Will climate change overwhelm fire management capacity?

Using anomalies calculated from General Circulation Model (GCM) climate predictions we developed scenarios of future fire weather, fuel moisture and fire occurrence and used these as the inputs to a fire growth and suppression simulation model for the province of Ontario, Canada. The goal of this study was to combine GCM predictions with the fire growth and suppression model to examine potential changes in area burned in Ontario due to climate change, while accounting for the large fire suppression activities of the Ontario Ministry of Natural Resources (OMNR). Results indicate a doubling of area burned in the Intensive and Measured fire management zones of Ontario by the decade of 2040 and an eightfold increase in area burned by the end of the 21st century in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (IPCC SRES) A2 scenario; smaller increases were found for the A1b and B1 scenarios. These changes are driven by increased fire weather conducive to large fire growth, and increases in the number of fires escaping initial attack: for the Canadian GCM's business-as-usual (A2) scenario, escaped fire frequency increased by 34% by 2040 and 92% by the end of the 21st century. Incorporating more detail on large fire growth than previous studies, our model predicts higher area burned under climate change than do these previous studies, as large numbers of high-intensity fires overwhelm suppression capacity.     

火源房间出口面积与远离火源位置烟气浓度关系的实验研究

通过实验较系统地研究了火源房间烟气出口面积与远离火源位置烟气浓度的关系,主要探讨了一氧化碳浓度峰值的大小和到达峰值的时间与烟气出口流通面积和燃料质量的关系,并给出了初步的分析解释。     

Mapping fires and American Red Cross aid using demographic indicators of vulnerability

Social vulnerability indicators can assist with informing disaster relief preparation. Certain demographic segments of a population may suffer disproportionately during disaster events, and a geographical understanding of them can help to determine where to place strategically logistical assets and to target disaster‐awareness outreach endeavours. Records of house fire events and American Red Cross aid provision over a five‐year period were mapped for the County of Los Angeles, California, United States, to examine the congruence between actual events and expectations of risk based on vulnerability theory. The geographical context provided by the data was compared with spatially‐explicit indicators of vulnerability, such as age, race, and wealth. Fire events were found to occur more frequently in more vulnerable areas, and Red Cross aid was found to have an even stronger relationship to those places. The findings suggest that these indicators speak beyond vulnerability and relate to patterns of fire risk.     

煤油贮罐区火灾危险性评价

运用“池火灾伤害数学模型”,评价煤油罐区发生火灾爆炸事故的危险性,计算火灾事故后果,造成人员伤害、财产破坏的范围和程度。     

Forest Fires and Climate Change in the 21ST Century

Fire is the major stand-renewing disturbance in the circumboreal forest. Weather and climate are the most important factors influencing fire activity and these factors are changing due to human-caused climate change. This paper discusses and synthesises the current state of fire and climate change research and the potential direction for future studies on fire and climate change. In the future, under a warmer climate, we expect more severe fire weather, more area burned, more ignitions and a longer fire season. Although there will be large spatial and temporal variation in the fire activity response to climate change. This field of research allows us to better understand the interactions and feedbacks between fire, climate, vegetation and humans and to identify vulnerable regions. Lastly, projections of fire activity for this century can be used to explore options for mitigation and adaptation.     

关于建立齐齐哈尔市突发性环境污染事故应急信息系统的探讨

本文从计算机数据管理系统、地理信息系统、知识管理系统出发。全面阐述了构建齐齐哈尔市突发性环境污染事故应急信息系统的结构、功能、特点以及必然趋势。     

The influence of forest fires on CO, HCN, C2H6, and C2H2 over northern Japan measured by infrared solar spectroscopy

Total column abundances of CO, HCN, C₂H₆, and C₂H₂ have been retrieved from infrared solar spectra observed at Moshiri (44.4°N) and Rikubetsu (43.5°N) in northern Japan from 1997 to 2005. The spectra were recorded with high spectral resolution ground-based Fourier transform infrared (FTIR) spectrometers and total column abundances were calculated by SFIT1 version 1.09e. Deviations of these species relative to their seasonal mean values (ΔCO, ΔHCN, ΔC₂H₆, and ΔC₂H₂) were derived, which showed short-time enhancements in 1998, 2002, and 2003. Good correlations among ΔCO, ΔHCN, ΔC₂H₆, and ΔC₂H₂ in a few months of each year were seen. Since the number of forest fires in Siberia had large enhancements in 1998, 2002, and 2003, trajectory analyses were performed in order to assess the influence of forest fires and it was confirmed that air masses passing over the location of burning points in Siberia reached Moshiri and Rikubetsu. This paper shows that enhancements of these species were driven by biomass burning in Siberia.     

Pozzolanicity verification of combustion metamorphic rocks from coalfield fire zones in China

Coalfield fires are natural disasters that occur worldwide, without geographical boundaries. There are many combustion metamorphic rocks on the surface of the coal fire area. At present, there is no summary of combustion metamorphic rocks in natural and artificial pozzolanic mixed materials, and research on the pozzolanic activity of combustion metamorphic rocks is lacking, which limits the use of combustion metamorphic rocks to produce slurries for fire prevention. In this study, the apparent morphologies and chemical compositions of three types of combustion metamorphic rock samples—baked rock, sintered rock, and lavalike rock—were analyzed via scanning electron microscopy, X-ray fluorescence spectroscopy, and X-ray diffraction spectroscopy, and the crystallinity index (CI) was calculated. The results were validated by Frattini tests, which confirmed the synergistic reactions that enhanced the pozzolanic reactions. All three types of combustion metamorphic rocks exhibited pozzolanic activity. The CI value decreased with an increase in the metamorphic degree of the combustion metamorphic rock. The lavalike rock exhibited the highest pozzolanic activity (CI = 5.829), followed by the sintered rock and then the baked rock. Meanwhile, influencing factors of pozzolanicity were studied by the Frattini method. The experimental results provide important guidance for the post-treatment of combustion metamorphic rocks and coal-fire control in loess-deficient areas.     

Analysis of dioxin-like compounds in vegetation and soil samples burned in Catalan forest fires. Comparison with the corresponding unburned material

Only a few data are reported about the formation of polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins (PCDD) and dibenzofurans (PCDF) in forest fires. However, the inventories of sources undertaken by several European and American countries consider natural fires as a possible source of PCDD/F and, in some cases, as one of the most important. In our work we have analysed vegetation and soil samples burned in four forest fires which happened in Catalonia in the summer of 1998. The concentration of dioxin-like compounds (PCDD/F, non-ortho polychlorinated bi-phenyls (PCB) and mono-ortho PCB) has been compared to the concentration present in the corresponding unburned material collected in places near the fires but not affected. The results of this preliminary study show very low concentrations in all the samples, both burned and unburned. Although a change in the profile (proportional increase of tetrachlorinated congeners in PCDD/F) is observed in burned samples compared to unburned ones, the absolute values of concentration decrease in most samples. Therefore, natural fires seem not to be an important source of dioxin-like compounds. These results will be confirmed with air emissions measurements in future studies.     

Preliminary report: Dioxins and furans in prescribed burns

The Ontario Ministry of Environment (MOE) recently participated in a joint Canadian/U.S. program to monitor the behavior and environmental impact of prescribed fires. Air, soil and ash samples were collected at the burn sites and analyzed for chlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins (CDD) and dibenzofurans (CDF). Preliminary results indicated that larger air sample volumes were required.