基于城乡统筹的公共安全规划研究——以长株潭城市群为例

以长株潭城市群公共安全规划为研究对象,本着"资源节约、环境友好"两型社会建设的要求,从保护人的安全出发,以实现城乡统筹的风险控制和风险减缓设施建设。长株潭城乡公共安全,规划包括:重大危险源安全规划编制、开敞空间及综合避灾场地规划以及区域综合防灾规划3个方面,强调对城乡统筹的安全内容;该安全规划既是政治经济发展的战略要求,也是政府职能部门的管理要害,还是城乡居民基本的生存保障,具有前瞻性,以完善技术设计来降低风险,同时在管理上加强协调性和拓展性。     

公共安全科技及其学科分类的九宫格模型

为促进公共安全科技及其学科的可持续发展,很有必要对其科技和学科进行科学分类。本文从科学学的视角,依据大交叉综合学科由学科科学、专业科学和应用科学上中下游三层次组成的理论,构建一个能够简洁表达公共安全科技及其学科分类的九宫格模型,该模型使庞大的公共安全科技及其学科有了相对明确的层次和类型,可以表征公共安全的主体科技及其学科、相邻科技及其学科和外延科技及其学科之间的关系,也可以推广应用到公共管理、公共卫生、应急等领域的科技及其学科的分类。研究结果表明,该模型具有普适性价值,可为未来公共安全科技及其学科的有序发展提供理论参考。     

1种城市燃气管道风险评估模型及其应用研究

为科学评估燃气管道在复杂且敏感的城市环境中个人风险可接受情况,促进城市和谐稳定。以燃气管道泄漏射流火灾为事故场景,在常规评估基础上结合管道地区特点,构建基于公众可接受伤亡风险标准的评估模型,并通过案例分析,开展城市燃气管道个人风险定量评估研究。结果表明:我国城市燃气管道个人死亡风险、个人受伤风险可接受标准的建议值分别为5.00×10-6和2.74×10-5,其在一般情况下的公众可接受风险标准建议值范围为5.00×10-7~5.50×10-5和2.74×10-6~4.11×10-4;公众的伤亡风险感知偏差将直接影响风险评估结果,及时有效地对目标群体进行风险疏导以改善其风险认知,有助于避免公众风险感知偏差引发的负面社会效应。     

GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE AND PUBLIC PERCEPTION: THE CHALLENGE OF TRANSLATION1

ABSTRACT: Global climate change is examined from the perspective of its relevancy and urgency as a public policy issue. Interpreting from literature specific to investigations into public awareness and concern, climate change is seen as a legitimate though less than urgent issue. The literature reveals that the general public holds surprising misconceptions about the processes contributing to climate change, including failure to grasp the fundamental connection to CO₂. General ambivalence is also suggested from the results of two surveys conducted by The Groundwater Foundation. They first asked participants in a recent Groundwater Guardian Conference to rate levels of discussion and concern for water resources implications in the participants' communities. A second survey polled national water resource organizations about the extent climate change has been a focus of their educational, investigative, or advocacy efforts. The paper concludes by describing basic barriers to stimulating public response to climate change, which education about the issue should address, and by offering a model to educate and involve citizens based on the Groundwater Guardian program developed by the The Groundwater Foundation.     

Media Context and Reporting Opportunities on Climate Change: 2012 versus 1988

This paper asks why the extreme real-world weather events of the summer of 1988 created a social scare in the USA while the comparable weather impacts of 2012 did not. It uses these two summers to exemplify the importance of the broader context surrounding the media. The key background factors are: the dominant issue culture in which the media function; grassroots environmental social movements; and both political and scientific claims-making on climate change. The paper seeks to show that these factors affected reporting opportunities related to the formation of reproducing stories and the (investigative) stance assumed by the media.     

