国外气候变化对旅游业影响的定量研究进展与启示

加强气候变化对旅游业影响的定量研究,有助于旅游业在气候变化背景下实现可持续发展。基于SCI/SSCI文献数据库,梳理分析国外气候变化对旅游业影响的定量研究进展。结果显示,30余年来国外主要采用指标方法、需求模型与选择分析方法开展相关研究。20世纪80年代末出现的指标方法是运用最早、最广泛的方法,主要用于旅游资源环境变化等研究,呈现由单项指标转向综合指标的应用趋势;20世纪90年代末兴起的需求模型主要用于天气状况对旅游需求的影响等研究,呈现由时间序列模型转向累计需求模型的应用趋势;21世纪兴起的选择分析主要用于气候变化背景下的行为意愿等研究,呈现由描述统计转向离散选择模型的应用趋势。这些给我国研究的启示是：在研究方法与研究领域上,重点加强累计需求模型在旅游流相关研究中的运用,加强离散选择模型在旅游市场结构相关研究中的运用,加强系统科学方法与大数据技术在相关研究中的运用;在研究对象上,丰富中国境内气候敏感型旅游活动的相关研究,加强“一带一路”沿线国家、地区及青藏高原的相关研究。     

湖南慈利马尾松树轮宽度对气候的响应及1854年以来冬季极端低温重建

利用采自湖南慈利的马尾松树轮样本,建立研究区的标准树轮宽度年表。树轮气候响应分析发现:马尾松径向生长与月最大日降水量在生长季之前部分月份显著负相关(p0.05),在生长季之内部分月份显著正相关(p0.05),与月平均温度、月平均最低温度、月极端最低温度在生长季之前和之内大多月份均显著正相关(p0.05),其中与上一年11月到当年2月(冬季)的平均极端最低温度相关最好(r=0.62,p0.01)。重建了湖南慈利地区1854年以来冬季极端最低温度,重建气温在十年尺度上表现出明显的反"S"型,1854—1916年和1981—2015年处于暖冬时期,1917—1980年处于寒冬时期。此外,共发现29个寒冬年,其中包括3个寒冬时段,分别为1922—1925年、1927—1930年和1953—1960年,其中1953—1960年是自1854年以来最冷的时段。空间相关性分析表明重建序列可以指示我国中东部的冬季低温变化,而冬季低温可能与热带印度洋、西太平洋海温变化异常有关。     

反硝化脱氮对太湖蓝藻水华态势的影响

反硝化作用是水生生态系统的主要脱氮过程,与蓝藻生长之间存在对氮素的竞争作用,然而气候变化背景下反硝化脱氮对蓝藻水华发生动态的影响仍不清楚.基于2017~2021年北太湖为期5 a的水质监测历史数据,结合不同温度下蓝藻生长和沉积物泥浆培养实验,探究了湖体反硝化脱氮与蓝藻水华之间的相互影响.监测数据表明,太湖水体藻类生物量（以Chla表示）高值主要出现在夏秋季节,而总氮浓度季节变化规律与藻类生物量完全相反,冬春季较高,夏秋季显著降低,溶解态无机氮主要以硝态氮为主,并且硝态氮浓度在夏秋季节几乎接近于零.总磷浓度与Chla浓度变化一致.蓝藻培养实验结果表明,20℃以下蓝藻不能大量生长繁殖.泥浆培养实验结果发现,太湖反硝化作用的最高温度阈值为25℃,在10~25℃之间反硝化潜力与温度呈现显著的线性关系（R²=0.99）.反硝化作用发生的最高硝态氮浓度阈值为4 mg ·L^-1,远高于太湖水体的硝态氮浓度,反硝化潜力最高达到（62.98±21.36）μmol ·（kg ·h）^-1.太湖水体反硝化速率受到硝态氮浓度的限制,而气候变暖导致湖泊温度提前升高,会使蓝藻提前生长,蓝藻生长对硝态氮的同化吸收会和反硝化作用产生竞争,使得大量氮还未被反硝化作用脱除就被藻类吸收利用,从而加剧蓝藻水华暴发的态势.研究结果对于解释近年来气候变化背景下太湖蓝藻水华反弹的机制具有重要科学意义.     

