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21.
This paper examines the effects of extreme temperatures on mortality rates, using random year-to-year variation in temperature based on county-level panel data from China. The analysis finds a robust, U-shaped relationship between temperature and mortality rates, indicating that extremely cold or hot temperatures lead to excess deaths. The heat-related (cold-related) effect is 3.5 times (3.2 times) as large as previous findings that used U.S. data, and it is especially large for the elderly population, mainly due to excess deaths caused by cardiovascular diseases. Applying these results to climate change predictions from Hadley Centre Global Environmental Model shows that by 2061–2080 the annual mortality rate is likely to increase by 14.2% if global greenhouse gas emissions continue to rise throughout the 21st century, the estimated health cost of which is around 0.98 trillion Chinese Yuan per year. The paper also explores households’ adaptation behaviors to extreme temperatures. It finds that although urban households adaptively increase energy consumption when they are exposed to cold temperatures and purchase more air conditioners on hot and cold days, rural households are unresponsive to temperature fluctuations. This finding implies that rural people may be more resource constrained and suffer more when extreme temperatures occur. 相似文献
22.
The host size model, an adaptive model for maternal manipulation of offspring sex ratio, was examined for the parasitoid
wasp Spalangia endius. In a Florida strain, as the model predicts, daughters emerged from larger hosts than sons, but only when mothers received
both small and large hosts simultaneously. The pattern appeared to result from the mother's ovipositional choice and not from
differential mortality of the sexes during development. If sex ratio manipulation is adaptive in the Florida strain, it appears
to be through a benefit to daughters of developing on large hosts rather than through a benefit to sons of developing on small
hosts. Both female and male parasitoids were larger when they developed on larger hosts. For females, developing on a larger
host (1) increased offspring production, except for the largest hosts, (2) increased longevity, (3) lengthened development,
and (4) had no effect on wing loading. For males, development on a larger host had no effect on any measure of male fitness
– mating success, longevity, development duration, or wing loading. In contrast, a strain from India showed no difference
in the size of hosts from which daughters versus sons emerged, although both female and male parasitoids were larger when
they developed on larger hosts. These results together with previous studies of Spalangia reveal no consistent connection between host-size-dependent sex ratio and host-size-dependent parasitoid size among strains
of S. endius or among species of Spalangia.
Received: 28 October 1998 / Received in revised form: 20 May 1999 / Accepted: 30 May 1999 相似文献
23.
Annah E. Piggott-McKellar Karen E. McNamara Patrick D. Nunn James E. M. Watson 《Local Environment》2013,18(4):374-390
ABSTRACTAcross the Global South, community-based adaptation (CBA) projects are increasingly being implemented in an effort to respond effectively and sustainably to the impacts of climate change, with a particular focus on people’s livelihoods. Despite an increase in the number of CBA projects being implemented, detailed analysis and evaluation of their efficacy and the barriers faced in achieving successful outcomes is lacking. This study draws on an analysis of grey literature (i.e. project and donor reports) to explore the barriers faced in achieving effective CBA. An extensive global search of online project evaluations yielded 25 documents comprising 69 projects from which this analysis is based. This paper first presents an overview of the 69 projects and highlights any trends. Second, this paper describes the barriers to CBA according to three broad themes: socio-political, resource, and physical systems and processes. Following this is a discussion of the most prevalent barriers: cognitive and behavioural, financial, and human resources. Third, this paper discusses the key findings elucidated from this review. This includes the need for greater sharing of project reports and findings so lessons can be learned across spatial and temporal scales, and the disparity between critical academic literature on CBA and what is implemented in practice. 相似文献
24.
