东北地区典型农区土地利用变化对农业扩张和气候变化的响应研究

大规模的农业扩张和全球气候变化导致东北地区发生剧烈的土地利用/土地覆盖变化。本研究分析了研究区1976—2008年的土地利用变化和生长季各月气温的变化趋势,并结合农业扩张程度,探究LUCC对农业扩张和气候变化的响应,为指导农业发展规划和保障国家粮食安全提供理论依据。结果表明,1976—2008年农田面积逐步增加,生长季气温一直呈上升趋势。1976—2001年生长季气温的上升趋势不稳定,气温变化程度较大;2001—2008年,农业扩张放缓,生长季气温上升趋势显著,且上升趋势一直增加,气温变化比上一时期更稳定;且这两个时期农业扩张和气候变化对土地利用强度的影响在南北和东西方向上均存在明显差异。     

Making cities resilient to climate change: identifying “win–win” interventions

Urbanisation is truly a global phenomenon. Starting at 39% in 1980, the urbanisation level rose to 52% in 2011. Ongoing rapid urbanisation has led to increase in urban greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Urban climate change risks have also increased with increase in climate-induced extreme weather events and more low-income urban dwellers living in climate sensitive locations. Despite increased emissions, including GHGs and heightened climate change vulnerability, climate mitigation and adaptation actions are rare in the cities of developing countries. Cities are overwhelmed with worsening congestion, air pollution, crime, waste management, and unemployment problems. Lack of resources and capacity constraints are other factors that discourage cities from embarking on climate change mitigation and adaptation pathways. Given the multitude of problems faced, there is simply no appetite for stand-alone urban climate change mitigation and adaptation policies and programmes. Urban mitigation and adaptation goals will have to be achieved as co-benefits of interventions targeted at solving pressing urban problems and challenges. The paper identifies administratively simple urban interventions that can help cities solve some of their pressing service delivery and urban environmental problems, while simultaneously mitigating rising urban GHG emissions and vulnerability to climate change.     

The climate adaptation imperative: local choices targeting global problems?

When confronted with the demands of global climate change, what causes some policy-makers to move the climate adaptation agenda forward in their communities, while others seemingly get little accomplished? To answer this question, we first discuss work on policy-drivers in a coupled human–natural systemic context. This summary review of past research helps us develop a set of competing and complementary explanations for why some communities aggressively pursue climate adaptation policies, while others do less. Following the discussion of policy-drivers, we then undertake an aggregate-level analysis of data collected across the 169 towns in Connecticut regarding climate adaptation, thus linking policy to its fundamental global cause. The quantitative data are augmented with interview data from policy-makers and activists from around the New England region.     

Collaborative approaches to local climate change and clean energy initiatives in the USA and England

This paper analyses how 10 localities in the USA and England, recognised as leaders in clean energy and climate action, have used collaborative approaches to develop local climate change plans and energy conservation, efficiency, and renewable energy initiatives. It examines these planning and policy-making processes in the context of Margerum's [2008. A typology of collaboration efforts in environmental management. Environmental Management, 41 (4), 487–500] typology of “action”, “organizational”, and “policy-level” collaborations, as well as Gray's [1989. Collaborating: finding common ground for multiparty problems. San Francisco: Jossey-Bass] classification of collaboration in the “problem-setting”, “direction-setting”, and “implementation” phases. We conducted interviews with local elected officials, municipal staff, energy professionals, and citizen volunteers in each community, supplemented with an analysis of their adopted energy, climate change, and land-use plans. We find that despite the different government structures and political contexts between the two countries, there was a surprising amount of commonality in how the case study localities used collaborative planning to develop local climate plans and clean energy initiatives. These processes were most often initiated by local elected officials and/or high-level staff members, and then carried out in collaboration with local third-sector organisations and other community stakeholders. In the USA, collaboration was strongest at the policy level and in the direction-setting phase, with the distinguishing feature that citizen advisory boards or stakeholder working groups often took a more active role in shaping local plans and policies. The English localities had some of those same types of collaborations, but were more likely to also employ action collaboration, in the implementation phase, in which third-sector organisations coordinated with the locality to directly provide clean energy services.     

