基于随机森林的开封市重型柴油车NOx排放总量估算模型

近年来,在相关法律文件的推动下,监控平台技术得到发展与应用,有助于准确、实时获取海量实车行驶和排放数据,为建立机动车排放清单提供了重要数据基础.基于此背景,本文依托河南开封重型柴油车远程监控平台排放大数据,考虑了中观尺度上的活动因子分布特征及活动因子的影响权重,利用随机森林回归模型对重型柴油车污染物排放量预测方法进行研究.结果表明：①开封市重型柴油车行驶工况呈Ω型分布,而且随着发动机排量的增大,工况范围有逐渐缩小的趋势,且重型柴油车有20%的时间行驶在怠速区域和至少40%的时间行驶在中低转速区域.②在样本车中,在活动因子影响程度占比排序方面,有超过80%的柴油车将车速排在首位,其次分别是SCR床温、废气流量、发动机转速、燃料流量.③NO_x排放总量估算模型计算的6种典型排量下的重型柴油车NO_x排放总量与实际排放总量相比,误差不超过25%,能够满足实际需求.     

典型重化工园区产能增加对城市O3浓度影响

重化工园区产能增加将加大园区挥发性有机物(VOCs)排放总量,进而影响本地及周边城市O₃浓度.珠三角实施的“VOCs倍量替代”政策可在城市层面有效抵消重化工园区VOCs排放量上升的不利影响,还可进一步降低城市VOCs排放总量,实现区域O₃浓度下降.以惠州市某大型重化工园区为例,编制2018—2020年重化工园区产能增加以及实施“VOCs倍量替代”政策的污染物排放清单,基于WRF-CMAQ模拟体系,定量分析多种情景下园区在基准年(2017年)7—10月气象条件下对惠州市及周边城市O₃影响程度.研究表明,重化工园区增产而增加VOCs排放4101.96 t,“VOCs倍量替代”综合减排余量7298.97 t;“VOCs倍量替代”政策可有效解决重化工园区增产对O₃浓度的不利影响,其中7月最为显著,主导东南风下风向的深圳市及惠州市大亚湾管委会站点O₃浓度降幅最大,分别为3.9μg·m^-3(下降率2.97%)和7μg·m^-3(下降率4.95%);...     

西北地区物流网络搭建与环境保护关系研究

西北地区雾霾风沙较大,环境保护形势严峻,在搭建西北地区物流网络过程中,要尽量降低物流排放,缩短物流路径,提高环境保护效果.提出一种物流资源属性组合配置的西北地区物流网络搭建模型,分析物流网络搭建与环境保护的关系,从静态属性和动态属性两部分出发进行物流网络搭建和网络拓扑控制,采用前向树状拓扑控制协议进行物流资源属性优化组合配置,降低物流资源损耗和污染物质排放量,实现节能减排,促进环境保护机制的有效形成.研究表明,通过对西北地区物流网络优化搭建,物流链路中的碳排放得到有效降低,提高了环境保护的效能.     

The presence and partitioning behavior of flame retardants in waste, leachate, and air particles from Norwegian waste-handling facilities

Flame retardants in commercial products eventually make their way into the waste stream.Herein the presence of flame retardants in Norwegian landfills, incineration facilities and recycling sorting/defragmenting facilities is investigated. These facilities handled waste electrical and electronic equipment(WEEE), vehicles, digestate, glass, combustibles, bottom ash and fly ash. The flame retardants considered included polybrominated diphenyl ethers(∑BDE-10) as well as dechlorane plus, polybrominated biphenyls, hexabromobenzene,pentabromotoluene and pentabromoethylbenzene(collectively referred to as ∑FR-7). Plastic,WEEE and vehicles contained the largest amount of flame retardants(∑BDE-10: 45,000–210,000 μg/kg; ∑FR-7: 300–13,000 μg/kg). It was hypothesized leachate and air concentrations from facilities that sort/defragment WEEE and vehicles would be the highest. This was supported for total air phase concentrations(∑BDE-10: 9000–195,000 pg/m~3 WEEE/vehicle facilities, 80–900 pg/m~3 in incineration/sorting and landfill sites), but not for water leachate concentrations(e.g., ∑BDE-10: 15–3500 ng/L in WEEE/Vehicle facilities and 1–250 ng/L in landfill sites). Landfill leachate exhibited similar concentrations as WEEE/vehicle sorting and defragmenting facility leachate. To better account for concentrations in leachates at the different facilities, waste-water partitioning coefficients, Kwastewere measured(for the first time to our knowledge for flame retardants). WEEE and plastic waste had elevated Kwastecompared to other wastes, likely because flame retardants are directly added to these materials. The results of this study have implications for the development of strategies to reduce exposure and environmental emissions of flame retardants in waste and recycled products through improved waste management practices.     

