洞穴沉积物的环境记录研究进展

云贵高原有着独特的地理环境 ,其气候变迁应与青藏高原这一特殊的高海拔、低纬度的隆升地块有重要关系。洞穴化学沉积物是响应环境变化的地质记录档案 ,通过对它蕴藏的古气候信息的解译 ,可以反演过去的气候变化。本文侧重介绍了洞穴次生化学沉积物研究近年来取得的最新成果及其研究现状 ,并利用其在古环境研究中的优点 ,来讨论青藏高原的抬升对西南地区环境变化产生的屏蔽效应的可能性。     

Evaluation of dust activity and climate effects in North China

TOMS/Al data with nearly 20 years are utilized in the paper to evaluate dust activities in North China. Combined with simultaneous NCEP reanalysis climate data, climate effects on dust activities are assessed. The results showed that the whole North China suffers impact by dust aerosols, with three centers standing out in TOMS/Al spring average map that are western three basins, which are characterized by lower annual precipitation and elevation. Gobi deserts in Mongolia Plateau do not attain higher TOMS/AI value due to cloud contamination and relative higher elevation. Spring is the season with the highest TOMS dust aerosol index; within the western three basins, high dust aerosol index appears in both spring and summer, especially in Tarim Basin. Wind speed in spring and precipitation in previous rainy season play important roles in controlling dust activities, higher wind speed and less precipitation than the normal are in favor of dust activities in spring. Temperature in spring and previous winter also affect dust activity to a certain extent, but with contrary spatial distribution. Temperature in winter exert effect principally in west part, contrarily, temperature effect in spring is mainly shown in east part. Both of them have negative correlation with dust activity.     

Forest Fires and Climate Change in the 21ST Century

Fire is the major stand-renewing disturbance in the circumboreal forest. Weather and climate are the most important factors influencing fire activity and these factors are changing due to human-caused climate change. This paper discusses and synthesises the current state of fire and climate change research and the potential direction for future studies on fire and climate change. In the future, under a warmer climate, we expect more severe fire weather, more area burned, more ignitions and a longer fire season. Although there will be large spatial and temporal variation in the fire activity response to climate change. This field of research allows us to better understand the interactions and feedbacks between fire, climate, vegetation and humans and to identify vulnerable regions. Lastly, projections of fire activity for this century can be used to explore options for mitigation and adaptation.     

Carbon Offset Potentials of Four Alternative Forest Management Strategies in Canada: A Simulation Study

Using an Integrated TerrestrialEcosystem C-budget model (InTEC), we simulated thecarbon (C) offset potentials of four alternativeforest management strategies in Canada: afforestation,reforestation, nitrogen (N) fertilization, andsubstitution of fossil fuel with wood, under differentclimatic and disturbance scenarios. C offset potentialis defined as additional C uptake by forest ecosystemsor reduced fossil C emissions when a strategy isimplemented to the theoretical maximum possibleextent. The simulations provided the followingestimated gains from management: (1) Afforesting allthe estimated 7.2 Mha of marginal agricultural landand urban areas in 1999 would create an average Coffset potential of 8 Tg C y^-1 during 1999–2100,at a cost of 3.4 Tg fossil C emission in 1999. (2)Prompt reforestation of all forest lands disturbed inthe previous year during 1999–2100 would produce anaverage C offset potential of 57 Tg C y^-1 forthis period, at a cost of 1.33 Tg C y^-1. (3)Application of N fertilization (at the low rate of 5kg N ha^-1 y^-1) to the 125 Mha ofsemi-mature forest during 1999–2100 would create anaverage C offset of 58 Tg C y^-1 for this period,at a cost of 0.24 Tg C y^-1. (4) Increasingforest harvesting by 20% above current average ratesduring 1999–2100, and using the extra wood products tosubstitute for fossil energy would reduce averageemissions by 11 Tg C y^-1, at a cost of 0.54 TgC y^-1. If implemented to the maximum extent, thecombined C offset potential of all four strategieswould be 2–7 times the GHG emission reductionsprojected for the National Action Plan for ClimateChange (NAPCC) initiatives during 2000–2020, and anorder of magnitude larger than the projected increasein C uptake by Canada's agricultural soils due toimproved agricultural practices during 2000–2010.     

