A Realistic Assessment of the Indicator Potential of Butterflies and Other Charismatic Taxonomic Groups

Abstract:  Charismatic groups of animals and plants often are proposed as sentinels of environmental status and trends. Nevertheless, many claims that a certain taxonomic group can provide more-general information on environmental quality are not evaluated critically. To address several of the many definitions of indicator species, we used butterflies to explore in some detail the attributes that affect implementation of indicators generically. There probably are few individual species, or sets of species, that can serve as scientifically valid, cost-effective measures of the status or trend of an environmental phenomenon that is difficult to measure directly. Nevertheless, there are species with distributions, abundances, or demographic characteristics that are responsive to known environmental changes. In this context, single or multiple species can serve as indicators when targets are defined explicitly, ecological relationships between the target and the putative indicators are well understood, and data are sufficient to differentiate between deterministic and stochastic responses. Although these situations exist, they are less common than might be apparent from an extensive and often confounded literature on indicators. Instead, the public appeal of charismatic groups may be driving much of their acclaim as indicators. The same taxon may not be appropriate for marketing a general conservation mission and for drawing strong inference about specific environmental changes. To provide insights into the progress of conservation efforts, it is essential to identify scientific and practical criteria for selection and application of indicators and then to examine whether a given taxonomic group meets those criteria .     

Exploring the relationship between residential segregation and thermal inequity in 20 U.S. cities

A combination of the urban heat island effect and a rising temperature baseline resulting from global climate change inequitably impacts socially vulnerable populations residing in urban areas. This article examines racial/ethnic and socioeconomic inequities in the spatial distribution of exposure to urban heat in the context of climate justice and residential segregation in the U.S. An urban heat risk index (UHRI) is calculated from measures of land surface temperature, structural density, and vegetation abundance, acquired from summer 2010 remote sensing imagery. Twenty of the largest metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) in the U.S. are selected and analysed using census tract-level socio-demographic data from the U.S. Census. Multilevel modelling is utilised to examine the statistical associations between urban heat, minority status, socioeconomic disadvantage, and MSA-level segregation of racial/ethnic minority groups. Variables representing socioeconomic status (i.e. household income, home ownership, and education level) are consistently and significantly associated with greater urban heat exposure. Minority status and measures of segregation have a significant but varied relationship with urban heat exposure, indicating that there are inconsistent associations with urban heat due to differing social geographies. Urban heat and social vulnerability present a varying landscape of thermal inequity in different metropolitan areas, associated in many cases with residential segregation.     

气候变化背景下四川省单季稻水分盈亏的变化特征

研究利用四川稻区109 个气象台站1961-2010 年的地面气象资料和16 个农业气象站 1981-2010 年的单季稻生育期资料,计算了研究区水稻不同生育期的有效降水量和需水量,并探讨了水稻不同生育阶段内的缺水量和缺水率。结果表明,1961-2010 年四川水稻年均缺水率在孕穗到开花期最高,移栽到孕穗期次之,开花到成熟期最低。近50 a 来,水稻全生育期年有效降水量、需水量和缺水量总体表现为减少趋势,而缺水率在稻区中、西部总体呈升高趋势; 有效降水量在移栽到孕穗期和开花到成熟期以减小为主,而在孕穗到开花期总体呈升高趋势; 需水量在水稻不同生育期内总体均表现为减小趋势;缺水量和缺水率在孕穗到成熟期以减小为主,而在移栽到孕穗期稻区中、西部地区呈升高趋势。研究可为四川稻区的农业用水及合理灌溉提供依据。     

Carbon leakage: Grandfathering as an incentive device to avert firm relocation

Emission allowances are sometimes distributed for free in an early phase of a cap-and-trade scheme to reduce adverse effects on the profitability of firms. This paper investigates whether grandfathering can also be used to avert the relocation of firms to countries with lower carbon prices. We show that under certain conditions, relocation can be averted in the long run, even if the grandfathering scheme is phased out over time and immediate relocation is profitable in its absence. This requires that the permit price triggers sufficient investments into low-carbon technologies or abatement capital that create a lock-in effect which makes relocation unprofitable.     

