未来50年鄱阳湖流域气候变化预估

据 ECHAM5/ MPI OM模式在3种排放情景（SRES高排放A2,中排放A1B,低排放B1）下所做的21世纪前50年气候变化预估试验得到的数据,研究鄱阳湖流域2001~2050年气温和降水相对于目前气候（1961~1990年）的可能变化。结果表明：①未来50年气温在3种排放情景下都将迅速增加,远远高于1990s的增加幅度和速度。A1B情景温度增加最明显,平均气温变化达到162°C。②降水量变化相对复杂,前30年主要为减少趋势,A2情景下减少幅度最大,2020s年均降水量减少了67%;后20年降水量增加,B1情景增加最显著,2030s年增加幅度达到108%。③根据预估的各季节变化结果,1~3月和 4~6月降水量增加;而降水减少主要在7~9月和10~12月,则赣江流域类似于2003~2005年的伏旱、秋旱连冬旱的情况将可能阶段性出现,并在2011~2030年加强。④降水量的空间分异非常明显,东部变化大于西部,南部变化大于北部。⑤如果2001~2050年在A2或A1B情景下,降水序列存在20a的周期振荡;在B1情景下,存在30a的周期振荡。人类排放增加可能弱化振荡强度,并使周期发生变化。     

河流锶元素及其同位素地球化学研究现状与问题

文章系统阐述了近30年来河流锶元素及其同位素地球化学研究方面取得的进展、现状及目前存在的问题,这些问题主要包括:河流锶同位素比值对于源岩的解释问题、河流锶元素含量及其同位素组成的全球参比值问题、不同的端元输入对河流锶元素及其同位素组成的影响以及不同制约因素及研究方法对河流锶元素及其同位素组成的影响等问题。根据目前的研究资料,笔者指出在进行河流锶元素及其同位素地球化学研究过程中应当:(1)考虑矿物岩石在风化过程中锶元素的释放特征及其同位素演化规律;(2)结合同位素地球化学及雨水化学方法对大气及人类活动输入对河流锶元素及其同位素组成的贡献进行校正;(3)开展主要流域的研究工作,尤其是不同构造、地质及气候背景条件不同流域间的对比研究,建立河流锶元素及其同位素组成区域参比值;(4)在研究方法上,应该对区域内降雨、岩石、土壤、沉积物及地下水中的锶元素及其同位素地球化学特征进行系统分析,包括不同形态的锶元素及其同位素地球化学特征的研究。     

预报预警在地质灾害防治中的应用

本文介绍了江西地质灾害气象预报模型的建立、计算方法,以及预警预报在地质灾害防治工作中获得的成功,对类似条件地区的地质灾害防治工作,具有一定的借鉴作用.     

地震灾害下城市供水网络韧性评估及优化研究

为提升城市供水网络应对地震灾害的能力,基于性能响应函数(PRF)方法,引入基础设施网络均衡理论,设计综合考虑城市供水网络物理状态和输送能力的性能时程响应函数,构建贯穿结构和功能双维度的地震灾害下城市供水网络韧性评估方法;从灾害概率、灾害后果、恢复速度、恢复程度等4个关键因素出发,提出城市供水网络网状扩张、管道延性改造、增加恢复资源和提升恢复储备等韧性优化策略;以我国华东某市供水网络为例,定量评估不同优化策略下的韧性提升效果,提出不同决策场景下恢复资源r和恢复储备b的优化配置方法。结果表明:管网延性改造是提升供水网络韧性的有效措施,网状扩张能提升供水网络性能,但对韧性提升无明显作用,网状扩张后要注意增加网络恢复资源和恢复储备。     

贵州烟区生态条件及烤烟质量状况分析

以贵州烟区气候、土壤等生态因素和烤烟外观、物理、化学及感官质量的数据资料为基础,分析了该区9大植烟区域生态条件及烟叶质量状况.结果表明,贵州烟区海拔高度差异悬殊,具有大田期气温适宜,降雨充沛,日照充足,空气相对湿度高等特点.植烟土壤pH值适宜,有机质含量丰富,具有较强的保肥能力;氮素、磷素含量适中,钾素则难以满足烟株需求;土壤交换性钙、镁比值适宜,有效硫含量较高;多数微量元素含量丰富.但有效硼和水溶性氯含量缺乏.烟叶外观质量较好,香型以中间香型和偏清香型为主,香味的亲和力好.燃烧性强,配伍性高,但物理特性和化学成分间的协调性与国外优质烟区相比尚有差距.     