Impacts of climate change and CO2 increase on agricultural production and adaptation options for Southern Québec, Canada 总被引:1,自引:1,他引:0
Jean-Phillipe Brassard Bhawan Singh 《Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change》2008,13(3):241-265
This study involves the assessment of the potential impacts of greenhouse gas climate change and changing ambient carbon dioxide
(CO2) levels on crop yields in Quebec, Canada. The methodology involves coupling the transient diagnostics of two Atmosphere-Ocean
General Circulation Models, namely the Canadian CGCM1 and the British HadCM3, to the Decision Support System for Agrotechnology
Transfer (DSSAT) 3.5 crop models to simulate current (1961–1990) and future (2040–2069) crop yields and changes. This is done
for four different crop species, namely spring wheat, maize, soybean, and potato, and for seven agricultural regions of Southern
Quebec. The results of this study focus on the main causative factors influencing crop yields, namely the direct CO2 fertilization effect, the influence of the increase in growing season temperature, including optimal thermal conditions and
acceleration in crop maturation, soil moisture availability, as influenced by precipitation and evapotranspiration, and nitrogen
uptake by crops. Our results show that crop yield changes may vary according to climate scenario, crop species, and agricultural
region. Consistent with other similar research, it would seem that these multiple causative factors very often seem to cancel
each other out and dilute the impacts of climate change on crop yields. 相似文献
25.
I. A. Romanenko V. A. Romanenkov P. Smith J. U. Smith O. D. Sirotenko N. V. Lisovoi L. K. Shevtsova D. I. Rukhovich P. V. Koroleva 《Regional Environmental Change》2007,7(2):63-77
This study estimates the consequences of climate change on cropland with and without implementation of adaptation measures,
paying special attention to the maintenance of soil organic carbon (C) stocks. We examine the possibility for regional sustainable
agricultural management practice that combines both maintenance and gain in soil carbon level with profit maximization. Future
scenarios of Regional Agricultural Production Systems (RAPS) were constructed for 2000–2070 based on linking the effects of
global climate change, predicted change in productivity parameters for the main agricultural crops, land-use and soil database
parameters. The RAPS were used to examine profitability and feasibility of alternative agricultural scenarios, based on an
economic model. A number of recommendations for decision making were proposed based on an assessment of the efficiency of
adaptation in animal husbandry and in the crop production sector, after analysis of current percentage of perennial grass
in rotation in comparison with future economic scenarios.
Figures in color are available at 相似文献
26.
Adaptation and mitigation: trade-offs in substance and methods 总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2
Adaptation to climate change and mitigation of climate change are policy substitutes, as both reduce the impacts of climate change. Adaptation and mitigation should therefore be analysed together, as they indeed are, albeit in a rudimentary way, in cost-benefit analyses of emission abatement. However, adaptation and mitigation are done by different people operating at different spatial and temporal scales. This hampers analysis of the trade-offs between adaptation and mitigation. An exception is facilitative adaptation (enhancing adaptive capacity), which, like mitigation, requires long-term policies at macro level. Facilitative adaptation and mitigation not only both reduce impacts, but they also compete for resources. 相似文献
27.
On integration of policies for climate and global change 总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2
Hadi Dowlatabadi 《Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change》2007,12(5):651-663
Currently envisaged mitigation of greenhouse gases (GHG) emissions will be insufficient to appreciably limit climate change
and its impacts. Adaptation holds the promise of ameliorating the impacts on a small subset of systems being affected. There
is no question that both will be needed. However, climate change is only part of a broader multi-stress setting of global
through to local changes. Privileging climate related policies over other concerns leads to tragic outcomes. Climate policies
need to be designed for and integrated into this broader and challenging context. This paper focuses on placing climate change
within the broader context of global change and the importance of aligning climate policy objectives with the myriad other
policies that still need to be implemented if our primary goal is improving human welfare rather than limiting our focus to
climate change and its impacts. 相似文献
28.
Climate change adaptation in the ski industry 总被引:4,自引:0,他引:4
Daniel Scott Geoff McBoyle 《Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change》2007,12(8):1411-1431
Regardless of the success of climate change mitigation efforts, the international community has concluded that societies around
the world will need to adapt to some magnitude of climate change in the 21st century. While some economic sectors (e.g., agriculture,
water resources and construction) have been actively engaged in climate change adaptation research for years, adaptation has
received scant consideration within the tourism-recreation industry. This is particularly the case for adaptation by tourism
operators (supply-side). One exception where progress on supply-side climate adaptation has been made is the ski industry.
