fair adaptation to climate change by agricultural households in Morogoro and elsewhere in developing countries requires several complementary responses. Adaptation efforts should involve effective governance of natural resources because they function as safety nets to vulnerable groups. In addition, strengthening of national markets by infrastructure investments and institutional reforms is needed to give incentives to intensification and diversification in agriculture. Market participation also demands enhancement of human capital by public programs on health, education and wellbeing.     

城市灾害风险等级评估流程的探讨及其实证研究

城市在社会发展的进程中起着主要作用,然而,城市灾害造成的严重后果已经对当今社会的发展构成了严重的阻碍,如何确定城市灾害总体风险等级并提出相应的对策措施亟需探讨。本文在分析城市常见四大类灾害(自然灾害、事故灾害、公共卫生灾害、社会安全灾害)的基础之上,进行城市灾害评估流程的介绍,包括灾害识别、灾害分析、灾害评价、提出对策措施,从而为城市灾害的总体等级的确定奠定初步的理论基础。以青岛市统计局相关资料为依据,对青岛市的城市灾害风险等级进行评估,确定其风险等级并提出相关建议措施。     

Modeling Streamflow and Water Quality Sensitivity to Climate Change and Urban Development in 20 U.S. Watersheds

Watershed modeling in 20 large, United States (U.S.) watersheds addresses gaps in our knowledge of streamflow, nutrient (nitrogen and phosphorus), and sediment loading sensitivity to mid‐21st Century climate change and urban/residential development scenarios. Use of a consistent methodology facilitates regional scale comparisons across the study watersheds. Simulations use the Soil and Water Assessment Tool. Climate change scenarios are from the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program dynamically downscaled climate model output. Urban and residential development scenarios are from U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's Integrated Climate and Land Use Scenarios project. Simulations provide a plausible set of streamflow and water quality responses to mid‐21st Century climate change across the U.S. Simulated changes show a general pattern of decreasing streamflow volume in the central Rockies and Southwest, and increases on the East Coast and Northern Plains. Changes in pollutant loads follow a similar pattern but with increased variability. Ensemble mean results suggest that by the mid‐21st Century, statistically significant changes in streamflow and total suspended solids loads (relative to baseline conditions) are possible in roughly 30‐40% of study watersheds. These proportions increase to around 60% for total phosphorus and total nitrogen loads. Projected urban/residential development, and watershed responses to development, are small at the large spatial scale of modeling in this study.