Dynamic risk assessment for underground gas storage facilities based on Bayesian network

Loss of the underground gas storage process can have significant effects, and risk analysis is critical for maintaining the integrity of the underground gas storage process and reducing potential accidents. This paper focuses on the dynamic risk assessment method for the underground gas storage process. First, the underground gas storage process data is combined to create a database, and the fault tree of the underground gas storage facility is built by identifying the risk factors of the underground gas storage facility and mapping them into a Bayesian network. To eliminate the subjectivity in the process of determining the failure probability level of basic events, fuzzy numbers are introduced to determine the prior probability of the Bayesian network. Then, causal and diagnostic reasoning is performed on the Bayesian network to determine the failure level of the underground gas storage facilities. Based on the rate of change of prior and posterior probabilities, sensitivity and impact analysis are combined to determine the significant risk factors and possible failure paths. In addition, the time factor is introduced to build a dynamic Bayesian network to perform dynamic assessment and analysis of underground gas storage facilities. Finally, the dynamic risk assessment method is applied to underground gas storage facilities in depleted oil and gas reservoirs. A dynamic risk evaluation model for underground gas storage facilities is built to simulate and validate the dynamic risk evaluation method based on the Bayesian network. The results show that the proposed method has practical value for improving underground gas storage process safety.     

CFD-based assessment and visualization of the failure consequences of LPG tankers

This paper presents a simulation analysis of the explosions following an LPG leak and visualizes the consequences of the accident to reduce the consequences of the LPG leak explosion. Firstly, this paper proposes a CFD numerical simulation-based method for visualizing the consequences of LPG tanker failure. The method combines satellite maps and CFD numerical simulation data to visualize the consequences of LPG leaks and explosions, taking into account the influence of obstacles on the danger range of leaks and explosions; Secondly, this paper applies the method to a liquefied petroleum gas accident that occurred in the Wenling section of the Shenhai Expressway and performs CFD numerical simulation on the accident process and visualizes the consequences of the accident. Therefore, this method can provide a theoretical reference for the prior prevention of LPG accidents and the analysis of the consequences of accidents, as well as certain practical guidance instructive.     

An integrated EDIB model for probabilistic risk analysis of natural gas pipeline leakage accidents

Natural gas pipeline construction is developing rapidly worldwide to meet the needs of international and domestic energy transportation. Meanwhile, leakage accidents occur to natural gas pipelines frequently due to mechanical failure, personal operation errors, etc., and induce huge economic property loss, environmental damages, and even casualties. However, few models have been developed to describe the evolution process of natural gas pipeline leakage accidents (NGPLA) and assess their corresponding consequences and influencing factors quantitatively. Therefore, this study aims to propose a comprehensive risk analysis model, named EDIB (ET-DEMATEL-ISM-BN) model, which can be employed to analyze the accident evolution process of NGPLA and conduct probabilistic risk assessments of NGPLA with the consideration of multiple influencing factors. In the proposed integrated model, event tree analysis (ET) is employed to analyze the evolution process of NGPLA before the influencing factors of accident evolution can be identified with the help of accident reports. Then, the combination of DEMATEL (Decision-making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory) and ISM (Interpretative Structural Modeling) is used to determine the relationship among accident evolution events of NGPLA and obtain a hierarchical network, which can be employed to support the construction of a Bayesian network (BN) model. The prior conditional probabilities of the BN model were determined based on the data analysis of 773 accident reports or expert judgment with the help of the Dempster-Shafer evidence theory. Finally, the developed BN model was used to conduct accident evolution scenario analysis and influencing factor sensitivity analysis with respect to secondary accidents (fire, vapor cloud explosion, and asphyxia or poisoning). The results show that ignition is the most critical influencing factor leading to secondary accidents. The occurrence time and occurrence location of NGPLA mainly affect the efficiency of emergency response and further influence the accident consequence. Meanwhile, the weight ranking of economic loss, environmental influence, and casualties on social influence is determined with respect to NGPLAs.     