地质灾害生命损失灾情分析与对策

地质灾害每年造成最大可能死亡1500－2000人，除内蒙古，天津市，江苏省，上海市，香港，澳门以外，其余28个省（市，区）每年因地灾害均有不同程度的人员伤亡，据统计，全国实际发生地质灾害死亡人数：1995年死亡1230人，1996年死亡51人，1997年死亡108人，1998年死亡532人，2000年死亡142人（伤26975人）。各级政府必须加强地质灾害防治，保障人民群众生命财产的安全。（1）地质灾害防治，政府负总责，建立和完善领导责任制。（2）制定地质灾害防治规划，实施规划管理，分期分批治理。（3）将地质灾害防治资金列入预算，并建立多元化投资机制。（4）工程建设必须进行地质灾害危险性评估，发生地质灾害造成重大损失的，追究地方政府主要领导和有关部门负责人的责任。     

农业对小冰期和现代我国七月气候的影响模拟

小冰期是数千年来最引人注目的一个冷期,也是近百年变暖的直接历史背景,该时期我国农业扩展范围已与现代相差无几。自然植被被农业植被替换,对区域水循环和气候变化都产生影响。比较冷暖时期该类影响之差别,有利于认识土地覆盖与气候的联系。文中利用全球和区域气候模式,考察小冰期和现代两种全球背景下我国区域土地覆盖变化对七月平均气候状况的影响。结果表明：小冰期夏季偏冷地区主要在北方,农业具有减缓小冰期大尺度降温的效应,而在较温暖且温度变化较小的华南和华中地区,农业则起一定的降温效应；农业对现代气候下的降水影响不大,但在小冰期背景下却导致降水减少     

Genetic and Environmental Effects Assessment in Scots Pine Provenances Planted in Central Siberia

Scots pine provenance trials were established in 1964 in forest-steppe and in 1974 in southern taiga zones of Central Siberia from seeds collected over whole Russia. Tree-ring characteristics (radial growth and density chronologies) from 12 and 16 provenances planted in those plantations were measured densitometrically. Tree-ring analysis revealed a retention of a genetically fixed response to climatic factors proper to pines' origin. Trees from higher latitudes keep the orientation towards accelerated growth at the beginning of a growing season, which is followed by a rapid transition to formation of latewood cells and deceleration of growth earlier, than in medium-latitude trees. Main climatic factors controlling tree-rings formation differed slightly between different provenances within plantations. Genetically fixed ability of the provenances are not great (less than 15%), that proves high adaptability of pines to abrupt climatic change. Tree-ring formation of Scots pine provenances is mainly determined by the environmental factors.     

CANADA'S EXPERIENCE IN DEVELOPING A NATIONAL DISASTER MITIGATION STRATEGY: A DELIBERATIVE DIALOGUE APPROACH

Canada is vulnerable to a wide range of natural and human-induced disasters. Recent experience with major natural disasters demonstrated that more needs to be done to protect Canadians from the impacts of future disasters. The Government of Canada, through the Department of Public Safety and Emergency Preparedness Canada, has conducted consultations with provinces, territories and stakeholders to develop a national disaster mitigation strategy (NDMS) aimed at enhancing Canada's capacity to prevent disasters before they occur and promoting the development of disaster-resilient communities. This paper provides an overview of Canada's emergency management and hazards context. It reports on the preliminary findings of consultations with stakeholders and evaluates the usefulness of the deliberative dialogue methodology that was used to facilitate the consultations. Examples that are illustrative of recent Canadian efforts on disaster mitigation and the challenges respecting the development and future implementation of a NDMS are also discussed.     

黄土高原西部地区林业气候动态聚类分析

杨树是黄土高原的主要树种之一。本文根据阴山东段不同立地条件下25年生的四种杨树解析木生长量资料,与该地区同时期气候因素进行了关联分析,按关联度大小,选取了八个气候因素作为聚类因子,再将关联度归一化,求得各因子的权重,表示各气候因素对树木生长作用的大小。最后根据黄土高原西部68个气象站1951—1980年的气候资料,应用动态聚类分析法,把黄土高原西部地区划分成几个不同类型林业气候区,区划结果与实际考察基本相符合。     

Forest land use change in the philippines and climate change mitigation

Tropical forests in countries like thePhilippines are important sources and sinks of carbon(C). The paper analyzes the contribution of Philippineforests in climate change mitigation. Since the 1500s,deforestation of 20.9 M ha (10⁶ ha) of Philippineforests contributed 3.7 Pg (10¹⁵ g) of C to theatmosphere of which 2.6 Pg were released this century. At present, forest land uses store 1091 Tg(10¹² g) of C and sequester 30.5 Tg C/yr whilereleasing 11.4 Tg C/yr through deforestation andharvesting. In the year 2015, it is expected that thetotal C storage will decline by 8% (1005 Tg) andtotal rate of C sequestration will increase by 17%(35.5 Tg/yr). This trend is due to the decline innatural forest area accompanied by an increase intree plantation area. We have shown that uncertaintyin national C estimates still exists because they arereadily affected by the source of biomass and Cdensity data. Philippine forests can act as C sink by:conserving existing C sinks, expanding C stocks, andsubstituting wood products for fossil fuels. Here weanalyze the possible implications of the provisions ofthe Kyoto Protocol to Philippine forests. Finally, wepresent current research and development efforts ontropical forests and climate change in the Philippinesto improve assessments of their role in the nations Cbudgets.