森林合理年伐量分析确定方法研究

森林合理年伐分析确定是年森林采伐限额编制的关键技术之一,也是森林经理学的重要内容之一。本文从森林永续利用理论出发,以消长比度、成熟林采伐度、龄级结构改善度、流量均衡度、需要满足度５个指标建立了分析确定的综合评价模型,提出了森林合理年伐量分析确定的精确化方法,从而有效地保证了结果的科学性和准确性。     

西江年最高水位的神经网络预报模型

对西江洪水发生的特征进行分析表明，洪水发生频率高，具有明显阶段性特征，并与流域面雨量密切相关。利用前期环流场、海表温度（SST）场及环流特征量资料选择初选预报因子，然后对初选预报因子作EOF分解构造综合预报因子，结合人工神经网络方法建立了西江年最高水位预报模型，并对预报模型进行独立样本试验。结果表明，该预报模型对历史样本拟合精度高，试报效果明显好于传统的逐步回归模型，可在汛期预测业务中应用。     

西北地区雷暴气候特征分析

雷电产生于中尺度对流天气系统,具有明显的局地和时效特征,对西北地区气象站点历史雷暴资料的统计发现,夏季最强,春秋次之,冬季几乎无雷暴发生;地理分布呈三大中心区;与海拔高度、经度、纬度的相关分析及年际变化分析表明,地形地势是影响该地区雷暴的主要因子.高原上的雷暴云较其它地区容易产生冰雹,冰雹日数与雷暴日数比值最大为0.36.西北夏季大部分地方的闪电密度小于1个.km-2.a-1,夏季3个月的闪电密度有3个最强中心,新疆西部是最强的闪电密度中心,超过9个.km-2.a-1,7月中心最强,6月次之,8月较弱.     

Mapping shifts in spatial synchrony in grassland birds to inform conservation planning

Spatial synchrony, defined as the correlated fluctuations in abundance of spatially separated populations, can be caused by regional fluctuations in natural and anthropogenic environmental population drivers. Investigations into the geography of synchrony can provide useful insight to inform conservation planning efforts by revealing regions of common population drivers and metapopulation extinction vulnerability. We examined the geography of spatial synchrony and decadal changes in these patterns for grassland birds in the United States and Canada, which are experiencing widespread and persistent population declines. We used Bayesian hierarchical models and over 50 years of abundance data from the North American Breeding Bird Survey to generate population indices within a 2° latitude by 2° longitude grid. We computed and mapped mean local spatial synchrony for each cell (mean detrended correlation of the index among neighboring cells), along with associated uncertainty, for 19 species in 2, 26-year periods, 1968–1993 and 1994–2019. Grassland birds were predicted to increase in spatial synchrony where agricultural intensification, climate change, or interactions between the 2 increased. We found no evidence of an overall increase in synchrony among grassland bird species. However, based on the geography of these changes, there was considerable spatial heterogeneity within species. Averaging across species, we identified clusters of increasing spatial synchrony in the Prairie Pothole and Shortgrass Prairie regions and a region of decreasing spatial synchrony in the eastern United States. Our approach has the potential to inform continental-scale conservation planning by adding an additional layer of relevant information to species status assessments and spatial prioritization of policy and management actions. Our work adds to a growing literature suggesting that global change may result in shifting patterns of spatial synchrony in population dynamics across taxa with broad implications for biodiversity conservation.     

深圳市天然γ辐射空气吸收剂量率调查

从2007年至2011年在深圳市进行了天然γ辐射空气吸收计量的调查.调查结果显示：全市天然辐射外照射空气吸收剂量率的变化范围为（4.87 ～17.68）×10^ 8Gy/h,平均值为10.00 ×10^ 8Gy/h,与广东省平均水平相当,稍高于全国平均值,属于正常天然本底范围;天然辐射外照射致深圳市居民人均年有效剂量当量（0.22 ～ 1.08） mSv,低于广东省与全国的平均水平;集体有效剂量当量54.32×10^2man· Sv.     

佛山高明河水环境多环芳烃的分布特征与通量研究

利用液液萃取法和气相色谱-质谱方法对佛山境内高明河水环境多环芳烃（PAHs）进行了测定,并对PAHs的分布特征与通量进行了初步研究.结果表明高明河水环境中16种优控PAHs的浓度范围在41.6～375.6 ng/l之间,从上游到下游总体呈递增的趋势,其下游浓度偏高可能与荷城街道较为密集的工业和人口分布有关.高明河水环境PAHs的总含量高于欧美一些低污染水域,但低于国内一些主要河流.高明河PAHs年通量约为333.8 kg.     

