香港的空气污染指数预报

介绍了香港空气污染指数预报的方法和所取得的良好社会效果。通过香港空气污染指数预报的学习结合内地环境保护工作的情况，谈了几点体会。     

氧化剂对土壤中石油污染物去除率的影响

以FeSO_4-柠檬酸为催化剂,探讨了不同氧化剂的类型、浓度、与催化剂的比例等因素对土壤中石油污染物去除率的影响。实验结果表明:各氧化剂体系的石油去除率大小顺序为KMnO_4CaO_2≥H_2O_2K_2S_2O_8;随着反应时间的延长,各体系的石油去除率均呈现出先快速增涨、再缓慢增加后略有降低的趋势;在氧化剂浓度相同条件下,H_2O_2体系和Na_2S_2O_8体系的石油去除率分别比对照增加了145.5%~238.7%和112.6%~167.5%;在催化剂用量相同条件下,H_2O_2体系和Na_2S_2O_8体系达到最高石油去除率时的n(氧化剂)∶n(催化剂)分别为50∶1和100∶1;H_2O_2体系对残油族组分的去除率大小顺序为非烃芳烃饱和烃沥青质。     

国内外煤化工行业污染物排放标准研究及启示

系统分析了煤化工行业的产排污情况,梳理了国内外相关排放标准。结果表明:国内仅焦化等部分工序有行业排放标准,其余工序目前执行水或大气的综合排放标准,其污染物项目不能全面反映煤化工行业的污染特征,急需制定煤化工行业污染物排放标准;国外相关标准情况与国内类似,无直接借鉴意义。建议:合理界定煤化工排放标准的适用范围,与其他排放标准协调配套,控制整个行业的污染物排放;针对大气污染物,明确各排放口的特征污染物,结合综合指标和高毒性物质指标进行挥发性有机物的排放控制;针对水污染物,引入综合毒性指标以有效控制废水中有毒有害污染物排放的环境风险。     

工业污染源产排污系数存在问题分析及修订建议

通过对基层环境统计部门工业源产排污系数实际应用调研,结合当前环境保护重点工作和相关资料查阅等,分析了工业污染源产排污系数存在的主要问题:部分工业源产排污系数缺失,部分工业源产排污系数与实际偏差较大等。针对存在的主要问题提出了有优先顺序的修订建议,以期对第二次全国污染源普查工作提供有益参考。     

我国重点调查企业工业锅炉污染排放特征

基于中国2015年环境统计重点调查工业企业的逐台工业锅炉数据,分析了中国重点调查工业企业工业锅炉的现状、能源消耗、污染排放及治理水平等。统计数据分析表明:在能源消耗和废气污染物产生排放量上,燃煤工业锅炉占85%以上;燃煤工业锅炉规模越小,其烟粉尘排放强度越大;超过一半以上工业锅炉烟粉尘直排,烟粉尘去除率虚高;工业锅炉相对集中在东北、华北少数几个大省及热力、化工等少数几个重污染行业。对工业锅炉污染治理提出治理对策建议。     

基于OP-FTIR的化工区空气特征污染实测方法研究

应用开放式傅里叶变换红外光谱分析仪(OP-FTIR)对华东地区某化工区周边空气特征污染进行了180 d连续在线监测,建立了污染特征分析、预警评估和污染溯源等体系化监测应用方法,匹配形成了近10项日常数据监控指标的质保质控体系和基于最小二乘法人机结合的谱图解析和数据生成体系,数据误差控制在20%以内。结果表明,通过180 d外场稳定监测,实现了超过40种区域特征污染因子库的建立和实时监控,掌握了乙烯和甲醇等10余种特征污染物的排放规律和主要来源。     

京津冀PM_(2.5)的主要影响因素及内在关系研究

大气污染物的源排放是形成灰霾天气的内因,气象条件是形成灰霾天气的外因。本研究通过构建PM_(2.5)浓度的两段式分布滞后模型,结合自然环境因素及经济因素对PM_(2.5)的影响因素进行了综合分析。在第一段模型中构建了PM_(2.5)和大气污染物排放量的分布滞后模型,第二段模型中构建了不同的大气污染源对大气污染物排放量的影响因素模型。大气污染物排放源主要包括工业源、生活源、机动车源、集中式污染治理设施源。在工业源中,工业废气重度污染行业是大气污染物排放主要的贡献者;在生活源中,燃煤消费量对大气污染物排放影响很大,这也是冬季供暖期间PM_(2.5)剧增的原因;在机动车源中,尽管黄标车的保有量仅占汽车保有量的10%左右,但却占据了颗粒物排放量的绝大部分。利用京津冀代表性城市PM_(2.5)日度数据研究得出平均气温、平均风速、日照时数、平均气压、降雨量、平均相对湿度、沙尘暴等因素对PM_(2.5)浓度的负向与正向作用。研究发现,大气污染物排放量对PM_(2.5)浓度具有聚集的滞后效应,当期大气污染物排放量、滞后一期、滞后两期、滞后三期大气污染物对PM_(2.5)浓度具有显著的正向作用,且影响依次递减。构建的大气污染物排放量的污染源影响因素模型揭示一个地区煤炭消费量、工业废气重度污染行业工业增加值、黄标车保有量对该地区大气污染物排放量具有显著影响。本研究对优化能源消费结构和产业结构,减少空气污染物排放提出了对策建议。     