汉江流域1951~2003年降水气温时空变化趋势分析

利用Mann Kendall检验方法和空间插值方法，分析了1951~2003年汉江流域年和春、夏、秋、冬四季降水和气温变化趋势的时空分布，并重点分析了丹江口水库上游年降水、年平均气温和北半球气温的变化趋势及相互间的联系。分析发现，在显著性水平α=0.1上，近50年来汉江流域大部分地区降水没有明显的变化趋势，气温呈上升趋势。丹江口水库上游降水在1991年发生突变，从20世纪80年代多雨期进入90年代少雨期，80年代平均降水比1951~2003年多年平均降水多9.7%，90年代平均降水比多年平均降水少11.6%；上游平均气温90年代比多年平均气温高0.2℃，而同期北半球的平均气温也比多年平均高了0.3℃，上游气温同北半球气温同步上升，而上游降水变化受北半球气温升高的影响不断减少，两者之间存在反相关系。分析成果有助于进一步研究气候变化对汉江流域水资源和防洪安全的影响，也将为南水北调中线工程的顺利实施提供科学依据。     

ESTIMATION OF DAILY TEMPERATURE MEANS USING ELEVATION AND LATITUDE IN MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN1

ABSTRACT A model was developed for predicting mean daily, mean daily minimum, and mean daily maximum temperatures in West Virginia. The model is easily used since the only inputs are elevation, latitude, and julian date. With local calibration, the model is expected to apply to other areas in the Appalachian region.     

SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL VARIABILITY IN SUSPENDED SEDIMENT YIELDS OF NORTH ISLAND BASINS,NEW ZEALAND1

ABSTRACT: Specific annual suspended sediment yields and their standard deviations are presented for 47 basins of North Island, New Zealand. Most of the variance in yields is explained by catchment mean rainfall. Rivers with similar flow range have similar suspended sediment concentration ratings, independent of differing watershed lithology and regolith, except for six basins having an abundance of soft fine sediments. Prediction equations for yield and its standard deviation are derived for four essentially arbitrary regions. AU feature rainfall as the independent variable. Differences between regions may owe to variations in intensity, frequency, and duration patterns of storms and, in one area, to bed material size as well. The temporal distribution of annual yields from a basin m be modeled by a two-parameter lognormal function: the prediction equations above may be used to evaluate this function at a site for which suspended sediment data are unavailable.     

Planning environmental sanitation programmes in emergencies

Environmental sanitation programmes are vital for tackling environmental-related disease and ensuring human dignity in emergency situations. If they are to have maximum impact they must be planned in a rapid but systematic manner. An appropriate planning process comprises five key stages: rapid assessment and priority setting; outline programme design; immediate action; detailed programme design; and implementation. The assessment should be based on carefully selected data, which are analysed via comparison with suitable minimum objectives. How the intervention should be prioritised is determined through objective ranking of different environmental sanitation sector needs. Next, a programme design outline is produced to identify immediate and longer-term intervention activities and to guarantee that apposite resources are made available. Immediate action is taken to meet acute emergency needs while the detailed programme design takes shape. This entails in-depth consultation with the affected community and comprehensive planning of activities and resource requirements. Implementation can then begin, which should involve pertinent management and monitoring strategies.     

Spatiotemporal dynamics of forest-tundra communities in the polar urals

The spatiotemporal dynamics of forest-tundra communities in the 20th century have been studied in the timberline ecotone of the Polar Urals. Maps reflecting the distribution of different types of forest-tundra communities have been made, and data on the morphological and age structure of tree stands have been obtained for three time sections (the mid-1910s, 1960s, and 2000s). They show that open and closed forests have markedly expanded due to natural afforestation of the tundra and increase in the density and productivity of existing forest stands. The unidirectional pattern of plant community transition (from the tundra to closed forests) and meteorological data provide evidence that this transition has been conditioned by climate warming and increasing humidity recorded during the past 90 years.Translated from Ekologiya, No. 2, 2005, pp. 83–90.Original Russian Text Copyright © 2005 by Shiyatov, Terentev, Fomin.     

1993-2003年特大火灾发生规律、特征及原因分析

火灾作为一种灾害现象,其发生与发展具有随机性和确定性的双重特性.火灾统计分析是研究火灾随机性规律的一种有效方法,它通过总结、整理和分析大量的原始火灾资料,归纳出火灾发生的统计性规律.本文从1993-2003年我国火灾形势着手,联系火灾形势发展过程中的火灾起数、火灾中人员伤亡和直接财产损失等大量数据,重点分析了特大火灾的原因及类别特征,总结了特大火灾发生发展的规律和趋势,为正确认识和预测我国火灾形势、做好特大火灾的预防工作提供了参考.     

Some Lessons Learned from Public Health on the Process of Adaptation

Lessons learned from more than 150 years of public health research and intervention can provide insights to guide public health professionals and institutions as they design and implement specific strategies, policies, and measures to increase resilience to climate variability and change. This paper identifies both some modifications to public health systems that may enhance adaptive capacity, and lessons drawn from the history of managing environmental and other threats in the public health sector that may have relevance for other sectors as they design approaches to increase their adaptive capacity to more effectively cope with climate variability and change. The views expressed are the author’s own and do not represent official US EPA policy.