This paper provides a brief overview of the literature on the implications of climate change for the international ski industry
and how adaptation by ski area operators has been treated within these studies. This is followed by an inventory of climate
adaptation practices currently used by ski industry stakeholders, including the historical development of certain key adaptations
and constraints to wider use. The characteristics of ski areas with higher adaptive capacity are identified. Considering the
highly competitive nature of the ski industry and the generally low climate change risk appraisal within the industry, climate
change adaptation is anticipated to remain individualistic and reactive for some time. With only a few exceptions, the existing
climate change literature on winter tourism has not considered the wide range of adaptation options identified in this paper
and has likely overestimated potential damages. An important task for future studies is to develop methodologies to incorporate
adaptation so that a more accurate understanding of the vulnerability of the international ski industry can be ascertained. 相似文献
29.
Venema Henry D. Schiller Eric J. Bass Brad 《Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change》1996,1(2):139-165
The ongoing drought in the Sahel region of West Africa highlights the vulnerability of food-producing systems to climate change
and variability. Adaptation to climate should therefore increase the sustainability of agriculture under a long-term drought.
Progress towards sustainability and adaptation in the the Senegal River Basin is hampered by an existing set of social and
ecological relationships that define the control over the means of production and how people interact with their environment.
These relationships are sensitive to the technological inputs and the administration of food production, or the factor bias
in the different policy alternatives for rural development. One option is based on state-controlled, irrigated plantations
to provide rice (Oryza) for the capital, Dakar. This policy emphasizes a top-down management approach, mechanized agriculture and a reliance on
external inputs which strengthens the relationships introduced during the colonial period.
A time series decomposition of the annual flow in the Senegal River at Bakel in Senegal suggests that water resources availability
has been substantially curtailed since 1960, and a review of the water resources budget or availability in the basin suggests
that this policy's food production system is not sustainable under the current climate of the basin. Under these conditions,
this program is exacerbating existing problems of landscape degradation and desertification, which increases rural poverty.
A natural resource management policy offers two adaptation strategies that favour decentralized management and a reduction
of external inputs. The first alternative, “Les Perimetres Irrigués”, emphasizes village-scale irrigation, low water consumption
cereal crops and traditional socio-political structures. The second alternative emphasizes farm-level irrigation and agro-forestry
projects to redress the primary effects of desertification. 相似文献
30.
Edward M. Sykes Tabitha M. Innocent Ido Pen David M. Shuker Stuart A. West 《Behavioral ecology and sociobiology》2007,61(11):1751-1758
Sex allocation theory offers excellent opportunities for testing how animals adjust their behaviour in response to environmental
conditions. A major focus has been on instances of local mate competition (LMC), where female-biased broods are produced to
maximise mating opportunities for sons. However, the predictions of LMC theory can be altered if there is both local competition
for resources during development and an asymmetry between the competitive abilities of the sexes, as has been seen in animals
ranging from wasps to birds. In this paper, we test the extent to which asymmetric larval competition alters the predictions
of LMC theory in the parasitoid wasp Nasonia vitripennis. We found that the body size of both sexes was negatively correlated with the number of offspring developing within the host.
Further, we found that when faced with high levels of competition, the body size of females, but not males, was influenced
by the sex ratio of the competing offspring; females were smaller when a higher proportion of the brood was female. This asymmetric
competition should favour less biased sex ratios than are predicted by standard LMC theory. We then develop a theoretical
model that can be parameterised with our data, allowing us to determine the quantitative consequences of the observed level
of asymmetric larval competition for sex allocation. We found that although asymmetric competition selects for less biased
sex ratios, this effect is negligible compared to LMC. Furthermore, a similar conclusion is reached when we re-analyse existing
data from another parasitoid species where asymmetric larval competition has been observed; Bracon hebetor. Consequently, we suspect that asymmetric larval competition will have its greatest influence on sex ratio evolution in species
that have smaller clutches and where local mate competition is not an issue, such as birds and mammals. 相似文献