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971.
AARON S. RUESCH CHRISTIAN E. TORGERSEN JOSHUA J. LAWLER JULIAN D. OLDEN ERIN E. PETERSON CAROL J. VOLK DAVID J. LAWRENCE 《Conservation biology》2012,26(5):873-882
Abstract: Climate change will likely have profound effects on cold‐water species of freshwater fishes. As temperatures rise, cold‐water fish distributions may shift and contract in response. Predicting the effects of projected stream warming in stream networks is complicated by the generally poor correlation between water temperature and air temperature. Spatial dependencies in stream networks are complex because the geography of stream processes is governed by dimensions of flow direction and network structure. Therefore, forecasting climate‐driven range shifts of stream biota has lagged behind similar terrestrial modeling efforts. We predicted climate‐induced changes in summer thermal habitat for 3 cold‐water fish species—juvenile Chinook salmon, rainbow trout, and bull trout (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha, O. mykiss, and Salvelinus confluentus, respectively)—in the John Day River basin, northwestern United States. We used a spatially explicit statistical model designed to predict water temperature in stream networks on the basis of flow and spatial connectivity. The spatial distribution of stream temperature extremes during summers from 1993 through 2009 was largely governed by solar radiation and interannual extremes of air temperature. For a moderate climate change scenario, estimated declines by 2100 in the volume of habitat for Chinook salmon, rainbow trout, and bull trout were 69–95%, 51–87%, and 86–100%, respectively. Although some restoration strategies may be able to offset these projected effects, such forecasts point to how and where restoration and management efforts might focus. 相似文献
972.
Heejun Chang Barry M. Evans David R. Easterling 《Journal of the American Water Resources Association》2001,37(4):973-985
ABSTRACT: This study assesses the potential impact of climate change on stream flow and nutrient loading in six watersheds of the Susquehanna River Basin using the Generalized Watershed Loading Function (GWLF). The model was used to simulate changes in stream flow and nutrient loads under a transient climate change scenario for each watershed. Under an assumption of no change in land cover and land management, the model was used to predict monthly changes in stream flow and nutrient loads for future climate conditions. Mean annual stream flow and nutrient loads increased for most watersheds, but decreased in one watershed that was intensively cultivated. Nutrient loading slightly decreased in April and late summer for several watersheds as a result of early snowmelt and increasing evapotranspiration. Spatial and temporal variability of stream flow and nutrient loads under the transient climate scenario indicates that different approaches for future water resource management may be useful. 相似文献
973.
Ashutosh S. Limaye T Matthew Boyington James F Cruise Anupama Bulusu Elizabeth Brown 《Journal of the American Water Resources Association》2001,37(3):709-722
ABSTRACT: A macroscale hydrologic model is developed for regional climate assessment studies under way in the southeastern United States. The hydrologic modeling strategy is developed to optimize spatial representation of basin characteristics while maximizing computational efficiency. The model employs the “grouped response unit” methodology, which follows the natural drainage pattern of the area. First order streams are delineated and their surface characteristics are tested so that areas with statistically similar characteristics can be combined into larger computational zones for modeling purposes. Hydrologic response units (HRU) are identified within the modeling units and a simple three‐layer water balance model, Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), is executed for each HRU. The runoff values are then convoluted using a triangular unit hydrograph and routed by Muskingum‐Cunge method. The methodology is shown to produce accurate results relative to other studies, when compared to observations. The model is used to evaluate the potential error in hydrologic assessments when using GCM predictions as climatic input in a rainfall‐runoff dominated environment. In such areas, the results from this study, although limited in temporal and spatial scope, appear to imply that use of GCM climate predictions in short term quantitative analyses studies in rainfall‐runoff dominated environments should proceed with caution. 相似文献
974.
Cristina A. Mullin Christine J. Kirchhoff 《Journal of the American Water Resources Association》2019,55(4):906-919
We assess adaptive capacity and adaptive management as measures of wastewater (WW) system resiliency using data from interviews with WW system managers (hereafter managers) impacted by past storms. Results suggest the most resilient WW systems are those with high adaptive capacities that employ an adaptive management approach to make ongoing adaptation investments over time. Greater amounts of generic adaptive capacities (i.e., skilled staff and good leadership) help smooth both day‐to‐day and emergency operations and provide a foundation for adaptive management. In turn, adaptive management helps managers both build more generic adaptive capacities, and develop and employ greater amounts and diversity of specific adaptive capacities (i.e., soft and/or hard adaptations) that are especially important for enhancing and sustaining resiliency. Adaptive management also enables managers to better understand their system's vulnerabilities, how those vulnerabilities change over time, and what specific actions may reduce those vulnerabilities. Finally, our work suggests WW system resilience critically depends on the capacities of the human systems for building resilience as much as or more so than relying only on physical infrastructure resilience. Our work contributes to filling an important gap in the literature by advancing our understanding of the human dimensions of infrastructure resilience and has practical implications for advancing resilience in the WW sector. 相似文献
975.