Think globally,act locally: neighbourhood pollution and the future of the earth

Each year governments and industry around the globe spend billions of dollars in search of treatments and cures for diseases that shorten lives, which often means gadgets, implants, radiation and pills. These “cures”, do not get to the root of the problem. Perhaps it is time for us to adjust our thinking to be more proactive instead of reactive in public health. Perhaps we need to consider confronting environmental pollution of air, soil and water at a local level. As the Physicians for Social Responsibility point out, we should be “preventing what we cannot cure”. One such preventive measure is ensuring that our communities, including our poor inner-city neighbourhoods, enjoy a clean environment. We challenge local and national policy-makers to respond to the global call and to take action to address environmental toxins; to take local action to ameliorate the pollution of the air, water and soil in so many of our nation’s neighbourhoods. A person’s neighbourhood, and the proximity of dangerous environmental contaminants within it, is a powerful predictor of how long s/he will live. While situations like the poisoning of the water in Flint, Michigan have gotten some attention, they are generally treated as the exception rather than a reflection of real environmental hazards that exist in the west. Moreover we wonder why more endemic issues of neighbourhood environmental contamination that shorten human lives are not a priority for local action or that it is not linked to disproportionate production of greenhouse gases that cause climate change/warming/chaos.     

Analysis of long-term changes in the dates of seasonal phenomena in plants and insects of the Il’men Reserve as related to climatic factors

The results of monitoring the dates of the onset of flowering and leaf budding in eight herbaceous and woody plant species and the first appearance of three insect species in the Il’men Reserve (1972–2005) were processed by means of regression and correlation analyses. No significant changes in test parameters were revealed in the majority of these species. Only two early spring plants, coltsfoot (Tussilago farfara L.) and goat willow (Salix caprea L.), showed a weak tendency toward earlier flowering in the 1980s and 1990s. This is explained primarily by the absence of any significant trends in spring and summer air temperatures in the study region over the observation period. On the other hand, interannual fluctuations in the dates of plant flowering and insect appearance were well manifested not only in early spring but also in late-spring species. These fluctuations proved to depend largely on spring temperatures: in years with early and warm springs, flowering and leaf budding in plants and the appearance of first individuals in insects were recorded on significantly earlier dates.     

Field Evaluation of DRAINMOD 5.1 Under a Cold Climate: Simulation of Daily Midspan Water Table Depths and Drain Outflows1

Abstract: The hydrologic performance of DRAINMOD 5.1 was assessed for the southern Quebec region considering freezing/thawing conditions. A tile drained agricultural field in the Pike River watershed was instrumented to measure tile drainage volumes. The model was calibrated using water table depth and subsurface flow data over a two‐year period, while another two‐year dataset served to validate the model. DRAINMOD 5.1 accurately simulated the timing and magnitude of subsurface drainage events. The model also simulated the pattern of water table fluctuations with a good degree of accuracy. The R² between the observed and simulated daily WTD for calibration was >0.78, and that for validation was 0.93. The corresponding coefficients of efficiency (E) were >0.74 and 0.31. The R² and E values for calibration/validation of subsurface flow were 0.73/0.48 and 0.72/0.40, respectively. DRAINMOD simulated monthly subsurface flow quite accurately (E > 0.82 and R² > 0.84). The model precisely simulated daily/monthly drain flow over the entire year, including the winter months. Thus DRAINMOD 5.1 performed well in simulating the hydrology of a cold region.     