中国资本回报率:考虑碳减排成本的新核算

对资本回报率进行绿色核算既符合当前绿色发展的新理念,同时也是判断我国经济增长可持续性的重要依据。使用超越对数生产函数估算1960—2014年碳排放的影子价格;利用Hall-Jorgenson租金公式测算剔除碳减排成本的中国资本回报率的动态演变趋势。对中国资本回报率重新估算克服了因忽略碳减排成本而导致的高估,估算结果更加科学可靠。研究结果:(1)中国碳排放的影子价格由1960年的56.34元/t上升到2011年的1651.69/t,根据影子价格计算的碳减排成本占GDP总量的份额年均为31%。(2)不考虑碳减排成本和税收因素的基础资本回报率变动趋势可以划分为三个阶段。1952-1983年为第一阶段,资本回报率在波动中由高位逐步回落。1984—2010年是第二个阶段,基础资本回报率保持平稳。2011年以来是第三个阶段,这一阶段中国的资本回报率呈台阶式下降趋势,特别是2012—2014年,税后的资本回报率已经难以抵补企业投资的机会成本。(3)考虑碳减排成本将导致资本回报率平均下降约12%。其中1960—1975年资本回报率呈下降趋势。1976—2008年资本回报率基本保持稳定,资本回报率平均值为15.2%。2009年以后,资本回报率则表现出逐年下降的趋势,2014年的估算值甚至降为-1%。本文仅考虑了碳减排成本,如果再考虑诸如二氧化硫等废气排放、废水与固废排放的成本后,绿色资本回报率的估算值将更低。建议:在当前的经济形势下,应实施激励企业技术创新以及减税(尤其是生产税)政策遏制资本回报率下降的趋势。另外,需要采取分阶段递增的环境规制政策,逐步实现企业环境外部成本的内部化。     

Pathway and policy analysis to China’s deep decarbonization

The Paris Agreement marks the beginning of a new era in the global response to climate change, which further clarifies the long-term goal and underlines the urgency addressing climate change. For China, promoting the decoupling between economic growth and carbon emissions as soon as possible is not only the core task of achieving the medium- and long-term goals and strategies to address climate change, but also the inevitable requirement for ensuring the sustainable development of economy and society. Based on the analysis of the historical trends of the economy and social development, as well as society, energy consumption, and key end-use sectors in China, this paper studies the deep carbon emission reduction potential of carbon emission of in energy, industry, building, and transportation and other sectors with “bottom-up” modeling analysis and proposes a medium- and long-term deep decarbonization pathway based on key technologies’ mitigation potentials for China. It is found that under deep decarbonization pathway, China will successfully realize the goals set in China’s Intended Nationally Determined Contributions of achieving carbon emissions peak around 2030 and lowering carbon dioxide emissions per unit of gross domestic product (GDP) by 60–65% from the 2005 level. From 2030 onward, the development of nonfossil energy will further accelerates, and the share of nonfossil energies in primary energy will amounts to about 44% by 2050. Combined with the acceleration of low-carbon transformation in end-use sectors including industry, building, and transportation, the carbon dioxide emissions in 2050 will fall to the level before 2005, and the carbon dioxide emissions per unit of GDP will decreases by more than 90% from the 2005 level. To ensure the realization of the deep decarbonization pathway, this paper puts forward policy recommendations from four perspectives, including intensifying the total carbon dioxide emissions cap and strengthening the related institutional systems and regulations, improving the incentive policies for industrial low-carbon development, enhancing the role of the market mechanism, and advocating low-carbon life and consumption patterns.     

Analysis of interprovincial trade embodied carbon emissions in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei and surrounding provinces: based on constructed MRIO Model

The interprovincial trade embodied carbon emissions plays an important role in the national emission reduction target among China’s provinces. Furthermore, it will affect the smooth start-up of the national carbon trade market as well as the implementation of targets in 2030 for dealing with the climate change. Based on constructed MRIO model, this paper analyzes the embodied carbon emission trade flows among Beijing, Tianjin, Hebei and surrounding regions such as Shanxi, Shaanxi, and Inner Mongolia. The results indicate that six provinces have formed different patterns of carbon trade balance, where Beijing, Tianjin, and Hebei provinces are in a deficit position, while the other three provinces are in a surplus position. Beijing, Tianjin, and Hebei have transferred part of the carbon emissions to the other three provinces, which shows greater heterogeneity among various provinces and provincial different sectors. On basis of the conclusions, this paper puts forward some suggestions on provincial decomposition, responsibility distribution, and provincial collaborative reduction for national emission reduction targets.