气候变化和人类活动对武江流域年径流及最大日流量影响的定量分析

针对气候变化与人类活动对流域年径流及最大日流量变化影响的定量识别问题,以华南湿润区武江流域为例,分别采用HIMS（Hydro-Informatic Modeling System）模型和敏感性系数法,从日和年尺度定量模拟和评估气候变化与人类活动对流域年最大日流量和径流变化的影响过程及贡献率。结果表明：HIMS模型在武江流域适用性良好,日尺度模型率定期和验证期的纳西效率系数分别为0.85和0.77,水量平衡误差绝对值分别为3.1%和3.3%;两种方法均表明气候变化是引起流域年径流量增加的主要因素,人类活动导致了流域径流量的减少,但贡献率较小。气候变化与人类活动导致了流域年最大日流量的增加,气候变化对年最大日流量增加的贡献率为94%,而人类活动的贡献率则为6%。相较于年均径流量,气候变化对年最大日流量的影响更为显著。     

A Variance Estimator for Constrained Estimates of Change in Relative Categorical Frequencies

Consistent estimators of change and state becomes an issue when sample data come from a mix of permanent and temporary observation units. A joint maximum likelihood estimator of state and change creates estimates of state that depend on antecedent viz. posterior survey results and may differ from estimates of state derived from a single-date analysis of the sample data. A constrained estimator of change in relative categorical frequencies that eliminates this potential inconsistency is proposed and a model based estimator of their sampling variance is developed. The performance of the constrained estimator is quantified against six criteria and a joint maximum likelihood estimator in simulated sampling from 15 populations with three combinations of permanent and temporary samples, four to six categorical class attributes, and constant size between sampling dates. Bias of the constrained estimators was negligible but larger than for joint maximum likelihood estimators. Mean absolute deviations and variances of constrained estimators were generally at par with the joint estimators. Constrained estimators of root mean square errors and achieved coverage of nominal confidence intervals of constrained estimators were occasionally better. A generalized variance function for the constrained estimates of change is provided as a computational shortcut.     

Monitoring of Butter and Ghee (Clarified Butter Fat) for Pesticidal Contamination from Cotton Belt of Haryana, India

Butter (45) and ghee (55) samples were collected from rural and urban areas of cotton growing belt of Haryana and analysed for detecting the residues of organochlorine, synthetic pyrethroid and organophosphate insecticides. The estimation was carried out by using multi residue analytical technique employing GC-ECD and GC-NPD systems equipped with capillary columns. Butter samples were comparatively more contaminated (97%) than ghee (94%), showing more contamination with organochlorine insecticides from urban samples. About 11% samples of butter showed endosulfan residues above MRL value and 2% samples had residues of synthetic pyrethroids and organophosphates each above their respective MRL values. In ghee, residues of HCH & DDT both and of endosulfan exceeded the MRL values in 5 and 20% samples, respectively. Among organophosphates, only chlorpyriphos was detected with 9% samples showing its residue above MRL value. Irrespective of contamination levels, residues above the MRL values were more in ghee. More extensive study covering other agricultural regions/zones of Haryana has been suggested to know the overall scenario of contamination of milk products.     

Monitoring of Seasonal Vegetables for Pesticide Residues

Market samples (60) of six seasonal vegetables were monitoredduring 1996–1997 to determine the magnitude of pesticidalcontamination. The estimation of insecticide residuesrepresenting four major chemical groups i.e. organochlorine,organophosphorous, synthetic pyrethroid and carbamate, was doneby adopting a multiresidue analytical technique employingGC-ECD and GC-NPD systems with capillary columns. The testedsamples showed 100% contamination with low but measurableamounts of residues. Among the four chemical groups, theorganophosphates were dominant followed by organochlorines,synthetic pyrethroids and carbamates. About 23% of the samplesshowed contamination with organophosphorous compounds abovetheir respective MRL values. More extensive studies coveringdifferent regions of Haryana state are suggested to get a clearidea of the magnitude of vegetable contamination with pesticideresidues.     

对大气采样误差的理论研究

环境监测数据是环境保护工作的基础,监测仪器设备的精良及监测方法的科学性则是获得优质数据的保障工具.本文运用数学方法对目前广泛使用的采样仪器进行了采样误差的分析研究,指出了改善仪器和改善监测方法去获取更精确数据的途径.     

催化快速法测定COD_(Cr)定量下限的研究

催化快速法测定CODCr是我国目前环境监测中普遍使用的最快速、简便、可靠的方法 ,该法的检测范围是 60～ 1 0 0 0mg/l,我们经过研究测出催化快速法的定量下限为 1 0mg/l,扩大了该法的应用范围。     

铬渣的无害化处理和综合利用

铬渣产量大、毒性剧烈 ,是严重污染生态环境和危害人类健康的危险废物。介绍了铬渣各种无害化处理方法的解毒机理、工艺过程和应用实践 ,阐述了对铬渣进行综合利用的途径 ,并就铬渣的防治前景提出了建议。     

稻、土及田水中锐劲特残留量分析方法

建立了新型杀虫剂锐劲特及其代谢物在水稻、土壤、田水中的气相色谱毛细管柱残留分析方法。该方法对锐劲特及其代谢物MB46513、MB45950、MB46136、RPA200766等，在水稻中的最低检出浓度依次为：0.002,0.001,0.001,0.004,0.01mg/kg；在土壤中这几种组分最低检出浓度为水稻中的1／3；在田水中最低检出浓度为水稻中的1／25。加标回收率83.4%-97.7%。变异系数1.86%-7.07%。     

大型车车身覆盖件冲压成形特征分析及选材研究

为满足大型车身覆盖件冲压成形要求并实现钢板与零件的对路供应 ,必须在深入解析零件成形特征的基础上 ,确定高应变部位的成形敏感材料参数。在材料力学性能测试和成形极限分析的基础上 ,对侧围外板的冲压成形特征和成形敏感参数进行了分析。结果表明 :侧围外板零件高应变部位的变形方式为胀形 深拉延变形 ,n值和r值为影响侧围外板零件成形的主要材料敏感参数     

泔脚与秸杆混合发酵法生产蛋白饲料的新工艺流程

利用多菌种混合发酵同时处理泔脚和秸杆2种废弃物,提出了一种生产高蛋白饲料的新工艺流程,并且对该流程初步进行了经济估算。结果表明,在泔脚和稻草秸杆粉按3:1、温度150℃、高压锅中高温湿热酸处理的条件下,经过初步双菌混合发酵试验所得的饲料产品质量为粗蛋白≥25％,粗纤维≤18％,水分≤ 10％,说明新工艺能很好地同时处理泔脚和秸杆2种废弃物,并且大大地提高了秸秆饲料的蛋白含量。处理新工艺流程简单、技术可行,是一种很好的饲料制备方法。