Modeling the Hydrology of Climate Change in California’s Sierra Nevada for Subwatershed Scale Adaptation1

Young, Charles A., Marisa I. Escobar‐Arias, Martha Fernandes, Brian Joyce, Michael Kiparsky, Jeffrey F. Mount, Vishal K. Mehta, David Purkey, Joshua H. Viers, and David Yates, 2009. Modeling the Hydrology of Climate Change in California’s Sierra Nevada for Subwatershed Scale Adaptation. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 45(6):1409‐1423. Abstract: The rainfall‐runoff model presented in this study represents the hydrology of 15 major watersheds of the Sierra Nevada in California as the backbone of a planning tool for water resources analysis including climate change studies. Our model implementation documents potential changes in hydrologic metrics such as snowpack and the initiation of snowmelt at a finer resolution than previous studies, in accordance with the needs of watershed‐level planning decisions. Calibration was performed with a sequence of steps focusing sequentially on parameters of land cover, snow accumulation and melt, and water capacity and hydraulic conductivity of soil horizons. An assessment of the calibrated streamflows using goodness of fit statistics indicate that the model robustly represents major features of weekly average flows of the historical 1980‐2001 time series. Runs of the model for climate warming scenarios with fixed increases of 2°C, 4°C, and 6°C for the spatial domain were used to analyze changes in snow accumulation and runoff timing. The results indicated a reduction in snowmelt volume that was largest in the 1,750‐2,750 m elevation range. In addition, the runoff center of mass shifted to earlier dates and this shift was non‐uniformly distributed throughout the Sierra Nevada. Because the hydrologic model presented here is nested within a water resources planning system, future research can focus on the management and adaptation of the water resources system in the context of climate change.     

What is most important for safety climate: The company belonging or the local working environment? – A study from the Norwegian offshore industry

Obtaining knowledge about factors affecting health, safety and environment (HSE) is of major interest to the petroleum industry, but there is currently a severe shortage of relevant studies. The aim of this study was to examine the relative influence of offshore installation (local working environment) and company belonging on employees’ opinions concerning occupational health and safety. We analyzed data from a safety climate survey answered by 4479 Norwegian offshore petroleum employees in 2005 on the dimensions “Safety prioritisation”, “Safety management and involvement”, “Safety versus production”, “Individual motivation”, “System comprehension” and “Competence” using one way analysis of variance (ANOVA), effect size and mixed model. The companies differed significantly for “Safety prioritisation”, “Safety versus production”, “Individual motivation”, “System comprehension” and “Competence”. The local offshore installation explained more of the safety climate than the company they were employed in or worked for did.     

国外学术界对《巴黎协定》的评价及履约前景分析

2016年《巴黎协定》的正式生效是全球环境治理的重要里程碑,是国际社会在应对气候变化的艰难进程中迈出的重要一步,标志着全球环境治理从此进入履约阶段。本文基于宾夕法尼亚大学智库与公民社会项目(TTCSP)公布的《2015年全球智库指数报告》,选取其中排名前十位的国际环境智库的研究报告和环境领域中代表性学者的相关论文,对国外学术界有关《巴黎协定》履约前景的分析进行了系统梳理,并对此做出简要评述。文章在肯定《巴黎协定》有力推进国际气候治理进程的同时,也指出在新的国际形势之下,尤其是在英国正式启动脱欧进程和特朗普新任美国总统后,其履约过程中更是存在着协定之内和协定之外的众多挑战和不确定性,本文的基本结论如下:首先,协定之内面临着协定缔约方国内批准程序上的挑战;国家自主贡献的实现与发展中国家能力建设;2℃温升目标的实现前景;审评和盘点的效力评估;碳市场机制能否有效运行。其次,协定之外面临着英国脱欧的潜在气候政策变化及影响;美国气候政策的可能变化及其影响。基于对以上智库报告和相关研究论文的分析,笔者对《巴黎协定》的履约前景得出几点看法:(1)正视国际气候合作的机遇与挑战;(2)对具体议题的落实需充满信心;(3)理性冷静看待英美气候政策的可能变化;(4)鼓励环境类国际组织之外的非国家行为体展开通力合作。对此,我们应正视履约中的挑战与不确定性,做好充分的应对之策,确保履约进程的顺利完成。总之,《巴黎协定》的履约前景不容乐观,国际社会任重道远。