Inhibition effects of aluminum dust explosions by various kinds of ammonium polyphosphate

In this work, vinyltriethoxysilane (A151) and 3-aminopropyltriethoxysilane (KH550) were used to modify ammonium polyphosphate (APP), showing that the dispersibility of APP could be improved remarkably by A151 and KH550. The maximum explosion pressure of aluminum dust explosion decreased with the addition of APP, A151-APP (APP-A) and KH550-APP (APP-B), with the exception of the case where the inerting ratio (α) of APP-A was less than 0.4. After the addition of APP-B, there was little difference in flame propagation behavior and explosion pressure compared with that of adding APP, indicating that APP-B could retain the inhibition performance of APP compared with APP-A. When the inerting ratios of APP, APP-A and APP-B were 1.2, 1.4 and 1.4, respectively, the aluminum dust explosion could be completely inhibited. The explosion residues of aluminum dust/APP mainly consisted of Al₂O₃, P-containing and N-containing compounds. It could be analyzed that APP exerted the inhibition effect through both chemical and physical effects.     

Experimental and theoretical research on the inhibition performance of ethanol gasoline/air explosion by C6F12O

The safety issue of ethanol gasoline and the methods to control or weaken its explosion have attracted attention. To clarify the effect of C₆F₁₂O (perfluoro(2-methyl-3-pentanone)) on the explosion of ethanol gasoline-air mixtures and intrinsic mechanism, the explosion overpressure and flame propagation behavior under different equivalence ratios (φ = 0.6–0.8) and C₆F₁₂O concentrations (χ_inh = 0–4.0%) were experimentally obtained. The detailed inhibitor reaction process was also obtained by CHEMKIN based on a new assembly kinetic mechanism. The results show that the effects of C₆F₁₂O on the explosion characteristics of ethanol gasoline varied with χ_inh and φ. For rich flames, C₆F₁₂O is more effective than and heptafluoropropane (C₃HF₇) and nitrogen (N₂) in suppressing explosions; for lean and equivalence ratio flames, the addition of C₆F₁₂O may result in more severe explosions. The decrease in chemical reactivity is mainly because the mole fractions of OH and H radicals and the proportion of paths H radicals involved decrease after adding C₆F₁₂O, and R1500: CF₃COF + H = CF₃CO + HF, R965: CF₂:O + H = CF:O + HF, R863: CF₃ + H = CF₂ + HF are main suppressing reactions.     

珠江三角洲机动车排放控制措施协同效应分析

预测了2015年珠江三角洲机动车空气污染物和温室气体排放量,设计了6类单一控制、技术控制、结构控制以及综合控制措施的情景,并运用基准线年排放清单编制和协同效应坐标系法分析了污染物与温室气体减排的协同效应.结果表明,按目前机动车保有量增长趋势,2015年污染物和温室气体将以18%~120%的幅度增加;各控制措施下污染物和温室气体排放量均有下降,且均具有正向的协同效应,但减排的贡献差异较大.6类单一控制措施中淘汰黄标车和结构性控制措施分别对各污染物和温室气体的削减效果最明显,减排幅度均在40%以上,且正向协同效应突出,但相比其他措施,结构性控制措施实施难度大.     

Visible-light-driven photocatalytic inactivation of bacteriophage f2 by Cu-TiO2 nanofibers in the presence of humic acid

Pathogenic viruses in drinking water are great threats to public health. Visible-light-driven photocatalysis is a promising technology for virus inactivation. However, the existing photocatalytic antiviral research studies have mostly been carried out in single-component systems, neglecting the effect of natural organic matter, which exists widely in actual water bodies. In this paper, electrospun Cu-TiO₂ nanofibers were prepared as photocatalysts, and their photocatalytic antiviral performance in the presence of humic acid (HA) was comprehensively studied for the first time. The properties of the reaction mixture were measured during the reaction. In addition, the safety, reliability and stability of photocatalytic disinfection in the mixed system were evaluated. The results showed that the virus removal efficiency decreased with the increase of the HA concentration. The type of reaction solution, such as PBS buffer solution or water, did not affect the removal efficiency noticeably. Under acidic conditions, the electrostatic forces between photocatalysts and viruses were strengthened, leading to higher virus removal efficiency. As the reaction time went on, the pH value in the solution increased first and then tended to be stable, the conductivity remained stable, and the dissolved oxygen increased first and then decreased. The safety test showed that the concentration of Cu ions released into the solution was lower than specified by the international standards. No photoreactivation was observed, and the addition of HA significantly reduced the reutilization efficiency of the photocatalysts.     

