安全降变原理及C-S-R事故致因新模型

为发展安全科学原理和给事故防控与调查提供新的方法,根据变化对系统安全的影响机制,开展安全降变原理及事故致因新模型研究。首先,提出安全降变原理并解析其内涵及研究意义。其次,基于安全降变原理,给出不同层级安全系统变化的分类实例,并对作业场所事故及其致因重新定义和分类。再次,构建基于安全降变原理的C-S-R事故致因新模型。最后,基于事故案例分析,验证所提出的C-S-R事故致因新模型与安全降变原理的有效性。结果表明,各级安全系统中自发或是受联动的变化超出系统的变化承受水平时,将导致事故的发生。经事故案例分析验证可知,安全降变原理及C-S-R事故致因新模型具有充分的实用性。     

超高强度钻杆低温断裂性能及裂纹扩展特征研究

超高强度钻杆在冬季低温环境下容易发生脆性断裂事故,为了从断裂力学角度揭示其冷脆现象的本质,采用ZBC2302-D型示波冲击试验机,获得了不同温度下超高强度钢在冲击断裂过程中的力-位移曲线,并对比分析了冲击功、起裂功和裂纹扩展功之间的变化关系。采用国家标准GB 4161—2007中的计算公式,计算了冲击试样的裂纹扩展量Δa和阻抗应力强度因子K_R;同时,引入K_R阻力曲线,得到超高强度钻杆在不同温度下的剩余强度图。结果表明,当冲击试样开始出现裂纹时,随温度降低,钻杆的初始起裂应力有所增加,出现硬化现象。当钻杆出现一定长度的裂纹时,随温度降低,阻抗应力强度因子越来越小,而且降低速度越来越快,剩余强度也表现出相同的变化趋势。随温度降低,材料抵抗裂纹扩展的能力逐渐下降,表明钻杆在低温下更容易断裂。     

考虑松动圈影响的钻孔瓦斯抽放合理封孔长度确定研究

以王行庄矿11071工作面为工程试验地点,通过超声波和钻孔窥视现场测试,结合理论计算,开展了瓦斯抽采煤巷松动圈范围和瓦斯抽放钻孔合理封孔长度确定的研究。确定了王行庄11071工作面二1煤层围岩卸压区宽度为8.87 m,极限平衡区宽度为9.87 m,合理封孔深度为10 m;通过极限平衡法理论计算得到的结果与超声波法、钻孔窥视法的测试结果基本相符。     

A transportation network assessment tool for hazardous material cargo routing: Weighing exposure health risks,proximity to vulnerable areas,delay costs and trucking expenses

The inherent risks associated with accidental releases of hazardous materials during transport have drawn attention and concerns in the recent decades. The aim of this study is to propose a tool for evaluation and comparison of the transportation networks which can be used to assess the routing options between origins and destinations of the cargos for their suitability for transporting hazardous material cargos by tanker trucks and to identify routes which provide lower accidental release risks, lower public exposure risks, and offer economical benefits. Each route segment of transportation networks were evaluated using specific criteria which included health risk and cost of delay in case of an accidental release of materials, trucking cost and proximity to vulnerable areas. Since, the health impact of hazardous materials differ depending on the characteristics of the material being transported as well as release quantities and atmospheric conditions; this paper aimed in providing a tool that can be used to estimate the impact radius (for health risks) after accidental release of hazardous materials by taking into account different atmospheric conditions based on the meteorological data and solar elevation angle. The Gaussian air dispersion model paired with ArcGIS using Python programming were employed to estimate the health risk impact zones by considering the meteorological data, and accordingly to analyze road segments for cost impacts (delay and trucking costs), and the proximity to vulnerable areas. The route assessment tool was demonstrated with a case study. The results of this study can efficiently aid decision makers for transportation of hazardous materials.     

A product analysis-based study on the mechanism of inflammable gas explosion suppression

To study the mechanism of the suppressing effect of Expanded Aluminium (EA) on the premixed gas explosion, premixed methane-air and propane-air gases were undergone explosion reaction in the presence of EA in a self-designed closed pipeline with the overpressures and the compositions, rates and sensitivities of products analyzed. The results showed that the 9.5% methane-air and 5% propane-air explosions produced peak pressures decreased by 79.3% and 65.6%, and residual methane and propane contents increased by 270% and 560% respectively than without EA. In addition, the results revealed that the explosions of propane in the presence of EA produced less methane and carbon oxides contents, but more ethylene and propylene contents. The simulation showed that H, O, and OH are the key factors affecting the rate of products. The product compositions, together with other parameters, suggested that EA decreased temperature, inhibited chain initiation and propagation reaction, but facilitated chain termination reaction by advancing and accelerating the gas phase and wall destruction reaction of radicals, especially collisions and concentration of key free radicals. This new research method based on the analysis of explosion products can be used for in-depth research into gas explosion features and shed light on the suppressing mechanism of EA in flammable gas explosion.     