模糊环境下的城市公共基础设施投资评价研究

公共基础设施是城市经济运行的支撑体系和物质载体,提高它的利用效益已经成为实现城市经济、社会和环境可持续发展的关键。政府资金的投入对促进公共基础设施建设有至关重要的作用。公共基础设施资金分配已成为城市发展的重要问题,如何将有限的资金合理地投资给不同的城市建设企业是公共管理领域研究的核心内容。本文根据公共基础设施投资建设环境的模糊性,通过使用三角模糊数,在引入交易成本的基础上,考虑了城市公共基础设施带来的经济、社会、环境影响,建立了基于模糊环境下的公共基础设施投资组合模型,使得在给定风险最大容忍水平的前提下,追求政府资金收益最大化。本文将公共基础设施投资组合模型运用到北京、天津、上海、重庆四大直辖市的城市建设投资公司中,在考虑公共基础设施投资数量因素的影响下得到了2000-2013年的最优投资比例。研究结果显示:国家一直将北京作为重点投资城市,在受到2008年北京奥运会的影响下,其它三市的投资比例逐渐减少,并在2012-2013年期间北京的投资比率达到了64.41%,这对天津和重庆的影响最大,特别是在2012-2013年期间天津的投资比率降到了5.22%。在四大直辖市中,上海的公共基础设施数量一直占有相当的优势,加上世博会的影响,上海的投资比例在2000-2011年期间一直保持稳定上升。综上可见,北京和上海仍然是国家重点建设城市,为了全面加快城市建设,应该在抓重点城市发展的同时加大对偏远地区的新型城镇化的投资建设支持,发挥好政府投资的带动作用。     

Aligning the logics of inquiry and action to address the biodiversity crisis

Despite an abundance of research reaffirming biodiversity's importance to the health of the planet and society, species continue to go extinct at an alarming rate. Why has continued research on the value of biodiversity not had the intended effect and what can be done about it? We considered biodiversity loss as a public value failure and the result of a misalignment between the logic of inquiry (which guides scientists) and the logic of action (which guides practitioners). We drew lessons from our own research to propose the creation of a national biodiversity strategy designed to link the logic of inquiry with the logic of action and coordinate the production of actionable conservation science and informed conservation action.     

对小城镇环境规划编制的几点思考

小城镇环境规划工作作为现阶段基层环保工作的重要推手和农村环境保护工作的重要载体,其科学的编制和积极的落实可明显改善区内生态环境质量,提高人民生活质量水平,促进经济可持续发展,对构建和谐社会起到重要的推动作用。针对规划编制过程中突出特色、环境分区、镇村差异及公众参与四个方面,依托案例,分别进行了研究和讨论,提出了相应意见,以期更好地指导该类环境规划的编制。     

Stakeholder Analysis of a Collaborative Watershed Management Process: A Florida Case Study1

Borisova, Tatiana, Laila Racevskis, and Jennison Kipp, 2012. Stakeholder Analysis of a Collaborative Watershed Management Process: A Florida Case Study. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 48(2): 277‐296. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752-1688.2011.00615.x Abstract: This study focuses on a Florida watershed where development of a total maximum daily load (TMDL) and its implementation plan resulted in conflicts among stakeholders. The overall goal is to build a better understanding of stakeholder perceptions of water quality problems, water policy processes and decisions, and water management plan development in a region where these issues have become contentious. Findings are based on a stakeholder analysis using qualitative data collected through focus groups with agricultural producers, local governments, and environmental groups, and supplemented with additional qualitative data on the watershed management process. Stakeholder conflicts in this case study are associated with perceived flaws in the structural and procedural characteristics of the stakeholder involvement process: (1) suboptimal watershed stakeholder representation on the TMDL executive committee, (2) an inappropriate voting procedure for making TMDL decisions, (3) limitations in information sharing between regulatory agencies and watershed stakeholders, and (4) stakeholders’ doubts about whether tradeoffs associated with achieving the water quality targets were assessed adequately throughout the TMDL planning and implementation process. This study contributes to the literature on collaborative watershed management by analyzing stakeholder involvement given Florida’s unique institutional settings, where implementation of TMDL pollution abatement is mandatory.     

分布式广播报警通知控制软件的设计与实现

首先介绍了公共报警通知系统的背景知识和重要意义.以发达国家和我国建设的一些公共报警通知系统为例,对公共报警通知系统的发展现状进行概述,并分析了现有技术方案的一些不足之处.在介绍了分址调频广播技术的基础上,对分布式广播报警通知控制软件的设计与实现进行了详细说明.该软件通过互斥量的方法解决了硬件资源和广播资源的访问冲突问题;通过超时重发指令的方式解决了网络通信中可能存在的指令数据包丢失问题;通过设置超时时间,自动识别发生网络故障或者设备故障的发射塔;在无需人工干预的情况下,自动重新控制恢复正常功能的发射塔.该软件实现了多个客户端对多个广播报警发射基站的高效、正确、和分布式控制,极大的发挥了基于分布式分址调频广播技术的公共报警通知系统的优点.该软件系统与配套的分布式分址调频广播硬件系统一起,形成了一种覆盖范围广、环境适应性强、分区报警控制灵活的公共报警通知系统,技术路线成熟,推广前景广阔.