Microbial reduction of uranium (VI) by Bacillus sp. dwc-2: A macroscopic and spectroscopic study

The microbial reduction of U(VI) by Bacillus sp. dwc-2, isolated from soil in Southwest China, was explored using transmission electron microscopy (TEM), X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy (XPS) and X-ray absorption near edge spectroscopy (XANES). Our studies indicated that approximately 16.0% of U(VI) at an initial concentration of 100 mg/L uranium nitrate could be reduced by Bacillus sp. dwc-2 at pH 8.2 under anaerobic conditions at room temperature. Additionally, natural organic matter (NOM) played an important role in enhancing the bioreduction of U(VI) by Bacillus sp. dwc-2. XPS results demonstrated that the uranium presented mixed valence states (U(VI) and U(IV)) after bioreduction, which was subsequently confirmed by XANES. Furthermore, the TEM and high resolution transmission electron microscopy (HRTEM) analysis suggested that the reduced uranium was bioaccumulated mainly within the cell and as a crystalline structure on the cell wall. These observations implied that the reduction of uranium may have a significant effect on its fate in the soil environment in which these bacterial strains occur.     

Layered sphere-shaped TiO2 capped with gold nanoparticles on structural defects and their catalysis of formaldehyde oxidation

We describe here a one-step method for the synthesis of Au/TiO₂ nanosphere materials, which were formed by layered deposition of multiple anatase TiO₂ nanosheets. The Au nanoparticles were stabilized by structural defects in each TiO₂ nanosheet, including crystal steps and edges, thereby fixing the Au–TiO₂ perimeter interface. Reactant transfer occurred along the gaps between these TiO₂ nanosheet layers and in contact with catalytically active sites at the Au–TiO₂ interface. The doped Au induced the formation of oxygen vacancies in the Au–TiO₂ interface. Such vacancies are essential for generating active oxygen species (*O⁻) on the TiO₂ surface and Ti^3 + ions in bulk TiO₂. These ions can then form Ti^3 +–O⁻–Ti^4 + species, which are known to enhance the catalytic activity of formaldehyde (HCHO) oxidation. These studies on structural and oxygen vacancy defects in Au/TiO₂ samples provide a theoretical foundation for the catalytic mechanism of HCHO oxidation on oxide-supported Au materials.     

苏北潮滩温室气体排放的时空变化及影响因素

滨海湿地温室气体CO_2、CH_4和N_2O的排放在全球碳氮循环中发挥着重要的作用,进一步影响着全球气候变化.为研究滨海湿地CO_2、CH_4和N_2O排放的时空变化及影响因素,以苏北潮滩为例,采用静态暗箱-气相色谱法,于2013年4月至2014年3月,测定了不同时空尺度下CO_2、CH_4和N_2O通量的变化规律,并分析了影响温室气体通量变化的环境因素.结果表明,CO_2、CH_4和N_2O通量的季节变化的最大值出现在夏季,CO_2和N_2O通量的最小值出现在冬季,而CH_4在春季表现为弱吸收;互花米草滩年均排放CO_2量最大,为(766.3±496.9)mg·(m2·h)~(-1),芦苇滩年均排放CH_4和N_2O最大,分别是(0.420±0.900)mg·(m2·h)~(-1)和(17.4±5.0)μg·(m2·h)~(-1).光滩表现为对CH_4的吸收,为(-0.004±0.032)mg·(m2·h)~(-1),对CO_2和N_2O的排放,且排放通量最小,分别是(57.1±16.2)mg·(m2·h)~(-1)和(6.1±2.1)μg·(m2·h)~(-1).全球变暖潜能的最大值出现在互花米草滩,为68 841.280 kg·(hm2·a)~(-1),分别是芦苇滩和碱蓬滩的1.41倍和3.02倍,光滩的GWP最小,为5 002.100 kg·(hm2·a)~(-1).通过Pearson相关分析发现,除光滩外,CO_2通量与气温、土温呈显著的相关性(P0.05),而CH_4和N_2O通量与温度则不存在显著的相关性.尽管如此,CO_2、CH_4和N_2O通量的时间变化更多地是受温度以及植被生长状况的影响,而空间变化则主要由植被的状况所决定;外来种互花米草主要是通过增加CO_2排放来影响滨海湿地的全球变暖潜能.