Abstract: River‐dwelling fish, such as European graylings (Thymallus thymallus), are susceptible to changes in climate because they can often not avoid suboptimal temperatures, especially during early developmental stages. We analyzed data collected in a 62‐year‐long (1948–2009) population monitoring program. Male and female graylings were sampled about three times/week during the yearly spawning season in order to follow the development of the population. The occurrence of females bearing ripe eggs was used to approximate the timing of each spawning season. In the last years of the study, spawning season was more than 3 weeks earlier than in the first years. This shift was linked to increasing water temperatures as recorded over the last 39 years with a temperature logger at the spawning site. In early spring water temperatures rose more slowly than in later spring. Thus, embryos and larvae were exposed to increasingly colder water at a stage that is critical for sex determination and pathogen resistance in other salmonids. In summer, however, fry were exposed to increasingly warmer temperatures. The changes in water temperatures that we found embryos, larvae, and fry were exposed to could be contributing to the decline in abundance that has occurred over the last 30–40 years. 相似文献
976.
P. Zanis E. Katragkou I. Tegoulias A. Poupkou D. Melas P. Huszar F. Giorgi 《Atmospheric environment (Oxford, England : 1994)》2011,45(36):6489-6500
This study aims to evaluate near surface ozone simulated with the modelling system RegCM3/CAMx against ozone measurements from the EMEP database for the recent decade 1991–2000. The RegCM3/CAMx simulations were performed on a 50 km × 50 km grid over Europe driven either by ERA-40 reanalysis (hereafter referred as ERA simulation) or the global circulation model (GCM) ECHAM5 (hereafter referred as ECHAM simulation). A set of statistical metrics is used for the model evaluation, including temporal correlation coefficient, the ratio of the standard deviations and the bias of simulated versus observed values. Overall, a good agreement is found for both ERA and ECHAM simulations at the majority of the selected EMEP stations in all metrics throughout the year based either on monthly or daily ozone values. Based on these results, it is assessed that the modelling system RegCM3/CAMx is suitable to be used for present and future regional climate-air quality simulations with emphasis on near surface ozone. The ERA simulations reproduce more accurately the observed ozone values in comparison to ECHAM simulations because the meteorology of the ERA experiment is closer to real atmospheric conditions than the GCM based experiment. On a seasonal basis, both ERA and ECHAM simulations exhibit a seasonally dependent bias, with winter and spring ozone values being generally under-estimated by the model and summer and autumn values being slightly overestimated. This seasonally dependent bias is also evident from median and peak midday ozone values. However, the highest observed midday ozone peaks in summer, with values higher than 80 ppbv, could not be captured either by ERA or ECHAM simulations. An analysis of day-time and night-time ERA and ECHAM modelled ozone values shows that CAMx performs better during the day-time. 相似文献
977.
Mats Braun 《环境政策》2019,28(6):1105-1123
ABSTRACTThe East-West divide within the EU over climate policy has been frequently discussed. There is a tendency in the literature to focus on Poland and ignore the other countries in the central and eastern European region. Here it is argued that the institutionalised cooperation between the four countries in the Visegrad Group (the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland and Slovakia) provides a crucial component for an understanding of how the participating countries approach EU climate negotiations. Here it is suggested that the group is important as a bargaining coalition but also as a reference point for the development of shared ‘Visegrad’ norms in the field. This is based on a case study of the Czech Republic’s approach to the 2014 negotiations on the 2030 climate and energy framework and the country’s cooperation with the other Visegrad countries on the issue. 相似文献
978.