Ammonia and greenhouse gas emissions from a subtropical wheat field under different nitrogen fertilization strategies

Minimizing soil ammonia (NH₃) and nitrous oxide (N₂O) emission factors (EFs) has significant implications in regional air quality and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions besides nitrogen (N) nutrient loss. The aim of this study was to investigate the impacts of different N fertilizer treatments of conventional urea, polymer-coated urea, ammonia sulfate, urease inhibitor (NBPT, N-(n-butyl) thiophosphoric triamide)-treated urea, and nitrification inhibitor (DCD, dicyandiamide)-treated urea on emissions of NH₃ and GHGs from subtropical wheat cultivation. A field study was established in a Cancienne silt loam soil. During growth season, NH₃ emission following N fertilization was characterized using active chamber method whereas GHG emissions of N₂O, carbon dioxide (CO₂), and methane (CH₄) were by passive chamber method. The results showed that coated urea exhibited the largest reduction (49%) in the EF of NH₃-N followed by NBPT-treated urea (39%) and DCD-treated urea (24%) over conventional urea, whereas DCD-treated urea had the greatest suppression on N₂O-N (87%) followed by coated urea (76%) and NBPT-treated urea (69%). Split fertilization of ammonium sulfate-urea significantly lowered both NH₃-N and N₂O-N EF values but split urea treatment had no impact over one-time application of urea. Both NBPT and DCD-treated urea treatments lowered CO₂-C flux but had no effect on CH₄-C flux. Overall, application of coated urea or urea with NPBT or DCD could be used as a mitigation strategy for reducing NH₃ and N₂O emissions in subtropical wheat production in Southern USA.     

基于台架测试的我国船用柴油机废气排放因子

基于燃油消耗和基于船舶活动两种方法准确测算我国水路运输行业的废气排放量,对我国生产的分别满足国际海事组织(International Maritime Organization,IMO)NO_xTierⅠ、TierⅡ标准的76台和113台船用柴油机母型机排放测试报告进行了统计分析,研究确定了二冲程主机、四冲程主机和四冲程副机NO_x、CO、HC和CO_2基于燃油的排放因子和基于做功的排放因子.结果表明,不同类型柴油机NO_x、CO、HC和CO_2基于燃油的排放因子分别为30.67~76.55、3.01~6.13、1.25~2.24和3 141.15~3 165.63 kg·t~(-1);不同类型柴油机NO_x、CO、HC和CO_2基于做功的排放因子分别为6.83~13.64、0.61~1.35、0.21~0.50和534.04~745.18 g·(k W·h)~(-1).不同类型柴油机基于做功的排放因子与柴油机负荷密切相关,并可用幂函数或二次多项式来表达其关系;另外,通过对国外机构采用的排放因子进行简单的修正难以真实反映我国船用柴油机排放技术水平.相关研究结果为我国船舶排放清单的测算提供了具有适用性的基础数据.     