近50年鄱阳湖五大流域降水变化特征研究

基于鄱阳湖流域在江西省内部分对应的79县市气象站1960～2006年逐日降水观测资料,采用线性回归的方法分别研究五大流域的年降水量、降水日数、暴雨日数等3要素的变化趋势,并用Mann法进行了变化趋势的显著性检验,用距平与均方差之比达到15和20作为气候异常检验指标,对各流域的各时间序列进行了异常检验,采用了Mann Kendall法对各时间序列进行突变检测。结果表明：（1）各流域的年降水量变化趋势基本一致,年降水量与年暴雨日数密切相关;饶河流域强降水事件较多,降水强度大,赣江中游流域降水时间分布相对较均匀,强降水事件较少;（2）各流域年降水量、暴雨日数总体呈波动上升趋势,20世纪90年代以来暴雨日数异常偏多的概率最大;（3）年降水日数以20世纪80年代中期为界,之前呈波动上升趋势,之后呈波动下降趋势,2002年至今各流域降雨日数明显偏少;（4）各流域的年降水量、降水日数、暴雨日数均未出现趋势性的突变;（5）近50年来鄱阳湖流域降水时间分布不均的情况加剧,旱涝灾害风险增加。     

西安市2013年PM_(2.5)浓度变化分析研究

全面分析2013年西安市13个国控环境空气质量自动监测子站PM2.5监测数据。结果表明:2013年西安市环境空气中PM2.5年均值为105μg/m3,超过《环境空气质量标准》(GB 3095—2012)二级要求(35μg/m3)200.0%,污染较严重;西安市各子站PM2.5月均值总体呈两边高、中间低的"V"型趋势,全市及各子站PM2.5月均值分别为44~206、32~275μg/m3;采暖期(上半年采暖期为1—3月,下半年采暖期为11—12月)、非采暖期(4—10月)PM2.5平均值分别为156、70μg/m3;上、下半年采暖期PM2.5平均值分别为178、124μg/m3;西安市气象风力以微风为主,雨天集中在5—9月,期间PM2.5月均值小于80μg/m3。     

云南临沧盆地土壤天然放射性测定及环境影响评价

临沧盆地受其基底花岗岩的影响,环境中存在天然放射性水平异常。本文测得其土壤中放射性核素226Ra、238U、232Th和40K的比活度分别为53.4(38.7-62.8)、161.2(127.3-211.7)、120.9(106.5-140.6)和632.2(521.7-707.5)Bq/kg,明显高于全国和世界平均值。花岗岩天然放射性水平较高,与土壤放射性有一定的相关性,为土壤伴生放射性提供了较好的来源。采用测得的土壤放射性核素226Ra、232Th和40K的比活度,计算了距地面1m高处空气中γ辐射吸收剂量率和年有效剂量率,并对γ辐射外照射水平进行了评价。评价结果表明,虽然该区的空气吸收剂量率较高,但是年有效剂量率在容许范围之内。因此该区属于外照射水平的安全区域,人居环境不受影响。     

CHANGING RAINFALL-RUNOFF RELATIONSHIPS IN THE URBANIZING PEACHTREE CREEK WATERSHED,ATLANTA, GEORGIA1

ABSTRACT: Peachtree Creek is a gaged watershed that has experienced a substantial increase in urbanization. The relationships of runoff to rainfall were studied for total annual flows, low flows, and peak flows. For each type of flow the relationship in the later, more urbanized period was compared to that in the earlier, less urbanized period. An increase in total runoff in wet years was observed as urbanization increased, but a decrease occurred during dry years. For low flows a similar decrease of runoff in dry years was found. An increase in peak runoff was observed over most of the range of precipitation. Increasing peak flows and declining low flows can be adequately explained by urban hydrologic theoryshed. which focuses on the effects of urban impervious surfaces upon direct runoff and infiltration. However, a decline of total runoff in dry years can be explained only by taking into account evapotranspiration as well. The concept of advectively assisted urban evapotranspiration, previously discovered by climatologists, is needed to explain such a loss of total runoff. Urban hydrologic theory must take into account vegetation and evapotranspiration, as well as impervious surfaces and their direct runoff, to explain the magnitude of total annual flows and low flows. Urban stormwater management should address the restoration of low flows, as well as the control of floods.