Sara H. Williams Sarah A. Scriven David F. R. P. Burslem Jane K. Hill Glen Reynolds Agnes L. Agama Frederick Kugan Colin R. Maycock Eyen Khoo Alexander Y. L. Hastie John B. Sugau Reuben Nilus Joan T. Pereira Sandy L. T. Tsen Leung Y. Lee Suzika Juiling Jenny A. Hodgson Lydia E. S. Cole Gregory P. Asner Luke J. Evans Jedediah F. Brodie 《Conservation biology》2020,34(4):934-942
Conservation planning tends to focus on protecting species’ ranges or landscape connectivity but seldom both—particularly in the case of diverse taxonomic assemblages and multiple planning goals. Therefore, information on potential trade-offs between maintaining landscape connectivity and achieving other conservation objectives is lacking. We developed an optimization approach to prioritize the maximal protection of species’ ranges, ecosystem types, and forest carbon stocks, while also including habitat connectivity for range-shifting species and dispersal corridors to link protected area. We applied our approach to Sabah, Malaysia, where the state government mandated an increase in protected-area coverage of approximately 305,000 ha but did not specify where new protected areas should be. Compared with a conservation planning approach that did not incorporate the 2 connectivity features, our approach increased the protection of dispersal corridors and elevational connectivity by 13% and 21%, respectively. Coverage of vertebrate and plant species’ ranges and forest types were the same whether connectivity was included or excluded. Our approach protected 2% less forest carbon and 3% less butterfly range than when connectivity features were not included. Hence, the inclusion of connectivity into conservation planning can generate large increases in the protection of landscape connectivity with minimal loss of representation of other conservation targets. 相似文献
979.
Janna L. Shymko Annemieke Farenhorst Francis Zvomuya 《Journal of environmental science and health. Part. B》2013,48(4):301-312
The herbicide 2,4-D [2,4-(dichlorophenoxy) acetic acid] is a widely used broadleaf control agent in cereal production systems. Although 2,4-D soil-residual activity (half-lives) are typicaly less than 10 days, this herbicide also has as a short-term leaching potential due to its relatively weak retention by soil constituents. Herbicide residual effects and leaching are influenced by environmental variables such as soil moisture and temperature. The objective of this study was to determine impacts of these environmental variables on the magnitude and extent of 2,4-D mineralization in a cultivated undulating Manitoba prairie landscape. Microcosm incubation experiments were utilized to assess 2,4-D half-lives and total mineralization using a 4 × 4 × 3 × 2 factorial design (with soil temperature at 4 levels: 5, 10, 20 and 40°C; soil moisture at 4 levels: 60, 85, 110, 135 % of field capacity; slope position at 3 levels: upper-, mid- and lower-slopes; and soil depth at 2 levels: 0–5 cm and 5–15 cm). Half-lives (t1/2) varied from 3 days to 51 days with the total 2,4-D mineralization (M T ) ranging from 5.8 to 50.9 %. The four-way interaction (temperature × moisture × slope × depth) significantly (p< 0.001) influenced both t1/2 and M T. Second-order polynomial equations best described the relations of temperature with t1/2 and MT as was expected from a biological system. However, the interaction and variability of t1/2 and MT among different temperatures, soil moistures, slope positions, and soil depth combinations indicates that the complex nature of these interacting factors should be considered when applying 2,4-D in agricultural fields and in utilizing these parameters in pesticide fate models. 相似文献
980.
Tanya Cáceres Mallavarapu Megharaj Ravi Naidu 《Journal of environmental science and health. Part. B》2013,48(4):314-322
The persistence of fenamiphos (nematicide) in five soils collected from different geographical regions such as Australia, Ecuador and India under three temperature regimes (18, 25 and 37°C) simulating typical environmental conditions was studied. The effect of soil properties (soil pH, temperature and microbial biomass) on the degradation of fenamiphos was determined. The rate of degradation increased with increase in temperature. Fenamiphos degradation was higher at 37°C than at 25 and 18°C (except under alkaline pH). The degradation pathway differed in different soils. Fenamiphos sulfoxide (FSO) was identified as the major degradation product in all the soils. Fenamiphos sulfone (FSO2), and the corresponding phenols: fenamiphos phenol (FP), fenamiphos sulfoxide phenol (FSOP) and fenamiphos sulfone phenol (FSO2P) were also detected. The degradation of fenamiphos was faster in the alkaline soils, followed by neutral and acidic soils. Under sterile conditions, the dissipation of the pesticide was slower than in the non-sterile soils suggesting microbial role in the pesticide degradation. The generation of new knowledge on fenamiphos degradation patterns under different environmental conditions is important to achieve better pesticide risk management. 相似文献