“双碳”背景下北京市农业温室气体排放评估及“十四五”时期减排潜力预测

为实现"双碳"目标,北京市相关规划对"十四五"时期农业领域温室气体排放控制提出严格要求.通过收集北京市农业活动水平数据,计算和筛选排放因子,评估北京市2020年农业温室气体排放量,分析排放特征;结合北京市自然条件和种养模式,筛选适宜的减排措施,预测"十四五"时期温室气体减排潜力及分布,分析优化措施减排效果,并提出相关政策建议.结果表明,北京市2020年农业温室气体排放总量（以CO₂-eq计,下同）为45.6万t,以动物肠道发酵和动物粪便管理排放为主,贡献率分别为50.7%和26.7%,主要集中在顺义区、密云区、延庆区等畜禽养殖规模较大的郊区;预测"十四五"期间,北京市农业温室气体减排潜力为10.7万t.动物肠道发酵为减排潜力最大的排放源（6.0万t）,其次为动物粪便管理（3.7万t）;CH₄的减排潜力大于N₂ O;减排潜力主要分布在密云区、顺义区、延庆区、房山区和通州区等畜禽养殖规模较大的郊区;调整饲料结构和优化粪便管理方式为效果最明显的减排措施.     

Development of Indicators to Assess Economic Vulnerabilities to Changes in Ecosystem Services: Case Study of Counties in Maryland,USA

We develop indicators showing the relative environmental burdens that human activities place on locales for a given level of economic benefits. The main purpose is to develop tools that allow us to examine the potential vulnerabilities within economies to changes in resource conditions. The indicators of pollution emission or resource consumption per job can be used to identify potential challenges to resource and industry managers and to compare areas in terms of their ability to adapt to change. For example, if a large number of area jobs are dependent on abundant water, this indicates a vulnerability to a reduction in water availability for industrial use. We develop a case study for 23 counties and 1 city in Maryland to examine the usefulness and limitations of the indicators. Our case study demonstrates that the indicators provide an informative view into patterns of local economic activity and use of an area’s environmental goods and services. In contrast to patterns for total environmental burdens (e.g., total SO₂ emissions) that are typically reported, the rates of environmental burden per job are not simply correlated with high or low economic output. Thus, the indicators represent distinct patterns of environmental burdens per job that reflect reliance on environmental services. The indicators have some limitations when used at this fine scale because they can misrepresent conditions in counties in which economic sectors are dominated by one or a few businesses. For this reason, the indicators are best used as a regional screening tool.     

不同城市机动车尾气排放比较及数据可分享性评价

针对我国绝大多数城市缺乏机动车相关基础数据的实际国情,探讨一种基础数据共享的可能性,用于城市机动车尾气排放清单的计算.以北京、上海、天津及成都4个城市为例,通过综合这些城市现有的机动车相关的基础数据（如机动车保有量,车龄分布,基于驾驶特征的发动机比功率（VSP）,外界环境等）,运用模型预测他们的机动车尾气排放并和相应城...     

中国碳交易下的工业碳排放与减排机制研究

中国工业的高能耗投入在带来经济快速增长的同时也导致碳排放的急剧增加,作为全球最大的碳排放国,中国肩负着巨大的减排责任。为了探索减排方式,中国自2013年先后在7个省市建立了碳排放交易市场。研究碳交易对工业碳排放的影响及作用机制,有助于科学评价政策,为全国工业碳交易市场的推行提供合理的建议。本文利用中国30个省份规模工业碳排放数据,首先分别采用DID和PSM-DID方法考察了碳排放交易对工业碳排放和碳强度的影响,其次在使用SFA测算出各省规模工业能源技术效率和能源配置效率的基础上探讨了碳交易发挥作用的机制和影响大小。结果发现:(1)碳交易对试点地区规模工业的碳排放量和碳强度有显著抑制作用,分别使二者下降4.8%和5.2%;(2)碳交易分别使试点地区的工业能源技术效率和配置效率显著提高0.03和0.08;(3)碳交易发挥作用的机制与规模工业的能源技术效率有关。能源技术效率的减排效应大于能源配置效率的增排效应,最终导致政策具有减排作用。这些结论说明,想要推进中国碳交易市场的发展并使其长期发挥减排作用,必须要加快碳交易市场相关配套制度的改革,包括碳价机制和配额分配机制等,使市场交易与政府调控有效结合;淘汰落后产能,增加研发投入,鼓励工业企业使用新技术;转变能源消费结构,倡导新能源和清洁能源的使用。