The optimal time path of clean energy R&D policy when patents have finite lifetime

We study the optimal time path for clean energy innovation policy. In a model with emission reduction through clean energy deployment, and with R&D increasing the overall productivity of clean energy, we describe optimal R&D policies jointly with emission pricing policies. We find that while emission prices can be set at the Pigouvian level independently of innovation policy, the optimal level of R&D subsidies and patent lifetime change with the stages of the climate problem. In the early stages of clean energy development, innovators find it more difficult to capture the social value of their innovations. Thus, for a given finite patent lifetime, optimal clean energy R&D subsidies are initially high, but then fall over time. Alternatively, if research subsidies are kept constant, the optimal patent lifetime should initially be long and fall over time.     

2007—2016年上海市暴雨特征及其与内涝灾情关系分析

利用上海市30个自动气象站2007—2016年逐小时降水数据和上海市应急联动平台110接报内涝灾情数据,分析了近10 a上海市暴雨和内涝灾情特征,并进一步研究致灾暴雨过程与内涝灾情的关系。结果表明：1）上海市暴雨空间分布反映了明显的城市雨岛特征,在水汽充沛的东部沿海和城市化水平较高的中心城区相对容易出现极端雨强;2）暴雨内涝灾情年变化较大,月分布呈单峰型,日分布呈双峰型,且内涝灾情数在中心城区及各区中心较为密集,反映了承灾体的空间分布特征;3）暴雨过程对内涝灾情的贡献作用明显,内涝灾情数与暴雨过程雨量、逐小时最大雨量和最大雨强显著相关,与持续时间和影响站次低度相关;4）逐小时最大雨量等于过程雨量且<60 mm时,内涝灾情数基本在20次以下,随着过程雨量增加,特别是过程雨量>100 mm时,灾情数急剧增加。暴雨特征与内涝灾情关系研究对于暴雨内涝的预报、预警和服务具有重要意义。     

基于多级模糊数学的矿山地质灾害指标体系设计

当前矿山地质灾害指标较为固定,缺少灵活性,较为死板。将多级模糊数学理论应用到金属矿山地质灾害指标体系设计中。结合金属矿山地质灾害不确定性的特征,设计多级模糊模型,进行主客观定权。在上述基础上,将设计的模型应用到灾害评估指标体系设计中。实验结果表明,该模型能够有效提高评估的灵活性,结果也更为准确。     

Towards a complex model of disaster behaviour

This paper outlines why a move towards a complex adaptive systems model of behaviour is required if the goal is to generate better understanding of how individuals and groups interact with their environment in a disaster setting. To accomplish this objective, a bridge must be built between the broader social sciences and behavioural economics to incorporate discipline‐specific insights that are needed to move towards complexity. This is only possible through a deeper understanding of behaviour and how the environment in which they occur can influence actions. It is then that one can counteract the poor behavioural predictions, flawed policies based on myth, inefficient design, and suboptimal outcomes that have flourished in the absence of a complex adaptive systems model. This paper provides a conceptual framework that draws on concepts from across the natural and social sciences, such as behavioural economics, endocrinology, psychology, sociobiology, and sociology in order to build an interactive theory of disaster behaviour.     

Building resilience by challenging social norms: integrating a transformative approach within the BRACED consortia

Resilience is a complex phenomenon whereby a multitude of social and environmental factors, including gender, combine to shape the ways that shocks affect people. Looking at two BRACED (Building Resilience and Adaptation to Climate Extremes and Disasters) projects, in Burkina Faso and in Ethiopia, this article uses a desk review and primary data from partners and people at risk to explore how a gender‐transformative approach can be an integral part of resilience‐building projects, particularly those implemented by multi‐stakeholder consortia. It also suggests ways to incorporate a stronger gender component in similar future projects. The article argues that donors and programme managers must provide clear principles and guidelines for achieving gender equity within resilience‐building efforts. However, these must allow flexibility to adapt to norms, needs and resources as determined by implementing partners. The right balance can be achieved by facilitating spaces for individual and collective goal‐setting; assessing current capacity and trajectories; and lesson‐sharing as an iterative process for institutional learning.