锡林郭勒草原荒漠化气候因素分析

利用1961-2006年锡林郭勒草原年、季、月降水量、平均气温、沙尘暴日数等气象资料,针对锡林郭勒草原荒漠化的现状进行分析。在气候变暖背景下,研究锡林郭勒草原干旱发生的规律及其成因,分析其带给锡林郭勒草原荒漠化的影响,得到以下结论：1．锡林郭勒草原沙化、荒漠化严重,沙化面积位居内蒙古自治区第一,荒漠化面积位居内蒙古自治区第二。2．锡林郭勒草原春夏季降水趋势存在准25a气候振动,年代际变化特征比较突出。干旱发生的频率较高。3．气候变暖给锡林郭勒草原干旱带来较大的影响。4．沙尘暴频发与干旱相互影响,同时对锡林郭勒草原草场生态资源产生一定的影响。5．生态环境恶化,导致大面积土地资源和生物资源丧失。恶化的生态环境已经影响到了锡林郭勒草原社会经济的发展。     

Adapting to climate change: reducing water-related risks in Europe – EU policy and research considerations

Climate change impacts on the hydrological cycle, e.g. leading to changes of precipitation patterns, have been observed over several decades. Higher water temperatures and changes in extremes hydrometeorological events (including floods and droughts) are likely to exacerbate different types of pressures on water resources with possible negative impacts on ecosystems and human health. In addition, sea-level rise is expected to extend areas of salinisation of groundwater and estuaries, resulting in a decrease of freshwater availability for humans and ecosystems in coastal areas. Furthermore, climate-related changes in water quantity and quality are expected to affect food availability, water access and utilisation, especially in arid and semi-arid areas, as well as the operation of water infrastructure (e.g. hydropower, flood defences, and irrigation systems). This paper serves as an introduction to the special issue of Environment Science & Policy dealing with climate change impacts on water-related disasters. It provides a brief background about relevant EU water policies and examples of EU-funded research trends which illustrate on-going efforts to improve understanding and modelling of climate changes related to the hydrological cycles at scales that are relevant to decision making (possibly linked to policy).     

探索新时期中国特色的可持续发展道路

节能减排、应对气候变化和发展绿色、低碳经济已经成为国际上可持续发展新的战略取向,并且正通过生产方式、消费方式、国际合作与贸易方式的转型,以及管理、政策、技术的组合与创新形成新的发展和竞争格局。中国由于长期高速增长和巨大的社会经济规模,不仅使其面临的资源环境问题异常复杂,而且其问题与全球性问题的结构具有一致性。经过过去20年的努力,中国在处理环境与发展关系上取得了很大成绩,同时也面临各种新的挑战。未来5-10年,中国的可持续发展道路应以节能减排和应对气候变化为主线,通过阶段目标和长期目标、效率和总量、计划与市场、制度与技术、国内与国际相结合,寻找系统的解决方案。     

Judgement days: moral attitudes in the wake of local disasters

The deaths and destruction stemming from a disaster are traumatic enough to implicate victims' beliefs not only about disasters themselves but also about other social and political concerns. In particular, disasters are associated with the scapegoating of out‐groups, suggesting that even deep‐rooted moral concerns may shift, at least temporarily, after disasters. This study uses exposure to local natural disaster fatalities to examine moral judgements regarding gays¹ in United States surveys from 1984–98. Survey respondents whose county has suffered a disaster feel appreciably more negatively towards gays, even though most of the disasters in this data set are relatively small and local. The increased antipathy towards gays dissipates within months, and is most marked among those who had, before the disaster, considered themselves more religious. These results raise the possibility that some groups, especially those already marginalised by society, may suffer in a backlash in the wake of a natural disaster.     

Public perceptions and attitudes to biological risks: Saudi Arabia and regional perspectives

Saudi Arabia has experienced frequent occurrences of biological disasters due to a wide range of generator factors, including natural disasters and epidemics. A national survey (n=1,164) was conducted across 13 regions of Saudi Arabia to examine public perceptions to the risk of a biological disaster. The primary results reveal: (a) a degree of knowledge about biological threats such as SARS and H5N1 flu, despite the lack of individual experience with disasters; (b) age, gender, education and faith are positively related to the perception of biological risk; and (c) a number of important community resilience factors exist, including faith, education and willingness. This study concludes that the development of adapted resilience strategies in disaster management can be achieved through public education and training involving cooperation with official organisations and religious authorities in the country to increase public awareness, knowledge and skills in mitigating biological threats.