How certain are we about the certainty-equivalent long term social discount rate?

Theoretical arguments for using a term structure of social discount rates (SDR) that declines with the time horizon have influenced government guidelines in the US and Europe. The certainty equivalent discount rate that often underpins this guidance embodies uncertainty in the primitives of the SDR, such as growth. For distant time horizons the probability distributions of these primitives are ambiguous and the certainty equivalent itself is uncertain. Yet, if a limited set of characteristics of the unknown probability distributions can be agreed upon, ‘sharp’ upper and lower bounds can be defined for the certainty-equivalent SDR. Unfortunately, even with considerable agreement on these features, these bounds are widely spread for horizons beyond 75 years. So while estimates of the present value of intergenerational impacts, including the social cost of carbon, can be bounded in the presence of this ambiguity, they typically remain so imprecise as to provide little practical guidance.     

Plant blindness and the implications for plant conservation

Plant conservation initiatives lag behind and receive considerably less funding than animal conservation projects. We explored a potential reason for this bias: a tendency among humans to neither notice nor value plants in the environment. Experimental research and surveys have demonstrated higher preference for, superior recall of, and better visual detection of animals compared with plants. This bias has been attributed to perceptual factors such as lack of motion by plants and the tendency of plants to visually blend together but also to cultural factors such as a greater focus on animals in formal biological education. In contrast, ethnographic research reveals that many social groups have strong bonds with plants, including nonhierarchical kinship relationships. We argue that plant blindness is common, but not inevitable. If immersed in a plant‐affiliated culture, the individual will experience language and practices that enhance capacity to detect, recall, and value plants, something less likely to occur in zoocentric societies. Therefore, conservation programs can contribute to reducing this bias. We considered strategies that might reduce this bias and encourage plant conservation behavior. Psychological research demonstrates that people are more likely to support conservation of species that have human‐like characteristics and that support for conservation can be increased by encouraging people to practice empathy and anthropomorphism of nonhuman species. We argue that support for plant conservation may be garnered through strategies that promote identification and empathy with plants.     

PLC控制系统在钢渣热焖工艺中的应用

利用PLC控制系统,实现在钢渣热焖工艺中的恒压供水和钢渣热焖定时定量喷水的自动控制要求,具有国际先进水平,取得了良好的经济效益、社会效益和环境效益.     

三峡蓄水期间汉丰湖消落区营养状态时间变化

为探明三峡蓄水后汉丰湖消落区水质营养状态的变化特征,于2013年10月至2014年2月对水质进行连续观察,测定了水质物理参数、营养盐与叶绿素(Chl-a)的质量浓度.结果表明,水体中营养盐与Chl-a质量浓度的增加,在淹水后营养程度有升高现象,2014年2月与2013年10月相比,TN、TP、高锰酸盐指数与Chl-a质量浓度分别增加了4.7、1.0、0.2、3.27倍,TN、TP质量浓度均超过藻类生长限值,随滞留时间延长易造成水体富营养化,应引起重视.Chl-a单因子评价反映出水质由贫营养向富营养演变.TN/TP结果表明,TN、TP分别在不同时间内制约着藻类的生长;2013年10~12月与2014年2月,藻类生长受TN限制;2014年1月,藻类生长受TP限制.Chl-a与p H、DO、NH+4-N、NO-3-N、TN、高锰酸盐指数及TP呈显著正相关,而与SD、水温呈显著负相关;蓄水期间,水质受到了同一污染源的影响.因子分析结果表明,汉丰湖消落区水质主要受p H、DO、NO-3-N、TN的影响,同时Chl-a、TP、NH+4-N与好氧性有机物的污染不可忽视;在蓄水稳定初期水体具有自净能力,随蓄水滞留时间的延长,水质污染程度整体上呈现逐步恶化的趋势,应加以控制;三峡蓄水期间,南河、东河营养程度相对较高,应加强治理.